Sam Houston State Bearkats vs Texas Longhorns Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 09/20/2025

Game Time: 8:00 pm ET, Saturday, September 20, 2025

Venue:  Darrell K Royal Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX

Where to Watch:  ESPN+, SEC Network+

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  SHSU +39.5, Texas -39.5; Over/Under:  51.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  SHSU +39.5, Texas -39.5; Over/Under:  52 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  SHSU +39.5, Texas -39.5; Over/Under:  51.5 points

Sam Houston State Bearkats:  0-3 (0-1) (12th place, CUSA)

Texas Longhorns:  2-1 (0-0) (14th place, SEC)

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Sam Houston State Bearkats:  lost their last game on the road against the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 37-20.

Texas Longhorns:  won their last game at home against the UTEP Miners 27-10.

Sam Houston State is entering this game with a 0-3 record overall and they have a 0-1 record in their conference games too. They are 0-1 in their home games, 0-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against Hawaii 37-20. Mabrey Mettauer was the starting QB and he completed 12/18 passes for 91 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception before getting replaced by Landyn Locke who completed 6/10 passes for 68 yards and 1 TD. Mabrey Mettauer led the team in rushing yards with 45. Elijah Green led the receivers with 45 receiving yards on 3 receptions and 1 TD. JaMair Diaz and Antavious Fish each led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while JaMair Diaz, Alonzo Edwards Jr., and Christopher Eaton Jr. each led the defense in sacks with 1. Emon Allen came away with the only interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

Texas is entering this game with a 2-1 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their conference games too. They are 2-0 in their home games, 0-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against UTEP 27-10. Arch Manning was the starting QB and he completed 11/25 passes for 114 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. James Simon led the team in rushing yards with 67. Ryan Wingo led the receivers with 32 receiving yards on 3 receptions and 1 TD. Michael Taaffe led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Hero Kanu and Zina Umeozulu each led the defense in sacks with 1. Jelani McDonald and Graceson Littleton each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have Texas listed as a 39.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Texas has looked good in their games this season with their 2-1 record overall. They lost their season opener on the road in a tough game to Ohio State, the defending National Champions, but they have bounced back with 2 wins in a row now. They have played against 2 weaker opponents and they haven't really been blowing these teams out, but the defense has looked great as they aren't giving up many points. The offense has looked terrible with Arch Manning struggling a lot, but he is due to bounce back against this bad defense. Texas is also in dire need of a big offensive game before going into the conference schedule so look for them to bring more effort for this game. Meanwhile, Sam Houston State has looked terrible in their games this season with their 0-3 record overall and their 0-1 conference record which has them right at the bottom of the Conference USA. They are off another bad loss in their last one, losing 37-20 to a bad Hawaii team, and their defense has been terrible this season with a ton of points given up. They also have a new head coach this season too so there is a lot of change happening in Sam Houston and they aren't going to be able to compete in this game. Texas needs a big win here to silence the early critics so they are going to make sure to run up the score against this in-state rival. The best way to place a bet here is on Texas to cover the spread in this game. 

Sam Houston State Texas Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, September 20, 2025 (8:00 pm ET start time) is Texas 49 SHSU 3.

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Sam Houston State Bearkats: 1-4 ATS after a loss by 17 or more points. 1-5 ATS after 3 or more consecutive straight up losses. 6-2 UNDER off a road loss. 10-3 UNDER after playing their last game on the road. 

Texas Longhorns: 17-7 ATS against Conference USA opponents. 29-19 ATS on the road after playing a game at home. 20-10 UNDER in all lined games. 5-1 UNDER as a favorite of 31 or more points.

Sam Houston State Bearkats:  L. Locke (QB) Questionable - Undisclosed. H. Watson (QB) Questionable - Undisclosed. Z. Bryan (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Coy (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Gaines-Smith (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Johnson (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. McCaskill (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Shorter (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. Q. Williams (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Wilson (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed.

Texas Longhorns:  C. Baxter (RB) Out - Hamstring. A. January (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. Q. Wisner (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. E. Mosley V (WR) Questionable - Leg. D. Moore Jr. (WR) Questionable - Concussion. C. Page (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. R. Stewart Jr. (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. I. Coleman (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Cojoe (OG) Out - Knee.

“I felt like he pressed some. He knew he missed some throws. I feel like we’ve done enough with him to have a pretty good understanding of who he is as a player and what he’s capable of. I know there’s a lot of football in him that’s high level football.” - Steve Sarkisian after his team’s win against UTEP in their last game. 

“I've got to play better. I'm just frustrated. I know I'm better than this. It's going to be hard to sleep tonight.” - Arch Manning after their win against UTEP in their last game. 

WR Bledsoe III, Darrick

WR Humphreys, Qua'Vez

WR Smith-Mack, Aviyon

TE Smith, Austin

QB Watson, Hunter

RB Green, Elijah

WR Wingo, Ryan

WR Livingstone, Parker

WR Moore Jr., DeAndre

TE Endries, Jack

QB Manning, Arch

RB Wisner, Quintrevion 

Passing: H. Watson (310)

Rushing: H. Watson (108)

Receiving: E. Green (124)

Touchdowns: H. Watson (2)

Passing: A. Manning (579)

Rushing: A. Manning (112)

Receiving: P. Livingstone (198)

Touchdowns: P. Livingstone (3)

Coaches:

Sam Houston State Bearkats: Phil Longo (1st season)

Texas Longhorns: Steve Sarkisian (5th season)