by Rod Pearson
Monday, Oct 06, 2025
Game Time: 12:00 pm ET, Saturday, October 11, 2025
Venue: Doak S. Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL
Where to Watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Pitt +10.5, FSU -10.5; Over/Under: 58.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Pitt +11, FSU -11; Over/Under: 58 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Pitt +10, FSU -10; Over/Under: 58.5 points
Season Record
Pittsburgh Panthers: 3-2 (1-1) (8th place, ACC)
Florida State Seminoles: 3-2 (0-2) (15th place, ACC)
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Pittsburgh Panthers: won their last game at home against the Boston College Eagles 48-7.
Florida State Seminoles: lost their last game at home against the Miami Hurricanes 28-22.
Pittsburgh Panthers vs Florida State Seminoles Preview and Analysis
Pittsburgh is entering this game with a 3-2 record overall and they have a 1-1 record in their conference games too. They are 3-1 in their home games, 0-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against Boston College 48-7. Mason Heintschel was the starting QB and he completed 30/41 passes for 323 passing yards, 4 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Ja'Kyrian Turner led the team in rushing yards with 67 and 1 TD. Kenny Johnson led the receivers with 115 receiving yards on 9 receptions and 1 TD. Kyle Louis led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Jahsear Whittington and Rasheem Biles each led the defense in sacks with 1. Shadarian Harrison came away with the only interception for them in that one.
Florida State is entering this game with a 3-2 record overall and they have a 0-2 record in their conference games too. They are 3-1 in their home games, 0-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against Miami-Florida 28-22. Thomas Castellanos was the starting QB and he completed 25/45 passes for 272 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Thomas Castellanos led the team in rushing yards with 57. Duce Robinson led the receivers with 87 receiving yards on 6 receptions. Blake Nichelson led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Blake Nichelson led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Pittsburgh vs Florida State Prediction
The current betting odds have Pittsburgh listed as a 10.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Pittsburgh has looked good in their games this season with their 3-2 record overall, but their 1-1 conference record has them lower in the ACC. They are off their first win of the season in the ACC, obliterating Boston College 48-7, and their offense looked a lot better in that one. They lost their only road game this season, but Pittsburgh did find something with their backup QB in that game and their defense has been making plays all season too. Meanwhile, Florida State has looked good in their games this season with their 3-2 record overall, but their 0-2 conference record has them right near the bottom of the ACC. They are off a tough 28-22 loss to Miami in their last one and they have lost 2 games in a row now. They made their game with Miami really close in the end, but Miami was always in control of that one and even jumped out to a big lead. Florida State is going to be looking to bounce back after 2 tough losses in a row, but their defense has still been a big issue all season and that isn't going to go away against this Pitt offense. This is a lot of points for a Florida State team that has lost some confidence after losing 2 in a row, and this is a Pittsburgh team that has to be feeling good about themselves after their big win over BC and almost beating Louisville the week before. The best way to place a bet here is on Pittsburgh to cover the spread in this game.
Pittsburgh Florida State Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 11, 2025 (12:00 pm ET start time) is Florida State 30 Pittsburgh 27.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Pittsburgh Panthers: 16-10 ATS as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points. 13-5 ATS in a road game where the total is between 56.5 and 63. 4-1 UNDER after a 2 game home stand. 13-6 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 56.5 and 63. 13-4 UNDER against teams with a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse.
Florida State Seminoles: 1-7 ATS off a loss against a conference rival. 1-5 ATS after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses. 13-6 UNDER against conference opponents. 7-1 UNDER off a loss against a conference rival. 10-5 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record.
Key Injuries
Pittsburgh Panthers: J. Moore (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Brown (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Howanitz (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Cook (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. R. Murray (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Reid (RB) Questionable - Lower Body. S. Smith (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. B. Spires (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Brown (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. N. Upadhyayula (LS) Questionable - Undisclosed. Z. Crothers (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Gouveia (OG) Out - Leg. T. Lynum (CB) Questionable - Lower Body. J. Marcelin (LB) Out - Undisclosed. J. Bonsu (LB) Out - Undisclosed. D. Davis Jr. (RB) Out - Knee.
Florida State Seminoles: C. Loftin (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. LaVallee (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Diggs (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Davis (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. G. Blackwell (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Barker (CB) Questionable - Shoulder. E. Pritchard (LB) Out - Undisclosed.
Notable Quotes
“It was not my intention to mislead you. I wanted to eliminate distractions during the week. We needed to focus on what we needed to do and I think we accomplished that.” - Pat Narduzzi after his team’s win against BC in their last game.
“To come up short in this one is utterly disappointing in every way. Our guys battled. We just had too many mistakes.” - Mike Norvell after his team’s loss against Miami-FL in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Pittsburgh Panthers
WR Johnson, Kenny
WR Hicks, Cataurus
WR Williams Jr., Raphael
TE Overman, Jake
QB Holstein, Eli
RB Reid, Desmond
Florida State Seminoles
WR Robinson, Duce
WR Boggs, Jayvan
WR White, Squirrel
TE Pittman Jr., Randy
QB Castellanos, Tommy
RB Sawchuk, Gavin
Statistical Leaders
Pittsburgh Panthers
Passing: Eli Holstein (1,058)
Rushing: Juelz Goff (175)
Receiving: Raphael Williams Jr. (320)
Touchdowns: Raphael Williams Jr. (4)
Florida State Seminoles
Passing: Tommy Castellanos (1,120)
Rushing: Gavin Sawchuk (281)
Receiving: Duce Robinson (433)
Touchdowns: Gavin Sawchuk (7)
Coaches:
Pittsburgh Panthers: Pat Narduzzi (11th season)
Florida State Seminoles: Mike Norvell (6th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
