Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/09/2026

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Thursday, July 9, 2026

Venue:  Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies -168, Reds +139; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies -170, Reds +140; Over/Under:  9 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies -165, Reds +140; Over/Under:  9 runs

Philadelphia Phillies:  51-41 (2nd place, NL East)

Cincinnati Reds:  41-49 (5th place, NL Central)

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Philadelphia Phillies:  5-5 last 10

Cincinnati Reds:  3-7 last 10

The Phillies are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Kansas City Royals 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 51-41 record overall and have a road record of 26-20. This is the series finale of a 3-game series with the Reds on Thursday with the 2nd game still to be played on Wednesday. The Phillies won the series opener on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 21st in the MLB with a .707 OPS. Brad Keller is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Jesús Luzardo is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 7-4 with a 3.75 ERA this season. His team won their last 8 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 1 ER, 0 HR, and 0 BB with 9 SO on 4 hits through 6 IP against the Kansas City Royals.

The Reds are entering this series off a win and lost their 3-game series against the Baltimore Orioles 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 41-49 record overall and have a home record of 20-25. This is the 3rd game of a 3-game series with the Phillies on Thursday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Wednesday. The Reds lost the 1st game of this series on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 24th in the MLB with a .694 OPS. Chase Burns is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Brady Singer is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 3-8 with a 5.03 ERA this season. His team lost their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 earned runs, 1 homer, and 5 walks with 6 strikeouts on 3 hits through 5 innings pitched against the Baltimore Orioles.

The current betting odds have the Phillies listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Phillies have looked good in their games this season with their 51-41 record overall which has them right near the top of the NL East. They have been a good road team too with their 26-20 road record this year. Meanwhile, the Reds haven't looked good in their games this season with their 41-49 record overall which has them right at the bottom of the NL Central. They haven't looked great in their own ballpark either with their 20-25 home record this season. The Phillies are 5-5 in their last 10 games and haven't looked great lately, but they have looked a lot better than the Reds who are 3-7 in their last 10 games and have been in a slump. Their offense hasn't been great this season either while the Phillies offense has been putting up some runs lately, and the Phillies are also going to have the much better pitching matchup here. The Phillies are going with Luzardo in this one and he has looked good this season. He is 7-4 with a 3.75 ERA and his team has been having a ton of success with him lately. He is coming off another great start in which he gave up 1 earned run, something that has been a common theme for him lately, and the team has also won 8 games in a row now with him starting. The Reds are going with Singer in this one and he has looked terrible this season. He is 3-8 with a 5.03 ERA and the team hasn't had much success with him. He only gave up 2 earned runs in his last start, but that hasn't been a common theme for him this year and the team has still lost 3 games in a row now with him starting. The Phillies have had the better offense as of late, so look for them to take advantage of this pitching matchup against a slumping Reds team. The best way to place a bet here is on the Phillies to win this game. 

Phillies Reds Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Thursday, July 9, 2026 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Phillies 6 Reds 2.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 245-180 (+10.6 units) on the moneyline in all games. 146-103 (+13.1 units) on the moneyline vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse. 119-64 (+20.3 units) on the moneyline when playing against a team with a losing record. 47-29 UNDER against NL Central opponents.

Cincinnati Reds: 200-215 (-10.5 units) on the moneyline in all games. 103-103 (-16.6 units) on the moneyline in home games. 127-147 (-7.7 units) on the moneyline vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better. 57-29 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%).

Philadelphia Phillies:  J. Rojas (CF) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. B. Keller (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. A. Garcia (RF) Sixty Day IL - Lat.

Cincinnati Reds:  D. Myers (CF) Ten Day IL - Shoulder. B. Dunn (CF) Ten Day IL - Elbow. T. Santillan (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Oblique. G. Ashcraft (RP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. K. Hayes (3B) Ten Day IL - Back. B. Williamson (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder.

“I know I feel like there’s some other guys that should have made it, but we’re only going to get so many.” - Don Mattingly on the All-Star Game after his team’s win against the Reds in their game on Tuesday. 

"We have to keep on it. It’s been tough the last month and a half, but at the same time, we are baseball players and have to understand that and turn the page quick and go to the next day, and have a better day.” - Eugenio Suarez after their loss against the Phillies in their game on Tuesday.

Trea Turner (R) SS

Kyle Schwarber (L) DH

Bryce Harper (L) 1B

Alec Bohm (R) 3B

Edmundo Sosa (R) LF

J.T. Realmuto (R) C

Bryson Stott (L) 2B

Derek Hill (R) RF

Justin Crawford (L) CF

Elly De La Cruz (S) SS

Sal Stewart (R) 1B

JJ Bleday (L) LF

Eugenio Suárez (R) 3B

Nathaniel Lowe (L) DH

Spencer Steer (R) RF

Tyler Stephenson (R) C

TJ Friedl (L) CF

Matt McLain (R) 2B

Batting Average:  Derek Hill (.325)

Hits:  Brandon Marsh (98)

Home Runs:  Kyle Schwarber (31)

RBI:  Bryce Harper (57)

Stolen Bases:  Trea Turner (16)

Wins:  Cristopher Sánchez (10)

Saves:  Jhoan Duran (22)

ERA:  Bryse Wilson (0.00)

Batting Average:  Blake Dunn (.282)

Hits:  Sal Stewart (87)

Home Runs:  Sal Stewart (17)

RBI:  Sal Stewart (61)

Stolen Bases:  Elly De La Cruz (13)

Wins:  Chase Burns (10)

Saves:  Emilio Pagán (7)

ERA:  Julian Garcia (1.93)

Managers:

Philadelphia Phillies: Don Mattingly (Interim)

Cincinnati Reds: Terry Francona (2nd season)