San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/10/2026

Game Time: 7:30 pm ET, Sunday, May 10, 2026

Venue:  Target Center, Minneapolis, MN

Where to Watch:  NBC, Peacock

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Spurs -4.5, Timberwolves +4.5; Over/Under:  218.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Spurs -4.5, Timberwolves +4.5; Over/Under:  218.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Spurs -4.5, Timberwolves +4.5; Over/Under:  218.5 points

San Antonio Spurs:  62-20 (1st place, Southwest Division)

Minnesota Timberwolves:  49-33 (3rd place, Northwest Division)

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San Antonio Spurs:  7-3 last 10

Minnesota Timberwolves:  6-4 last 10

The Spurs are entering the playoffs with a 62-20 record overall this season and they were 29-12 in their road games where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 2 game winning streak with wins coming against the Minnesota Timberwolves twice in a row. Victor Wembanyama led the team in points in that game with 39 while De'Aaron Fox was next on the team with 17 points. Stephon Castle led the team in assists in that game with 12 while Victor Wembanyama led the team in rebounds with 15. They were 45.9% from the field, 36.4% from 3-point range, and 75.8% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 119.8 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 111.5 PPG against them. The Spurs have an ATS record of 52-37-2 this season and their O/U record is 40-51.

The Timberwolves are entering the playoffs with a 49-33 record overall this season and they were 26-15 in their home games where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 2 game losing streak with losses coming against the San Antonio Spurs twice in a row. Anthony Edwards led the team in points in that game with 32 while Naz Reid was next on the team with 18 points. Anthony Edwards led the team in assists in that game with 6 while Anthony Edwards led the team in rebounds with 14. They were 38.4% from the field, 35% from 3-point range, and 85.7% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 118 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 114.6 PPG against them. The Timberwolves have an ATS record of 41-50 this season and their O/U record is 40-51.

The current betting odds have the Spurs listed as a 4.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Spurs have looked great in their games this season with their 62-20 record overall which had them right near the top of the West with one of the best records in the entire NBA. They have been a great road team too with their 29-12 road record this year. Meanwhile, the Timberwolves have looked good in their games this season with their 49-33 record overall which had them in the top half of the West. They have looked good on their home court too with their 26-15 home record this season. This is game 4 of a 7-game series between the 2 seeded Spurs and the 6 seeded Timberwolves in the West for the 2nd round of the NBA playoffs. The Spurs are entering this game with a 2-1 series lead after winning game 3 by a score of 115-108. The Spurs have some momentum on their side now with 2 wins in a row and they are starting to roll again. They lost the 1st game of this series at home and it looked like the Timberwolves were going to give the Spurs trouble, but the Spurs answered the call with 2 wins and got the home advantage back in their favor. They had a similar path in the 1st round as they lost a home game to the Trail Blazers, but they won 3 games in a row after that and closed out the series. The Timberwolves are definitely the more experienced team in this series with their playoff success over the last few years, but the Spurs looked like one of the best teams in the NBA all season and they have the talent to win the championship. Edwards has also been banged up for the Timberwolves and even though he played a full game in game 3, it still wasn't enough for them to win it at home. The Timberwolves have also looked good on the defensive end in the playoffs, but they have fallen apart in this series as the Spurs have settled in. Look for the Spurs to continue rolling in this one and send this series back home with a chance to close it out. The best way to place a bet here is on the Spurs to cover the spread in this game. 

Spurs Timberwolves Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Sunday, May 10, 2026 (7:30 pm ET start time) is Spurs 117 Timberwolves 109.

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San Antonio Spurs: 26-17 ATS in road games. 6-2 ATS in all playoff games. 34-21 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record. 19-12 UNDER off a road win. 16-7 UNDER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%).

Minnesota Timberwolves: 11-19 ATS at home against Southwest division opponents. 2-5 1H ATS in the 4th game of a playoff series. 17-23 1H ATS in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5. 30-15 UNDER in home games. 27-17 UNDER after playing a home game.

San Antonio Spurs:  D. Jones Garcia (SF) Out For Season - Ankle.

Minnesota Timberwolves:  D. DiVincenzo (SG) Out For Season - Leg.

“We were going to not leave any bullets in the chamber in terms of keeping him on the bench. We were going to play him, and then if he fouled out, we deal with that.” - Mitch Johnson after his team’s win against the Timberwolves in the 3rd game of this series on Friday.

“He needed that. We needed that. He’s battling back to find a game like this, and it couldn’t have come at a better time. Unfortunately, we couldn’t get the result that went along with it.” - Chris Finch after his team’s loss against the Spurs in game 3 of this series on Friday.

PG De'Aaron Fox

SG Stephon Castle

SF Devin Vassell

PF Julian Champagnie

C Victor Wembanyama

PG Mike Conley

SG Anthony Edwards

SF Jaden McDaniels

PF Julius Randle

C Rudy Gobert

PPG: Victor Wembanyama (25)

APG: Stephon Castle (7.4)

Reb/G: Victor Wembanyama (11.5)

PPG: Anthony Edwards (28.8)

APG: Julius Randle (5)

Reb/G: Rudy Gobert (11.5)

Coaches:

San Antonio Spurs: Mitch Johnson (2nd season)

Minnesota Timberwolves: Chris Finch (6th season)