San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners Prediction, Preview and Odds - 08/26/2025

Game Time: 9:40 pm ET, Tuesday, August 26, 2025

Venue:  T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA

Where to Watch:  MLB.tv, PADRES.tv, ROOT Sports NW

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Padres -101, Mariners -121; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Padres +100, Mariners -120; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Padres +100, Mariners -120; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

San Diego Padres:  74-57 (2nd place, NL West)

Seattle Mariners:  70-61 (2nd place, AL West)

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San Diego Padres:  5-5 last 10

Seattle Mariners:  3-7 last 10

The Padres are entering this series off a loss and won their 3-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 74-57 record overall and have a road record of 31-35. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Mariners on Tuesday with the series opener still to be played on Monday. Their offense ranks 20th in the MLB with a .704 OPS. JP Sears is their starting pitcher on Monday while Dylan Cease is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 6-11 with a 4.71 ERA this season. His team won 4 of their last 5 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 4 ER, 2 HR, and 2 BB with 7 SO on 6 hits through 5 IP against the San Francisco Giants.

The Mariners are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the Athletics 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 70-61 record overall and have a home record of 39-26. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Padres on Tuesday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Monday. Their offense ranks 12th in the MLB with a .727 OPS. Bryce Miller is their starting pitcher on Monday while Luis Castillo is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 8-7 with a 3.57 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 3 earned runs, 1 homer, and 2 walks with 2 strikeouts on 10 hits through 4 innings pitched against the Philadelphia Phillies.

The current betting odds have the Mariners listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Mariners have looked good in their games this season with their 70-61 record overall which has them right near the top of the AL West. They have looked great in their own ballpark too with their 39-26 home record this year. Meanwhile, the Padres have looked really good in their games this season with their 74-57 record overall which has them right near the top of the NL West and in the division race. They haven't been a good road team though with their 31-35 road record this year. The Padres have been the hotter team lately as they are 5-5 in their last 10 games while the Mariners are only 3-7, but the Mariners do have the better pitching matchup in this one and can take advantage of the road troubles that the Padres have had this season. Cease is on the mound for the Padres in this one and he hasn't looked good this season. He is 6-11 with a 4.71 ERA and he has looked a lot worse on the road this year. His team has won 4 of their last 5 games with him starting, but that hasn't been a common theme for them this season and Cease did give up 4 earned runs in his last start too. Castillo is on the mound for the Mariners in this one and he has looked good this season. He is 8-7 with a 3.57 ERA and hasn't been giving up many runs lately. He did give up 3 earned runs in his last start, but that hasn't been a common theme for him so he will be looking to have a better start here and the team has still won 2 of their last 3 games with him starting too. The Mariners already have the edge in this one with their pitching, but they also have the stronger offense to help out. The best way to place a bet here is on the Mariners to win this game. 

Padres Mariners Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Tuesday, August 26, 2025 (9:40 pm ET start time) is Mariners 7 Padres 1.

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San Diego Padres: 254-209 (+5.3 units) on the moneyline in all games. 74-77 (+17.2 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or higher. 151-133 (+7.2 units) on the moneyline vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better. 27-18 UNDER against AL West opponents.

Seattle Mariners: 243-212 (-12.5 units) on the moneyline in all games. 174-127 (-11.2 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 63-62 (-10.6 units) on the moneyline in an inter-league game. 23-14 UNDER against NL West opponents.

San Diego Padres:  J. Merrill (CF) Ten Day IL - Ankle. M. King (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Knee. J. Brito (RP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. J. Musgrove (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Seattle Mariners:  D. Canzone (RF) Day To Day - Arm. T. Thornton (RP) Sixty Day IL - Achilles. L. Evans (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. G. Santos (RP) Sixty Day IL - Knee. R. Bliss (2B) Sixty Day IL - Biceps.

“We’re playing outstanding baseball. I don’t tend to get too caught up in today. Today we were disappointed; I’m disappointed. All right, it didn’t happen for us. We couldn’t be more thrilled. We’re tied for our division lead and expect to go win it.” - Mike Shildt after his team’s loss against the LA Dodgers in their game on Sunday.

“He's starting to set a bar that's equal to nobody else that's done this. And that's the newsworthy part of this thing is it's getting to a point where you can't compare him to anybody.” - Dan Wilson after his team’s win against the A’s in their game on Sunday.

Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) RF

Luis Arraez (L) 1B

Manny Machado (R) 3B

Ryan O'Hearn (L) DH

Xander Bogaerts (R) SS

Gavin Sheets (L) LF

Ramón Laureano (R) CF

Jake Cronenworth (L) 2B

Elias Díaz (R) C

Randy Arozarena (R) LF

Cal Raleigh (S) C

Julio Rodríguez (R) CF

Eugenio Suárez (R) 3B

Josh Naylor (L) 1B

Mitch Garver (R) DH

Jorge Polanco (S) 2B

J.P. Crawford (L) SS

Victor Robles (R) RF

Batting Average:  Ramón Laureano (.325)

Hits:  Manny Machado (147)

Home Runs:  Manny Machado (21)

RBI:  Manny Machado (78)

Stolen Bases:  Fernando Tatis (26)

Wins:  Nick Pivetta (13)

Saves:  Robert Suarez (34)

ERA:  Bradgley Rodriguez (0.00)

Batting Average:  Dominic Canzone (.289)

Hits:  Julio Rodríguez (139)

Home Runs:  Cal Raleigh (49)

RBI:  Cal Raleigh (106)

Stolen Bases:  Randy Arozarena (24)

Wins:  Bryan Woo (11)

Saves:  Andrés Muñoz (30)

ERA:  Jhonathan Díaz (0.00)

Managers:

San Diego Padres: Mike Shildt (2nd season)

Seattle Mariners: Dan Wilson (2nd season)