San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction, Preview and Odds - 08/06/2026

Game Time: 9:40 pm ET, Thursday, August 6, 2026

Venue:  Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ

Where to Watch:  MLB TV

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Padres -105, Diamondbacks -114; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Padres -105, Diamondbacks -115; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Padres -105, Diamondbacks -115; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

San Diego Padres:  59-55 (3rd place, NL West)

Arizona Diamondbacks:  60-54 (2nd place, NL West)

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San Diego Padres:  8-2 last 10

Arizona Diamondbacks:  5-5 last 10

The Padres are entering this series off a win and won their 4-game series against the San Francisco Giants 3-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 59-55 record overall and have a road record of 27-30. This is the series finale of a 4-game series with the Diamondbacks on Thursday with the 3rd game still to be played on Wednesday. The Padres lost the series opener on Monday and won the 2nd game on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 24th in the MLB with a .696 OPS. Casey Mize is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Walker Buehler is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 6-5 with a 5.18 ERA this season. His team won their last 4 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 3 ER, 1 HR, and 2 BB with 1 SO on 8 hits through 4.1 IP against the San Francisco Giants.

The Diamondbacks are entering this series off a loss and won their 3-game series against the Cleveland Guardians 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 60-54 record overall and have a home record of 32-23. This is the 4th game of a 4-game series with the Padres on Thursday with the 3rd game of this series still to be played on Wednesday. The Diamondbacks won the 1st game of this series on Monday and lost the 2nd game on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 22nd in the MLB with a .706 OPS. Rookie pitcher Mitch Bratt is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while rookie pitcher Kohl Drake is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 0-0 with a 4.85 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 earned runs, 1 homer, and 1 walk with 6 strikeouts on 5 hits through 4 innings pitched against the Cleveland Guardians.

The current betting odds have the Padres listed as a slight underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Diamondbacks have looked good in their games this season with their 60-54 record overall which has them right near the top of the NL West. They have looked good in their own ballpark too with their 32-23 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Padres have looked good in their games this season with their 59-55 record overall which has them right in the middle of the NL West. They haven't been a great road team though with their 27-30 road record this year. The Diamondbacks were rolling just over a week ago, but now they have cooled off lately, going 5-5 in their last 10 games with their offense not putting up many runs. The Padres do have one of the worst offenses in MLB, but lately they have been putting up a ton of runs in their games. They also have a great pitching staff, adding to that at the trade deadline, and they have been rolling lately with their 8-2 record in their last 10 games. Buehler is on the mound for the Padres in this one and he hasn't looked great this season. He is 6-5 with a 5.18 ERA, but lately he has looked a lot better. He did give up 3 earned runs in his last start, but that hasn't been the case for him lately and the team has been having a ton of success with him too, winning 4 games in a row now with him starting. The Diamondbacks are going with drake in this one and he hasn't looked great this season. He is 0-0 with a 4.85 ERA and is still very inexperienced being in his rookie season. He is coming off a good start in which he gave up 2 earned runs and the team has won 2 of their last 3 games with him starting too, but that hasn't been a common theme in his few career starts. The Padres have been the much hotter team lately with the more reliable starter here and they are also going to be motivated to win after buying at the trade deadline. The best way to place a bet here is on the Padres to win this game. 

Padres Diamondbacks Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Thursday, August 6, 2026 (9:40 pm ET start time) is Padres 7 Diamondbacks 4.

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San Diego Padres: 21-24 (-4 units) on the moneyline vs. an NL team with a slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season. 21-29 (-6.3 units) on the moneyline when playing against a team with a winning record. 20-20 (-4.1 units) on the moneyline vs. a team with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.20 or worse. 26-19 UNDER vs. an NL team with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse on the season.

Arizona Diamondbacks: 228-210 (+7.4 units) on the moneyline in all games. 76-63 (+12.2 units) on the moneyline against division opponents. 114-111 (+16 units) on the moneyline when playing against a team with a winning record. 8-3 UNDER as a home underdog of +100 or higher.

San Diego Padres:  G. Sheets (1B) Day To Day - Plantar Fasciitis. M. Andujar (DH) Ten Day IL - Wrist. S. Taylor (LF) Ten Day IL - Oblique. J. Adam (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. D. Morgan (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Knee. L. Giolito (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. R. Laureano (LF) Sixty Day IL - Hip. N. Pivetta (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. B. Hoeing (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Musgrove (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Arizona Diamondbacks:  D. Jameson (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Hip. L. Gurriel Jr. (LF) Ten Day IL - Adductor. T. Troy (LF) Ten Day IL - Shoulder. Z. Gallen (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Lawlar (LF) Ten Day IL - Hamstring. M. Soroka (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Lower-Body. R. Nelson (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. B. Walston (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. C. Mena (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. A. Puk (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. C. Burnes (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Martinez (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. Saalfrank (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder.

“We’ve been using him in a little bit of a swing role, different kind of role. We needed him to start tonight, and he got out to a big lead and kind of went with it, threw a bunch of strikes.” - Craig Stammen after his team’s win against the Diamondbacks in their game on Tuesday.

"I actually like it. I believe in the 26 guys, and I know that we're going to get a new addition in here, so it's 26 plus one. Our guys are a good baseball team, and I'm super excited about knowing what direction these guys will go in, and I don't have to pull two or three different guys from other organizations and put them on our page." - Torey Lovullo on the trade deadline. 

Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) RF

Luis Rengifo (S) DH

Manny Machado (R) 3B

Ty France (R) 1B

Jackson Merrill (L) CF

Xander Bogaerts (R) SS

Freddy Fermin (R) C

Jake Cronenworth (L) 2B

Jase Bowen (R) LF

Corbin Carroll (L) RF

Geraldo Perdomo (S) SS

Max Kepler (L) LF

Ketel Marte (S) 2B

Nolan Arenado (R) 3B

Lars Nootbaar (L) DH

Tim Tawa (R) 1B

James McCann (R) C

Ryan Waldschmidt (R) CF

Batting Average:  Luis Rengifo (.339)

Hits:  Fernando Tatis (123)

Home Runs:  Manny Machado (23)

RBI:  Manny Machado (69)

Stolen Bases:  Fernando Tatis (26)

Wins:  Adrian Morejon (8)

Saves:  Mason Miller (28)

ERA:  Mason Miller (0.76)

Batting Average:  James McCann (.319)

Hits:  Ketel Marte (109)

Home Runs:  Ketel Marte (19)

RBI:  Ketel Marte (62)

Stolen Bases:  Geraldo Perdomo (17)

Wins:  Eduardo Rodriguez (10)

Saves:  Paul Sewald (24)

ERA:  Gerardo Carrillo (1.00)

Managers:

San Diego Padres: Craig Stammen (1st season)

Arizona Diamondbacks: Torey Lovullo (10th season)