by Rod Pearson
Thursday, May 28, 2026
Game Time: 6:45 pm ET, Friday, May 29, 2026
Venue: Nationals Park, Washington, DC
Where to Watch: MLB TV
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline odds: Padres -110, Nationals -110; Over/Under: 9 runs
Bet365: Moneyline odds: Padres -110, Nationals -110; Over/Under: 8.5 runs
BetMGM: Moneyline odds: Padres -110, Nationals -110; Over/Under: 9 runs
Season Record
San Diego Padres: 31-24 (3rd place, NL West)
Washington Nationals: 29-28 (3rd place, NL East)
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Recent Form
San Diego Padres: 4-6 last 10
Washington Nationals: 6-4 last 10
San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals Preview and Analysis
The Padres are entering this series off a loss and got swept in their 3-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 31-24 record overall and have a road record of 15-8. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Nationals on Friday and they have Thursday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 29th in the MLB with a .652 OPS. Walker Buehler was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Lucas Giolito is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA this season. His team won both games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 0 ER, 0 HR, and 5 BB with 2 SO on 4 hits through 5 IP against the Athletics.
The Nationals are entering this series off a loss and won their 3-game series against the Cleveland Guardians 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 29-28 record overall and have a home record of 10-16. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Padres on Friday and they have Thursday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 4th in the MLB with a .744 OPS. PJ Poulin was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Andrew Alvarez is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 1-0 with a 2.84 ERA this season. His team won all 4 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 earned runs, 0 homers, and 1 walk with 1 strikeout on 1 hit through 1.1 innings pitched against the Atlanta Braves.
Padres vs Nationals Prediction
The current betting odds have the Padres listed as a pick ‘em in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Padres have looked good in their games this season with their 31-24 record overall which has them right in the middle of the NL West. They have been a better road team too with their 15-8 road record this year. Meanwhile, the Nationals have looked good in their games this season with their 29-28 record overall which has them right in the middle of the NL East. They have looked terrible in their own ballpark though with their 10-16 home record this season. The Nationals are 6-4 in their last 10 games and have looked good compared to the Padres who are 4-6 in their last 10 games, but the Padres have been a better road team this year and will be looking to bounce back after getting swept at home by the Phillies. The Nationals have also looked a lot worse at home this year and the Padres are going to have a big edge with their pitching here. Giolito is on the mound for the Padres in this one and he has looked good this season. He is 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA and the team has been having success with him. He has only started in 2 games this year, but his team won both of those games and he is off a great start in which he gave up no runs in 5 innings. The Nationals are going with Alvarez in this one and he has also looked good this year, but he isn't going to have a deep start in this one. He is 1-0 with a 2.84 ERA and his team has won all 4 of the games he has appeared in, but he only pitched 1 inning in his last outing and the Nationals do have a terrible bullpen to back him up. The Nationals have one of the best offenses in the league while the Padres have one of the worst, but the opposite is true for each respective pitching staff and the Nationals won't last with a bullpen day here. This is a good opportunity for the Padres to bounce back after getting swept in their last series, so look for them to take advantage of this pitching matchup. The best way to place a bet here is on the Padres to win this game.
Padres Nationals Prediction: Our MLB Pick for Friday, May 29, 2026 (6:45 pm ET start time) is Padres 3 Nationals 2.
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MLB Betting Trends
San Diego Padres: 40-30 (+9.8 units) on the moneyline against NL East opponents. 220-170 (+27.9 units) on the moneyline in all games. 104-88 (+21.3 units) on the moneyline in road games. 17-10 UNDER after getting shut out.
Washington Nationals: 26-42 (-7.4 units) on the moneyline against NL West opponents. 81-109 (-14.6 units) on the moneyline in home games. 27-31 (-10.1 units) on the moneyline when the money line is -100 to -150. 3-1 UNDER at home when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%).
Key Injuries
San Diego Padres: L. Campusano (C) Ten Day IL - Toe. M. Waldron (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Arm. J. Cronenworth (2B) Seven Day IL - Concussion. G. Marquez (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. B. Hoeing (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. N. Pivetta (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. J. Musgrove (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Brito (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.
Washington Nationals: M. Kranick (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Irvin (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. K. Waldichuk (SP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. C. Henry (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. J. Gray (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. D. Herz (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. T. Williams (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.
Notable Quotes
“In my opinion, it has nothing to do with him. This is the Padres hitting. This is the Padres organization. How we go about taking at-bats, it’s on all of us, and more specifically on me.” - Craig Stammen on hitting coach Steven Sousa Jr and the Padres offensive troubles this season.
“I think this is who we are.” - Blake Butera on his team’s offensive success this season.
Starting Lineups
San Diego Padres
Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) 2B
Miguel Andujar (R) 3B
Gavin Sheets (L) 1B
Manny Machado (R) DH
Xander Bogaerts (R) SS
Ramón Laureano (R) LF
Jackson Merrill (L) CF
Nick Castellanos (R) RF
Freddy Fermin (R) C
Washington Nationals
James Wood (L) RF
Luis García Jr. (L) 1B
Curtis Mead (R) 3B
CJ Abrams (L) SS
Daylen Lile (L) LF
José Tena (L) DH
Jorbit Vivas (L) 2B
Drew Millas (S) C
Jacob Young (R) CF
Statistical Leaders
San Diego Padres
Batting Average: Luis Campusano (.288)
Hits: Fernando Tatis (52)
Home Runs: Gavin Sheets (9)
RBI: Manny Machado (27)
Stolen Bases: Fernando Tatis (14)
Wins: Randy Vásquez (5)
Saves: Mason Miller (16)
ERA: Yuki Matsui (0.00)
Washington Nationals
Batting Average: CJ Abrams (.294)
Hits: CJ Abrams (60)
Home Runs: James Wood (15)
RBI: CJ Abrams (47)
Stolen Bases: Nasim Nuñez (22)
Wins: Foster Griffin (6)
Saves: Gus Varland (4)
ERA: Orlando Ribalta (2.13)
Managers:
San Diego Padres: Craig Stammen (1st season)
Washington Nationals: Blake Butera (1st season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
