San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/16/2026

Game Time: 7:15 pm ET, Saturday, May 16, 2026

Venue:  T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA 

Where to Watch:  MLB TV, FOX

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Padres +135, Mariners -160; Over/Under:  7 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Padres +135, Mariners -160; Over/Under:  7 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Padres +135, Mariners -160; Over/Under:  7 runs

San Diego Padres:  25-18 (1st place, NL West)

Seattle Mariners:  22-23 (2nd place, AL West)

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San Diego Padres:  5-5 last 10

Seattle Mariners:  6-4 last 10

The Padres are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 25-18 record overall and have a road record of 12-8. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Mariners on Saturday with the series opener still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 28th in the MLB with a .659 OPS. Randy Vásquez is their starting pitcher on Friday while Walker Buehler is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 2-2 with a 5.20 ERA this season. His team won their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 2 ER, 1 HR, and 0 BB with 2 SO on 3 hits through 6 IP against the St Louis Cardinals.

The Mariners are entering this series off a win and won their 4-game series against the Houston Astros 3-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 22-23 record overall and have a home record of 12-11. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Padres on Saturday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 14th in the MLB with a .708 OPS. Emerson Hancock is their starting pitcher on Friday while Logan Gilbert is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 2-3 with a 3.78 ERA this season. His team won 3 of their last 4 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 earned runs, 0 homers, and 0 walks with 9 strikeouts on 1 hit through 6 innings pitched against the Chicago White Sox.

The current betting odds have the Mariners listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Padres have looked great in their games this season with their 25-18 record overall which has them right at the top of the NL West. They have been a good road team too with their 12-8 road record this year. Meanwhile, the Mariners haven't looked great in their games this season with their 22-23 record overall which has them right in the middle of the AL West. They have looked better in their own ballpark though with their 12-11 home record this season. The Mariners didn't have a hot start to the season after almost making the World Series last year, but they are 6-4 in their last 10 games and are starting to turn things around now. The Padres had a really hot start to the season, still leading their division over the Dodgers, but they are 5-5 in their last 10 games and starting to cool off now. They weren't great in their last series against the Brewers either and they don't have a great offense. They are going with Buehler in this one, but he hasn't looked good this season. He is 2-2 with a 5.20 ERA and has been giving up quite a few runs in his starts. He is coming off a good start in which he only gave up 2 earned runs and the team has won 2 games in a row now with him starting, but that hasn't been a common theme for him this season and he is going to have trouble against this better offense that has been getting hot over the last week. The Mariners are going with Gilbert in this one and he hasn't looked bad this season. He is 2-3 with a 3.78 ERA and he has been a solid starter for the Mariners for years now. He is coming off a great start in which he gave up no runs in 6 innings, starting to turn things around now, and the team has also had more success with him lately, winning 3 of the last 4 games he started. The Mariners are starting to get hot now with their bats and they can definitely take advantage of this pitching matchup with the way Buehler has been pitching this season. The best way to place a bet here is on the Mariners to win this game. 

Padres Mariners Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Saturday, May 16, 2026 (7:15 pm ET start time) is Mariners 6 Padres 2.

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San Diego Padres: 214-164 (+27 units) on the moneyline in all games. 101-88 (+17.2 units) on the moneyline in road games. 155-116 (+20.9 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 25-13 UNDER against AL West opponents. 44-28 UNDER vs. an AL team with a slugging percentage .410 or worse on the season.

Seattle Mariners: 203-178 (-8.5 units) on the moneyline in all games. 127-124 (-12.9 units) on the moneyline vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better. 144-128 (-12.1 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 8-3 UNDER revenging a same season 3 game sweep at the hands of their opponents. 6-3 UNDER in an inter-league game.

San Diego Padres:  L. Campusano (C) Ten Day IL - Toe. J. Cronenworth (2B) Seven Day IL - Concussion. G. Marquez (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. B. Hoeing (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. N. Pivetta (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. J. Musgrove (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Brito (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Seattle Mariners:  C. Raleigh (C) Ten Day IL - Side. G. Speier (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder Inflammation. W. Wilson (3B) Ten Day IL - Thumb. M. Brash (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Lat. M. Mastrobuoni (3B) Sixty Day IL - Calf. P. Wisdom (1B) Ten Day IL - Oblique. V. Robles (RF) Ten Day IL - Pectoral. C. Vargas (RP) Sixty Day IL - Lat. L. Evans (SP) Sixty Day IL - Arm.

“Maybe he’s playing there a little more than I expected. But Jake (Cronenworth) being injured and (Sung-Mun) Song being new to the Major Leagues probably has something to do with that as we try to create a little more offense.” - Craig Stammen on Fernando Tatis Jr playing 2nd base more this season. 

“It was just a play on defense and it kind of was awkward for him. So as a precaution, we said, ‘Let’s get you out tonight.'” - Dan Wilson on the injury to Cal Raleigh.

Xander Bogaerts (R) SS

Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) 2B

Manny Machado (R) 3B

Miguel Andujar (R) DH

Gavin Sheets (L) 1B

Ramón Laureano (R) LF

Nick Castellanos (R) RF

Freddy Fermin (R) C

Bryce Johnson (S) CF

Brendan Donovan (L) 3B

Julio Rodríguez (R) DH

Josh Naylor (L) 1B

Randy Arozarena (R) LF

Luke Raley (L) CF

J.P. Crawford (L) SS

Dominic Canzone (L) RF

Mitch Garver (R) C

Cole Young (L) 2B

Batting Average:  Miguel Andujar (.289)

Hits:  Xander Bogaerts (39)

Home Runs:  Xander Bogaerts (7)

RBI:  Xander Bogaerts (23)

Stolen Bases:  Fernando Tatis (10)

Wins:  Randy Vásquez (4)

Saves:  Mason Miller (13)

ERA:  Yuki Matsui (0.00)

Batting Average:  Jhonny Pereda (.400)

Hits:  Randy Arozarena (49)

Home Runs:  Luke Raley (10)

RBI:  Luke Raley (27)

Stolen Bases:  Randy Arozarena (11)

Wins:  George Kirby (5)

Saves:  Andrés Muñoz (8)

ERA:  Matt Brash (0.00)

Managers:

San Diego Padres: Craig Stammen (1st season)

Seattle Mariners: Dan Wilson (3rd season)