Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/04/2026

Game Time: 11:05 am ET, Saturday, July 4, 2026

Venue:  Nationals Park, Washington, DC

Where to Watch:  MLB TV

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Pirates -156, Nationals +129; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Pirates -155, Nationals +130; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Pirates -155, Nationals +125; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

Pittsburgh Pirates:  44-44 (4th place, NL Central)

Washington Nationals:  45-43 (4th place, NL East)

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Pittsburgh Pirates:  5-5 last 10

Washington Nationals:  5-5 last 10

The Pirates are entering this series off a win and split their 4-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies 2-2 in their last series. They enter this game with a 44-44 record overall and have a road record of 21-22. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Nationals on Saturday with the series opener still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 2nd in the MLB with a .759 OPS. Mitch Keller is their starting pitcher on Friday while Braxton Ashcraft is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 8-3 with a 3.33 ERA this season. His team won their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 5 ER, 3 HR, and 1 BB with 8 SO on 5 hits through 6 IP against the Philadelphia Phillies.

The Nationals are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the Boston Red Sox 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 45-43 record overall and have a home record of 17-25. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Pirates on Saturday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 4th in the MLB with a .747 OPS. Foster Griffin is their starting pitcher on Friday while Zack Littell is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 7-6 with a 5.29 ERA this season. His team lost 3 of their last 4 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 earned runs, 1 homer, and 2 walks with 3 strikeouts on 3 hits through 5 innings pitched against the Baltimore Orioles.

The current betting odds have the Pirates listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Nationals have looked good in their games this season with their 45-43 record overall, but that record has them right near the bottom of the NL East. They haven't looked good in their own ballpark though with their 17-25 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Pirates have looked good in their games this season with their 44-44 record overall, but that record has them right near the bottom of the NL Central. They haven't been a great road team either with their 21-22 road record this year. The Pirates are 5-5 in their last 10 games and haven't looked great lately, but the Nationals are also 5-5 in their last 10 games and haven't looked any better. These teams have 2 of the best offenses in MLB too, but the Pirates are going to have a much better pitching matchup here and they can take advantage of that. Ashcraft is on the mound for the Pirates in this one and he has looked great this season. He is 8-3 with a 3.33 ERA and he has been one of their best starters by far. He is coming off a bad start in which he did give up 5 earned runs, but that hasn't been a common theme for him this season and the team has still had a ton of success with him lately, winning 3 games in a row now with him starting. The Nationals are going with Littell in this one and he hasn't looked great this season. He is 7-6 with a 5.29 ERA and he has been giving up quite a few runs all year. He only gave up 2 earned runs in his last start, but that hasn't been a common theme for him and the team has had a lot of trouble with him lately too, losing 3 of their last 4 games with him starting. Neither team has had a great bullpen this season either, so look for the Pirates to take advantage of having the better starter in this one. The best way to place a bet here is on the Pirates to win this game. 

Pirates Nationals Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Saturday, July 4, 2026 (11:05 am ET start time) is Pirates 7 Nationals 2.

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Pittsburgh Pirates: 192-220 (-21 units) on the moneyline in all games. 85-119 (-18 units) on the moneyline in road games. 148-160 (-5.2 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 24-12 OVER when playing against a team with a winning record.

Washington Nationals: 37-46 (+5 units) on the moneyline against NL Central opponents. 182-231 (+9.5 units) on the moneyline in all games. 14-10 (+9.1 units) on the moneyline when the total is 10 to 10.5. 48-33 OVER against NL Central opponents.

Pittsburgh Pirates:  S. Horwitz (1B) Ten Day IL - Hamstring. W. Dotel (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Lat. O. Cruz (CF) Ten Day IL - Hand. C. Devenski (RP) Sixty Day IL - Illness.

Washington Nationals:  M. Parker (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. R. Lovelady (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Triceps. M. Kranick (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Irvin (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. K. Waldichuk (SP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. J. Gray (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. D. Herz (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. T. Williams (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“I think we're gonna start to see a different Marcell Ozuna.” - Don Kelly after his team’s win against the Phillies in their game on Thursday. 

“To see guys in the bottom of the order or guys that aren’t starting every single night come through for us and step up, that’s what it takes to be a winning ball club and have success in this league. You need all one through 13 to be able to contribute. Hats off to our guys for doing so.” - Blake Butera after his team’s win against the Red Sox in their game on Wednesday.

Jake Mangum (S) CF

Brandon Lowe (L) 2B

Bryan Reynolds (S) LF

Esmerlyn Valdez (R) RF

Ryan O'Hearn (L) 1B

Nick Gonzales (R) 3B

Marcell Ozuna (R) DH

Endy Rodríguez (S) C

Jared Triolo (R) SS

James Wood (L) LF

Curtis Mead (R) 3B

Andrés Chaparro (R) 1B

Dylan Crews (R) RF

Daylen Lile (L) DH

Jacob Young (R) CF

Jorbit Vivas (L) 2B

Nasim Nuñez (S) SS

Drew Millas (S) C

Batting Average:  Rafael Flores (.667)

Hits:  Nick Gonzales (93)

Home Runs:  Brandon Lowe (20)

RBI:  Brandon Lowe (57)

Stolen Bases:  Oneil Cruz (21)

Wins:  Braxton Ashcraft (8)

Saves:  Gregory Soto (11)

ERA:  Evan Sisk (2.23)

Batting Average:  Joey Wiemer (.286)

Hits:  James Wood (90)

Home Runs:  James Wood (22)

RBI:  CJ Abrams (60)

Stolen Bases:  Nasim Nuñez (32)

Wins:  Foster Griffin (8)

Saves:  Gus Varland (6)

ERA:  Justin Lawrence (0.00)

Managers:

Pittsburgh Pirates: Don Kelly (2nd season)

Washington Nationals: Blake Butera (1st season)