Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/31/2026

 

Game Time: 7:05 pm ET, Friday, July 31, 2026

Venue:  Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD

Where to Watch:  MLB TV

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies +100, Orioles -120; Over/Under:  9 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies +100, Orioles -120; Over/Under:  9 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies +100, Orioles -120; Over/Under:  9 runs

Philadelphia Phillies:  57-52 (2nd place, NL East)

Baltimore Orioles:  53-56 (4th place, AL East)

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Philadelphia Phillies:  2-8 last 10

Baltimore Orioles:  5-5 last 10

The Phillies are entering this series off a loss and got swept in their 3-game series against the Miami Marlins 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 57-52 record overall and have a road record of 29-25. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Orioles on Friday and they have Thursday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 22nd in the MLB with a .703 OPS. Jesús Luzardo was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Brad Keller is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 2-1 with a 4.02 ERA this season. His team won 10 of their last 11 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 0 ER, 0 HR, and 1 BB with 1 SO on 0 hits through 1 IP against the Cincinnati Reds.

The Orioles are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the Detroit Tigers 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 53-56 record overall and have a home record of 29-27. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Phillies on Friday and they have Thursday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 18th in the MLB with a .715 OPS. Trevor Rogers was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Brandon Young is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 8-2 with a 3.13 ERA this season. His team won their last 4 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 earned run, 1 homer, and 2 walks with 6 strikeouts on 4 hits through 6.1 innings pitched against the Atlanta Braves.

The current betting odds have the Orioles listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Orioles haven't looked great in their games this season with their 53-56 record overall which has them right near the bottom of the AL East. They have looked a lot better in their own ballpark though with their 29-27 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Phillies have looked good in their games this season with their 57-52 record overall which has them right near the top of the NL East. They have been a good road team too with their 29-25 road record this year. The Orioles haven't looked great lately as they are 5-5 in their last 10 games, but they have looked a lot better than the Phillies who are 2-8 in their last 10 games and just got swept by the Marlins in their last series. Their pitching hasn't been that great lately and they are in a bad situation here since they don't really have a solid starter for this game. It could be a bullpen game for the Phillies and their bullpen hasn't looked great lately, so the Orioles can definitely take advantage of this pitching matchup with one of their best starters. Young is on the mound for the Orioles in this one and he has looked great this season. He is 8-2 with a 3.13 ERA and the team has been having a ton of success with him lately. They have won 4 games in a row now with him starting and he is coming off another great start giving up just 1 earned run which has been a common theme for him. The Orioles are going to have a big edge with their pitching in this one and they also have some momentum on their side here, coming off a series win while the Phillies have been slumping. The best way to place a bet here is on the Orioles to win this game. 

Phillies Orioles Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Friday, July 31, 2026 (7:05 pm ET start time) is Orioles 6 Phillies 2.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 26-17 (+6 units) on the moneyline against AL East opponents. 175-117 (+23.9 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 123-70 (+17.4 units) on the moneyline when playing against a team with a losing record. 32-20 UNDER in road games. 

Baltimore Orioles: 21-25 (-8.8 units) on the moneyline against NL East opponents. 219-216 (-20.8 units) on the moneyline in all games. 112-107 (-27 units) on the moneyline in home games. 7-2 UNDER after a one run win.

Philadelphia Phillies:  K. Schwarber (DH) Day To Day - Illness. T. Banks (RP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. R. Marchan (C) Ten Day IL - Knee. B. Keller (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. L. Trivino III (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Back. J. Rojas (CF) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. Garcia (RF) Sixty Day IL - Lat.

Baltimore Orioles:  S. Basallo (C) Ten Day IL - Shoulder. A. Rutschman (C) Ten Day IL - Wrist. B. Alexander (3B) Ten Day IL - Hand. K. Akin (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. R. Helsley (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. C. Bassitt (SP) Sixty Day IL - Back. R. Mountcastle (1B) Sixty Day IL - Foot. Z. Eflin (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Westburg (3B) Sixty Day IL - UCL. F. Bautista (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. C. Selby (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder.

“Now’s the time that we're going to find out what we're made of. There’s a struggle. We let everybody stay in the race. So, we find out who we are these next couple months. I think we’ll find out who we are at this point. At this point it’s, find out who we are.” - Don Mattingly after his team’s loss against the Marlins in their game on Wednesday. 

"His approach has been outstanding. Sounds very simple, but not chasing out of the strike zone and forcing in the strike zone, and it’s tough to do in this league with the stuff these guys throw. But the big thing with Jackson is he’s taking his hits the other way. He’s using the whole field, and he’s really being a complete hitter. It’s been fun to watch." - Craig Albernaz on Jackson Holliday after his team’s win against the Tigers in their game on Wednesday.

Trea Turner (R) DH

Bryson Stott (L) 2B

Bryce Harper (L) 1B

Alec Bohm (R) 3B

J.T. Realmuto (R) C

Brandon Marsh (L) LF

Bryan De La Cruz (R) RF

Justin Crawford (L) CF

Edmundo Sosa (R) SS

Taylor Ward (R) LF

Pete Alonso (R) 1B

Gunnar Henderson (L) SS

Tyler O'Neill (R) RF

Christian Encarnacion-Strand (R) 3B

Coby Mayo (R) DH

Leody Taveras (S) CF

Jeremiah Jackson (R) 2B

Chadwick Tromp (R) C

Batting Average:  Bryan De La Cruz (.571)

Hits:  Brandon Marsh (107)

Home Runs:  Kyle Schwarber (33)

RBI:  Bryce Harper (64)

Stolen Bases:  Trea Turner (17)

Wins:  Cristopher Sánchez (13)

Saves:  Jhoan Duran (24)

ERA:  Bryse Wilson (0.00)

Batting Average:  Blaze Alexander (.312)

Hits:  Pete Alonso (102)

Home Runs:  Pete Alonso (22)

RBI:  Pete Alonso (67)

Stolen Bases:  Leody Taveras (10)

Wins:  Brandon Young (8)

Saves:  Ryan Helsley (8)

ERA:  Jose Espada (0.00)

Managers:

Philadelphia Phillies: Don Mattingly (Interim)

Baltimore Orioles: Craig Albernaz (1st season)