Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins Prediction, Preview and Odds - 08/12/2026

Game Time: 6:40 pm ET, Wednesday, August 12, 2026

Venue:  LoanDepot Park, Miami, FL

Where to Watch:  MLB TV

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Pirates +100, Marlins -120; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Pirates +100, Marlins -120; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Pirates +100, Marlins -120; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Pittsburgh Pirates:  58-62 (4th place, NL Central)

Miami Marlins:  60-59 (3rd place, NL East)

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Pittsburgh Pirates:  3-7 last 10

Miami Marlins:  5-5 last 10

The Pirates are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the New York Mets 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 58-62 record overall and have a road record of 28-32. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Marlins on Wednesday with the series opener still to be played on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 4th in the MLB with a .746 OPS. Paul Skenes is their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Carmen Mlodzinski is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 6-4 with a 3.51 ERA this season. His team lost 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 5 ER, 1 HR, and 1 BB with 1 SO on 7 hits through 3 IP against the New York Mets.

The Marlins are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the Los Angeles Angels 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 60-59 record overall and have a home record of 36-24. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Pirates on Wednesday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 10th in the MLB with a .731 OPS. Eury Pérez is their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Janson Junk is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 5-7 with a 4.63 ERA this season. His team lost 3 of their last 4 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 earned runs, 1 homer, and 1 walk with 1 strikeout on 5 hits through 3 innings pitched against the Atlanta Braves.

The current betting odds have the Pirates listed as a slight underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Marlins have looked good in their games this season with their 60-59 record overall which has them right in the middle of the NL East. They have looked great in their own ballpark too with their 36-24 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Pirates haven't looked great in their games this season with their 58-62 record overall which has them right near the bottom of the NL Central. They haven't been a great road team either with their 28-32 road record this year. The Pirates are 3-7 in their last 10 games and haven't looked great lately while the Marlins are 5-5 in their last 10 games and have looked like a different team at home this year. The Pirates haven't had a great bullpen this season either, but lately their pitching has been a lot better and they still have one of the best offenses in MLB. That offense is going to be key in this game since the Marlins have been really up and down with their offense this season, and their pitching hasn't looked any better either. The Marlins are going with Junk in this one and he hasn't looked great this season. He is 11-5 with a 4.08 ERA and he has been giving up quite a few runs. The team has been having success with him lately, winning 2 of their last 3 games with him starting, but he did give up 4 earned runs in his last start and that has been a common theme for him. The Pirates have definitely been in a slump lately, but they are still in the NL Wild Card race and this is a big series for them to gain some ground. Look for the Pirates to bounce back desperately in this series with their top 5 offense leading the way. The best way to place a bet here is on the Pirates to win this game. 

Pirates Marlins Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Wednesday, August 12, 2026 (6:40 pm ET start time) is Pirates 8 Marlins 5.

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Pittsburgh Pirates: 206-238 (-25.1 units) on the moneyline in all games. 92-129 (-19.9 units) on the moneyline in road games. 125-169 (-30.5 units) on the moneyline vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better. 79-54 UNDER on the road vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better.

Miami Marlins: 201-242 (+14.7 units) on the moneyline in all games. 157-154 (+48.1 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 56-53 (+7.9 units) on the moneyline vs. NL teams allowing 4.5 or more runs/game on the season. 22-11 UNDER vs. NL teams allowing 4.5 or more runs/game on the season.

Pittsburgh Pirates:  E. Rodriguez (C) Day To Day - Hip. M. Keller (SP) Sixty Day IL - Arm. R. O'Hearn (RF) Ten Day IL - Quad. O. Cruz (CF) Sixty Day IL - Hand. K. Griffin (SS) Sixty Day IL - Finger.

Miami Marlins:  K. Stowers (1B) Day To Day - Hamstring. M. Meyer (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Neck. W. Kempner (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. A. Bender (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shin. A. Nardi (RP) Sixty Day IL - Ribs. R. Snelling (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. Mazur (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. R. Henriquez (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“Anytime you're playing 17 in 17 is tough, and we've got to find a way to bounce back. Got the off-day tomorrow and have a big series coming up in Miami.” - Don Kelly after his team’s loss against the Mets in their game on Sunday. 

“No real update. We’ll send him for some further examination to try to get a better handle on the potential severity of that. But anytime you have to leave the game [limping] on your own power like that, not great. I think we’ll hold out a little bit and see what more information we can get.” - Clayton McCullough on Kyle Stowers after his team’s win against the LA Angels in their game on Sunday. 

Jake Mangum (S) CF

Ronny Simon (S) RF

Bryan Reynolds (S) DH

Nick Gonzales (R) 3B

Esmerlyn Valdez (R) LF

Brandon Lowe (L) 2B

Rafael Flores Jr. (R) 1B

Jared Triolo (R) SS

Henry Davis (R) C

Kyle Stowers (L) 1B

Xavier Edwards (S) 2B

Otto Lopez (R) SS

Griffin Conine (L) DH

Heriberto Hernández (R) LF

Owen Caissie (L) RF

Agustín Ramírez (R) C

Jakob Marsee (L) CF

Javier Sanoja (R) 3B

Batting Average:  Nick Gonzales (.306)

Hits:  Nick Gonzales (133)

Home Runs:  Brandon Lowe (25)

RBI:  Brandon Lowe (74)

Stolen Bases:  Oneil Cruz (21)

Wins:  Braxton Ashcraft (11)

Saves:  Gregory Soto (14)

ERA:  Khristian Curtis (0.00)

Batting Average:  Otto Lopez (.318)

Hits:  Otto Lopez (147)

Home Runs:  Heriberto Hernandez (16)

RBI:  Liam Hicks (62)

Stolen Bases:  Esteury Ruiz (27)

Wins:  Sandy Alcantara (13)

Saves:  Pete Fairbanks (17)

ERA:  Josh Ekness (2.00)

Managers:

Pittsburgh Pirates: Don Kelly (2nd season)

Miami Marlins: Clayton McCullough (2nd season)