San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/15/2023

Game Time: 1:05 pm ET, Saturday, July 15, 2023

Venue:  Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA

Where to Watch:  MLB Network

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Padres -135, Phillies +115; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Padres -135, Phillies +115; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Padres -135, Phillies +115; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

San Diego Padres:  43-47 (4th place, NL West)

Philadelphia Phillies:  48-41 (3rd place, NL East)

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San Diego Padres:  6-4 last 10

Philadelphia Phillies:  6-4 last 10

The Padres are entering this series on a 2 game winning streak and won their 3-game series against the New York Mets 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 43-47 record overall and have a road record of 18-24. This is the 2nd game of a 4-game series with the Phillies on Saturday with the series opener of this series still to be played on Friday. This is also the 1st game of a double-header to be played on Saturday. Their offense ranks 15th in the MLB with a .726 OPS. Yu Darvish is their starting pitcher on Friday while Blake Snell is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 6-7 with a 2.85 ERA this season. His team won their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 ER, 0 HR, and 3 BB with 11 Ks on 1 hit through 6 IP against the New York Mets.

The Phillies are entering this series on a 2 game losing streak and lost their 3-game series against the Miami Marlins 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 48-41 record overall and have a home record of 22-16. This is the 2nd game of a 4-game series with the Padres on Saturday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Friday. This is also the 1st game of a double-header to be played on Saturday. Their offense ranks 11th in the MLB with a .742 OPS. Cristopher Sánchez is their starting pitcher on Friday while Taijuan Walker is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 10-3 with a 4.02 ERA this season. His team won their last 6 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 4 earned runs, 1 homer, and 5 BB with 8 strikeouts on 5 hits through 7 innings played against the Tampa Bay Rays.

The current betting odds have the Phillies listed as a slight underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 1 of a double-header on Saturday and the Phillies are going to be looking to keep on their hot streak here as they were really hot going into the All-Star break. The Padres were also really hot going into the break but they are still under .500 this season as they have struggled all year and it will be much harder for them to get back on track here after that break in their momentum. The Padres have already had one of the worst offenses in the MLB this season while the Phillies have been getting really hot on offense and they also have a solid starter with Walker on the mound. Walker has been lights out all season and hasn't been giving up many runs in his starts lately at all. He won't have a problem shutting down this weak Padres offense at home while the Padres struggle more with Snell on the mound. Snell has been really good in his starts lately but the Phillies offense has been really hot and even if they don't get to Snell for some runs here, the Padres bullpen has been falling apart lately and the Phillies will definitely be able to put up some runs on them. The Phillies have also been pitching a lot better out of their bullpen so they have a great edge with the pitching and their offense in this home game. The best way to place a bet here is on the Phillies to win this game.

Padres Phillies Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Saturday, July 15, 2023 (1:05 pm ET start time) is Phillies 5 Padres 1.

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San Diego Padres: 43-47 (-19.4 units) on the moneyline in all games. 18-24 (-10 units) on the moneyline in road games. 21-9 UNDER when the money line is +125 to -125. 31-15 UNDER when the total is 8.5 to 10. 

Philadelphia Phillies: 21-11 (+9.1 units) on the moneyline when the total is 8 to 8.5. 10-5 (+4.7 units) on the moneyline at home when the money line is +125 to -125. 25-18 UNDER as a home underdog of +100 or higher. 21-14 UNDER in home games.

San Diego Padres:  D. Carlton (RP) Late July - Elbow. M. Wacha (SP) Late July - Shoulder. E. Rosario (3B) Late July - Ankle. R. Suarez (SP) Late July - Arm. S. Wilson (SP) Late July - Pectoral. X. Bogaerts (SS) Prob Fri - Wrist. R. Knehr (SP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. L. Campusano (C) Late July - Thumb. D. Pomeranz (RP) Out indefinitely - Forearm.

Philadelphia Phillies:  J. Harrison (2B) Out indefinitely - Wrist. N. Song (SP) Late July - Back. S. Dominguez (RP) Late July - Oblique. B. Harper (DH) Ques Fri - Elbow. J. Alvarado (RP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. R. Hoskins (1B) out for season - Knee.

“It feels good taking two of three from them, especially going up against Scherzer today; tough competition, really good pitcher with a lot of accolades. Manny getting us started with a three-run lead early there really set the tone for us and allowed me to go out and be really aggressive.” - Joe Musgrove after their win against the Mets in their game on Sunday.

“We lost two out of three against these guys and that’s going to happen. But I feel really good about this club. I love the rotation, the bullpen’s been great and I think there’s more offense there. We haven’t peaked there and we will.” - Rob Thomson after his team’s loss against the Marlins in their game on Sunday.

Ha-Seong Kim (R) 2B

Juan Soto (L) LF

Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) RF

Manny Machado (R) 3B

Xander Bogaerts (R) SS

Jake Cronenworth (L) 1B

Gary Sanchez (R) C

Rougned Odor (L) DH

Trent Grisham (L) CF

Kyle Schwarber (L) DH

Trea Turner (R) SS

Nick Castellanos (R) RF

Alec Bohm (R) 1B

J.T. Realmuto (R) C

Bryson Stott (L) 2B

Edmundo Sosa (R) 3B

Brandon Marsh (L) LF

Cristian Pache (R) CF

Batting Average:  Matthew Batten (.500)

Hits:  Fernando Tatis (85)

Home Runs:  Fernando Tatis (16)

RBI:  Manny Machado (49)

Stolen Bases:  Ha-Seong Kim (16)

Wins:  Michael Wacha (8)

Saves:  Josh Hader (21)

ERA:  Pedro Avila (0.00)

Batting Average:  Cristian Pache (.327)

Hits:  Nick Castellanos (104)

Home Runs:  Kyle Schwarber (22)

RBI:  Alec Bohm (57)

Stolen Bases:  Trea Turner (19)

Wins:  Taijuan Walker (10)

Saves:  Craig Kimbrel (14)

ERA:  Jose Alvarado (1.38)

Managers:

San Diego Padres: Bob Melvin (2nd season)

Philadelphia Phillies: Rob Thomson (2nd season)