San Diego Padres vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, Preview and Odds - 08/28/2026

Game Time: 7:10 pm ET, Friday, August 28, 2026

Venue:  Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL

Where to Watch:  MLB TV

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Padres +109, Rays -132; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Padres +110, Rays -130; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Padres +110, Rays -130; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

San Diego Padres:  72-62 (2nd place, NL West)

Tampa Bay Rays:  79-54 (1st place, AL East)

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San Diego Padres:  6-4 last 10

Tampa Bay Rays:  5-5 last 10

The Padres are entering this series off a win and lost their 3-game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 72-62 record overall and have a road record of 31-34. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Rays on Friday and they have Thursday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 23rd in the MLB with a .703 OPS. Randy Vasquez was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Casey Mize is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 5-7 with a 3.44 ERA this season. His team won their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 4 ER, 3 HR, and 1 BB with 0 SO on 4 hits through 2.2 IP against the Minnesota Twins.

The Rays are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the Detroit Tigers 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 79-54 record overall and have a home record of 43-23. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Padres on Friday and they have Thursday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 7th in the MLB with a .731 OPS. Freddy Peralta was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Shane McClanahan is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 9-6 with a 3.10 ERA this season. His team won 3 of their last 4 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 earned runs, 0 homers, and 1 walk with 5 strikeouts on 4 hits through 5 innings pitched against the Baltimore Orioles.

The current betting odds have the Rays listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Rays have looked great in their games this season with their 79-54 record overall which has them right at the top of the AL East with one of the best records in MLB. They have looked great in their own ballpark too with their 43-23 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Padres have looked really good in their games this season with their 72-62 record overall which has them right near the top of the NL West. They haven't been a great road team though with their 31-34 road record this year. The Padres are 6-4 in their last 10 games and have been rolling lately, but they just lost their last series at home to the Pirates with their offense starting to cool off. The Rays are only 5-5 in their last 10 games, but they are coming off a series win over the Tigers and they do have the stronger offense to lean on here. McClanahan is on the mound for the Rays in this one and he has looked great this season. He is 9-6 with a 3.10 ERA and he hasn't been giving up many runs lately. He is coming off another great start giving up no runs which has been a common theme for him all year and the team has been having a lot of success with him lately too, winning 3 of their last 4 games with him starting. Mize is on the mound for the Padres in this one and he has also looked good this season. He is 5-7 with a 3.44 ERA, but he hasn't looked as good since getting traded from the Tigers. The team has won 3 games in a row now with him starting, but he has had some bad starts with them and just gave up 4 earned runs in his last start too, not even making it 3 full innings. The Rays have the slight edge here with the better starter, the better offense, and they have looked like a different team in their home games this year. The best way to place a bet here is on the Rays to win this game. 

Padres Rays Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Friday, August 28, 2026 (7:10 pm ET start time) is Rays 3 Padres 1.

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San Diego Padres: 261-208 (+30.7 units) on the moneyline in all games. 120-114 (+12.4 units) on the moneyline in road games. 99-94 (+30.3 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or higher. 17-8 UNDER vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start.

Tampa Bay Rays: 93-120 (-20.4 units) on the moneyline when playing against a team with a winning record. 18-27 (-7.7 units) on the moneyline vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better. 157-160 (-5.7 units) on the moneyline vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better. 9-3 UNDER against NL West opponents.

San Diego Padres:  J. Estrada (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. C. Mize (SP) Day To Day - Ankle. M. Andujar (DH) Ten Day IL - Wrist. S. Taylor (LF) Ten Day IL - Oblique. J. Adam (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. L. Giolito (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. R. Laureano (LF) Sixty Day IL - Hip. N. Pivetta (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. B. Hoeing (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Musgrove (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Tampa Bay Rays:  V. Mesa Jr. (RF) Ten Day IL - Hamstring. G. Jax (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. B. Williamson (2B) Ten Day IL - Hamstring. J. Fraley (RF) Sixty Day IL - Groin. C. Wilcox (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Back. J. Heasley (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. G. Lux (LF) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. R. Pepiot (SP) Sixty Day IL - Hip. E. Uceta (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder.

“The strength of our bullpen is the length of it. Not just the top guys. But everybody in that ‘pen.” - Craig Stammen after his team’s win against the Pirates in their game on Wednesday.

“Encouraged by everything he did. I think he’s built off every outing, but certainly the last two innings in Baltimore [on Friday]. More impressive, and it carried into today’s start. Big, big win and he set the tone early on.” - Kevin Cash on Freddy Peralta after his team’s win against the Tigers in their game on Wednesday.

Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) RF

Jake Cronenworth (L) 2B

Manny Machado (R) 3B

Ty France (R) 1B

Jackson Merrill (L) CF

Luis Rengifo (S) LF

Gavin Sheets (L) DH

Xander Bogaerts (R) SS

Freddy Fermin (R) C

Yandy Díaz (R) DH

Jonathan Aranda (L) 1B

Junior Caminero (R) 3B

Liam Hicks (L) C

Chandler Simpson (L) LF

Jonny DeLuca (R) RF

Richie Palacios (L) 2B

Jorge Mateo (R) SS

Cedric Mullins (L) CF

Batting Average:  Gage Workman (.333)

Hits:  Fernando Tatis (147)

Home Runs:  Manny Machado (24)

RBI:  Manny Machado (72)

Stolen Bases:  Fernando Tatis (30)

Wins:  Randy Vásquez (10)

Saves:  Mason Miller (32)

ERA:  Mason Miller (0.96)

Batting Average:  Liam Hicks (.309)

Hits:  Yandy Díaz (152)

Home Runs:  Junior Caminero (35)

RBI:  Junior Caminero (84)

Stolen Bases:  Chandler Simpson (35)

Wins:  Drew Rasmussen (14)

Saves:  Bryan Baker (38)

ERA:  Manuel Rodríguez (0.00)

Managers:

San Diego Padres: Craig Stammen (1st season)

Tampa Bay Rays: Kevin Cash (12th season)