Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/17/2026

Game Time: 7:10 pm ET, Friday, July 17, 2026

Venue:  Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH

Where to Watch:  MLB TV

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Pirates +105, Guardians -127; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Pirates +105, Guardians -125; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Pirates +105, Guardians -130; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Pittsburgh Pirates:  50-47 (4th place, NL Central)

Cleveland Guardians:  51-46 (2nd place, AL Central)

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Pittsburgh Pirates:  7-3 last 10

Cleveland Guardians:  6-4 last 10

The Pirates are entering this series off a win and completed the sweep in their 3-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 50-47 record overall and have a road record of 23-23. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Guardians on Friday. Their offense ranks 2nd in the MLB with a .768 OPS. Paul Skenes was their starting pitcher on Sunday while Jared Jones is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 1-1 with a 4.37 ERA this season. His team lost 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 0 ER, 0 HR, and 0 BB with 8 SO on 0 hits through 6 IP against the Atlanta Braves.

The Guardians are entering this series off a win and completed the sweep in their 3-game series against the Miami Marlins 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 51-46 record overall and have a home record of 24-22. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Pirates on Friday. Their offense ranks 29th in the MLB with a .679 OPS. Joey Cantillo was their starting pitcher on Sunday while Gavin Williams is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 10-4 with a 3.81 ERA this season. His team won their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 earned runs, 1 homer, and 1 walk with 11 strikeouts on 3 hits through 7 innings pitched against the Minnesota Twins.

The current betting odds have the Guardians listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Guardians have looked good in their games this season with their 51-46 record overall which has them right near the top of the AL Central. They have looked good in their own ballpark too with their 24-22 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Pirates have looked good in their games this season with their 50-47 record overall, but that record has them right near the bottom of the NL Central. They haven't been a great road team either with their 23-23 road record this year. The Pirates have been rolling lately as they are 7-3 in their last 10 games and have one of the best offenses in MLB, but their pitching has had a lot of issues. The Guardians don't have a great offense themselves, but they do have a great pitching staff and have looked a lot better lately, now 6-4 in their last 10 games. Williams is on the mound for the Guardians in this one and he has looked good this season. He is 10-4 with a 3.81 ERA and he leads the starters in wins this season. He is coming off another great start in which he only gave up 2 earned runs, something that has been a common theme for him, and the team has won 3 games in a row now with him starting. The Pirates are going with Jones in this one and he hasn't looked great this season. He is 1-1 with a 4.37 ERA and the team hasn't had a ton of success with him lately. They have lost 2 of their last 3 games with him starting and even though he gave up no runs in his last start, that hasn't been a common theme for him this year. The Pirates had a lot of momentum behind them, but the All-Star break could be a killer for them offensively and the Guardians were also getting hot before the break, having the much better pitching staff to lean on here too. The best way to place a bet here is on the Guardians to win this game. 

Pirates Guardians Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Friday, July 17, 2026 (7:10 pm ET start time) is Guardians 4 Pirates 1.

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Pittsburgh Pirates: 198-223 (-17.6 units) on the moneyline in all games. 87-120 (-16.7 units) on the moneyline in road games. 54-63 (-7.5 units) on the moneyline in an inter-league game. 47-19 UNDER on the road when the total is 7 to 7.5. 10-5 UNDER after a win by 8 runs or more.

Cleveland Guardians: 236-197 (+35.9 units) on the moneyline in all games. 123-92 (+10.8 units) on the moneyline in home games. 135-82 (+23 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 27-18 UNDER against NL Central opponents. 31-12 UNDER vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better.

Pittsburgh Pirates:  K. Griffin (SS) Sixty Day IL - Finger. E. Rodriguez (C) Ten Day IL - Lower Body. E. Sisk (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. S. Horwitz (1B) Ten Day IL - Hamstring. W. Dotel (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Lat. O. Cruz (CF) Ten Day IL - Hand. C. Devenski (RP) Sixty Day IL - Illness.

Cleveland Guardians:  T. Herrin (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. A. Martinez (LF) Ten Day IL - Foot. J. Ramirez (3B) Ten Day IL - Hand.

“I think it showed everybody in here that this is a legit team on both sides of the ball, and it shows that we can do it and play our best game.” - Brandon Lowe after their win against the Brewers in their game on Sunday. 

“The All-Star break doesn’t kill your momentum unless you allow it to. Really proud of our guys and how they finished this road trip off. Really, the last month, with all the ups and downs we have gone through, it was fun to finish it this way.” - Stephen Vogt after his team’s win against the Marlins in their game on Sunday. 

Jake Mangum (A) CF

Brandon Lowe (Z) 2B

Bryan Reynolds (A) LF

Esmerlyn Valdez (D) RF

Ryan O'Hearn (Z) 1B

Nick Gonzales (D) 3B

Marcell Ozuna (D) DH

Jared Triolo (D) SS

Henry Davis (D) C

Travis Bazzana (Z) 2B

Brayan Rocchio (A) SS

Chase DeLauter (Z) DH

Kyle Manzardo (Z) 1B

Kahlil Watson (Z) RF

Gabriel Arias (D) 3B

Petey Halpin (Z) CF

Patrick Bailey (A) C

Steven Kwan (Z) LF

Batting Average:  Rafael Flores (.400)

Hits:  Nick Gonzales (104)

Home Runs:  Brandon Lowe (21)

RBI:  Brandon Lowe (64)

Stolen Bases:  Oneil Cruz (21)

Wins:  Braxton Ashcraft (9)

Saves:  Gregory Soto (12)

ERA:  Brandon Eisert (0.00)

Batting Average:  Austin Hedges (.289)

Hits:  Brayan Rocchio (88)

Home Runs:  Angel Martínez (11)

RBI:  Chase DeLauter (46)

Stolen Bases:  José Ramírez (24)

Wins:  Gavin Williams (10)

Saves:  Cade Smith (28)

ERA:  Logan Allen (0.00)

Managers:

Pittsburgh Pirates: Don Kelly (2nd season)

Cleveland Guardians: Stephen Vogt (3rd season)