Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/29/2026

Game Time: 12:10 pm ET, Wednesday, July 29, 2026

Venue:  LoanDepot Park, Miami, FL 

Where to Watch:  MLB TV

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies -156, Marlins +129; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies -155, Marlins +130; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies -155, Marlins +130; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Philadelphia Phillies:  57-50 (2nd place, NL East)

Miami Marlins:  53-54 (4th place, NL East)

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Philadelphia Phillies:  3-7 last 10

Miami Marlins:  1-9 last 10

The Phillies are entering this series off a win and lost their 3-game series against the New York Yankees 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 57-50 record overall and have a road record of 29-23. This is the series finale of a 3-game series with the Marlins on Wednesday with the 2nd game still to be played on Tuesday. The Phillies lost the series opener on Monday. Their offense ranks 20th in the MLB with a .706 OPS. Aaron Nola is their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Jesús Luzardo is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 9-5 with a 3.31 ERA this season. His team won 10 of their last 11 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 1 ER, 1 HR, and 1 BB with 9 SO on 3 hits through 7 IP against the New York Yankees.

The Marlins are entering this series off a loss and got swept in their 3-game series against the San Diego Padres 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 53-54 record overall and have a home record of 32-23. This is the 3rd game of a 3-game series with the Phillies on Wednesday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Tuesday. The Marlins won the 1st game of this series on Monday. Their offense ranks 8th in the MLB with a .733 OPS. Sandy Alcantara is their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Ryan Gusto is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA this season. His team lost their last 5 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 earned run, 0 homers, and 1 walk with 4 strikeouts on 2 hits through 3.1 innings pitched against the San Diego Padres.

The current betting odds have the Phillies listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Marlins haven't looked great in their games this season with their 53-54 record overall which has them right near the bottom of the NL East. They have looked a lot better in their own ballpark though with their 32-23 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Phillies have looked good in their games this season with their 57-50 record overall which has them right near the top of the NL East. They have been a good road team too with their 29-23 road record this year. The Phillies are 3-7 in their last 10 games and they haven't looked good lately, but the Marlins have still looked a lot worse, now 1-9 in their last 10 games. The Phillies are going with Luzardo in this one and he has looked great this season. He is 9-5 with a 3.31 ERA and the team has been having a ton of success with him lately. They have won 10 of their last 11 games with him starting and he is coming off another great start in which he gave up 1 earned run, something that has been a common theme for him. The Marlins have been in a big slump lately with their offense really cooling off a lot and they will likely be going with a bullpen game here due to some injuries. They haven't had a strong bullpen all season either, so the Phillies have a big edge with their starter and will be able to take advantage of this pitching matchup. The best way to place a bet here is on the Phillies to win this game. 

Phillies Marlins Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Wednesday, July 29, 2026 (12:10 pm ET start time) is Phillies 4 Marlins 1.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 251-189 (+6.3 units) on the moneyline in all games. 175-115 (+26.5 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 123-69 (+18.4 units) on the moneyline when playing against a team with a losing record. 31-19 UNDER in road games.

Miami Marlins: 100-117 (-9.6 units) on the moneyline in home games. 42-87 (-35.1 units) on the moneyline against left-handed starters. 25-36 (-7.5 units) on the moneyline vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better. 9-5 UNDER at home against left-handed starters.

Philadelphia Phillies:  T. Banks (RP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. R. Marchan (C) Ten Day IL - Knee. B. Keller (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. G. Stubbs (C) Ten Day IL - Wrist. L. Trivino III (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Back. J. Rojas (CF) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. Garcia (RF) Sixty Day IL - Lat.

Miami Marlins:  M. Meyer (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Neck. W. Kempner (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. O. Caissie (RF) Ten Day IL - Calf. A. Bender (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shin. J. Ekness (RP) Sixty Day IL - Calf. A. Nardi (RP) Sixty Day IL - Ribs. R. Snelling (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. Mazur (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. R. Henriquez (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“He said he felt physically fine. He said the ball wasn't coming out.” - Don Mattingly on Zack Wheeler after his team’s loss against the Marlins in their game on Monday. 

“That's what really good teams do. You can't just lean on a couple of individuals. Certainly, we have guys that are very capable of taking over a series, taking over a stretch of games, but ultimately, you're going to need contributions from everywhere on the roster and on both sides of the ball. When we've seen us at our best, that's what we do. So again, it showed up tonight.” - Clayton McCullough after his team’s win against the Phillies in their game on Monday. 

Trea Turner (R) SS

Kyle Schwarber (L) DH

Bryce Harper (L) 1B

Brandon Marsh (L) LF

Alec Bohm (R) 3B

Bryson Stott (L) 2B

J.T. Realmuto (R) C

Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L) RF

Justin Crawford (L) CF

Otto Lopez (R) SS

Kyle Stowers (L) 1B

Heriberto Hernández (R) LF

Xavier Edwards (S) 2B

Liam Hicks (L) DH

Griffin Conine (L) RF

Javier Sanoja (R) 3B

Joe Mack (L) C

Jakob Marsee (L) CF

Batting Average:  Bryan De La Cruz (.750)

Hits:  Brandon Marsh (106)

Home Runs:  Kyle Schwarber (33)

RBI:  Bryce Harper (63)

Stolen Bases:  Trea Turner (17)

Wins:  Cristopher Sánchez (13)

Saves:  Jhoan Duran (24)

ERA:  Bryse Wilson (0.00)

Batting Average:  Otto Lopez (.331)

Hits:  Otto Lopez (136)

Home Runs:  Heriberto Hernandez (15)

RBI:  Liam Hicks (60)

Stolen Bases:  Esteury Ruiz (24)

Wins:  Sandy Alcantara (10)

Saves:  Pete Fairbanks (13)

ERA:  Josh Ekness (1.69)

Managers:

Philadelphia Phillies: Don Mattingly (Interim)

Miami Marlins: Clayton McCullough (2nd season)