Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots Prediction, Preview and Odds - 09/21/2025

Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, September 21, 2025

Venue:  Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA

Where to Watch:  CBS

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Steelers -1.5, Patriots +1.5; Over/Under:  44.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Steelers -1.5, Patriots +1.5; Over/Under:  44.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Steelers -1.5, Patriots +1.5; Over/Under:  44.5 points

Pittsburgh Steelers:  1-1 (3rd place, AFC North)

New England Patriots:  1-1 (2nd place, AFC East)

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Pittsburgh Steelers:  lost their last game at home against the Seattle Seahawks 31-17.

New England Patriots:  won their last game on the road against the Miami Dolphins 33-27.

The Steelers are entering this game with a 1-1 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 0-1 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against the Seattle Seahawks 31-17. Aaron Rodgers was the starting QB and he completed 18/33 passes for 203 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. Jaylen Warren led the team in rushing yards with 48. Jaylen Warren led the receivers with 86 receiving yards on 4 receptions. Payton Wilson led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Payton Wilson and Jack Sawyer each led the defense in sacks with 1. Jalen Ramsey and Nick Herbig each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

The Patriots are entering this game with a 1-1 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 0-1 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the Miami Dolphins 33-27. Drake Maye was the starting QB and he completed 19/23 passes for 230 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Rhamondre Stevenson led the team in rushing yards with 54. Rhamondre Stevenson led the receivers with 88 receiving yards on 5 receptions. Jaylinn Hawkins led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Milton Williams led the defense in sacks with 2. Marte Mapu came away with the only interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have the Steelers listed as a 1.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Steelers have a 1-1 record overall this season and they are off their first loss of the season now. They lost to the Seahawks 31-17 at home and the offense didn't look nearly as good as it did in week 1, but the Seahawks also have a really good defense and that won't be an issue here. Rodgers will be looking to bounce back after that loss and they still have a really talented defense that looked a lot better last week too. Meanwhile, the Patriots have a 1-1 record overall and they are off their first win of the season. They beat the Dolphins on the road 33-27, but the Dolphins have looked like a disaster this season so that win isn't that impressive. The Patriots are under a lot of change this season with a new head coach and they are heading in the right direction, but they don't have a ton of talent on their roster and still have one of the worst teams in the NFL. As good as they were against the Dolphins, their defense still looked terrible in that one and that is going to help Rodgers and this Steelers offense bounce back with a better game. The Patriots aren't going to be able to do what they did last week against that Dolphins defense either. The Steelers have a lot more talent on their defense and they are going to make this a really long game for Drake Maye and the Patriots offense. The best way to place a bet here is on the Steelers to cover the spread in this game. 

Steelers Patriots Prediction:  Our NFL Pick for Sunday, September 21, 2025 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Steelers 35 Patriots 17.

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Pittsburgh Steelers: 15-9 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3. 33-20 ATS after a loss by 14 or more points. 48-28 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game. 4-0 OVER against AFC East division opponents. 3-0 OVER off an upset loss as a home favorite. 

New England Patriots: 13-21 ATS in all games. 3-8 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3. 2-10 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 8-3 OVER as a home underdog of 7 points or less. 5-1 OVER off an upset win as an underdog.

Pittsburgh Steelers:  P. Queen (LB) Injured - Oblique. D. Slay (CB) Injured - NIR - Rest. J. Porter Jr. (CB) Injured - Hamstring. D. Elliott (S) Injured - Knee. A. Highsmith (LB) Injured - Ankle. M. Scharping (OG) Injured - Knee. T. Watt (LB) Injured - NIR - Rest. D. Harmon (DL) Injured - Knee.

New England Patriots:  K. White (DL) Injured - Illness. C. Barmore (DL) Injured - NIR-Other. K. Chaisson (LB) Injured - Hamstring. C. Davis III (CB) Injured - Achilles. C. Gonzalez (CB) Injured - Hamstring. H. Landry III (LB) Injured - Foot. M. Mapu (LB) Injured - Neck. M. Moses (OT) Injured - Foot. J. Westover (FB) Injured - Hamstring. J. Wilson (C) Injured - Thigh.

“It's week two. It mean like, it's good for us. Last week, probably there was some people feeling pretty good because everybody outside the building was talking about how great we were on offense. That's the league. You can't ride the highs or the lows.” - Aaron Rodgers after their loss against the Seahawks in their last game. 

“There’s a lot of things out there that we have to do better, but we didn’t pout, we didn’t drop our heads. We went on to the next play, and we kept competing and I appreciate that. We’ve got to learn how to compete and believe that we can come down here and win football games, and I think they did.” - Mike Vrabel after his team’s win against the Dolphins in their last game. 

WR Metcalf, DK

WR Austin III, Calvin

TE Smith, Jonnu

TE Freiermuth, Pat 

QB Rodgers, Aaron

RB Warren, Jaylen

WR Boutte, Kayshon

WR Hollins, Mack

WR Diggs, Stefon

TE Henry, Hunter

QB Maye, Drake

RB Stevenson, Rhamondre

FB Westover, Jack

Passing: A. Rodgers (447)

Rushing: J. Warren (85)

Receiving: J. Warren (108)

Touchdowns: J. Smith (1)

Passing: D. Maye (517)

Rushing: R. Stevenson (69)

Receiving: K. Boutte (119)

Touchdowns: D. Douglas (1)

Coaches:

Pittsburgh Steelers: Mike Tomlin (19th season)

New England Patriots: Mike Vrabel (1st season)