Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction, Preview and Odds - 09/19/2025

Game Time: 9:40 pm ET, Friday, September 19, 2025

Venue:  Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ 

Where to Watch:  MLBN

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies +104, Diamondbacks -126; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies +105, Diamondbacks -125; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies +105, Diamondbacks -125; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

Philadelphia Phillies:  91-62 (1st place, NL East)

Arizona Diamondbacks:  77-76 (3rd place, NL West)

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Philadelphia Phillies:  8-2 last 10

Arizona Diamondbacks:  5-5 last 10

The Phillies are entering this series off a loss and won their 3-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 91-62 record overall and have a road record of 40-38. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Diamondbacks on Friday and they have Thursday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 4th in the MLB with a .761 OPS. Jesús Luzardo was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Taijuan Walker is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 5-8 with a 4.17 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 4 ER, 2 HR, and 1 BB with 3 SO on 7 hits through 5 IP against the Kansas City Royals.

The Diamondbacks are entering this series off a loss and won their 3-game series against the San Francisco Giants 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 77-76 record overall and have a home record of 40-35. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Phillies on Friday and they have Thursday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 5th in the MLB with a .758 OPS. Brandon Pfaadt was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Ryne Nelson is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 7-3 with a 3.34 ERA this season. His team lost 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 earned runs, 0 homers, and 3 walks with 4 strikeouts on 4 hits through 6 innings pitched against the Minnesota Twins.

The current betting odds have the Diamondbacks listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Diamondbacks have looked good this season with their 77-76 record overall which has them right in the middle of the NL West and in the Wild Card race. They have looked better in their own ballpark this season too with their 40-35 home record. Meanwhile, the Phillies have looked great in their games this season with their 91-62 record overall which has them right at the top of the NL East with one of the best records in the entire MLB. They have been a good road team too with their 40-38 road record this season. The Phillies have also been red hot lately, going 8-2 in their last 10 games while the Diamondbacks are only 5-5, but the Phillies are starting to take their foot off the gas now since they have already clinched the NL East. The Phillies are going with Walker in this one and he hasn't looked great this season. He is 5-8 with a 4.17 ERA and he has been giving up a lot of runs lately. He is coming off a bad start in which he gave up 4 earned runs and that has been a common theme for him this year. The Diamondbacks are going with Nelson in this one and he has looked good this season. He is 7-3 with a 3.34 ERA and hasn't been giving up many runs lately. His team has lost 2 of their last 3 games with him starting, but he is coming off another good start in which he gave up no runs and that has been a common theme for him this year. The Phillies aren't as focused on their games now until the playoffs and the Diamondbacks have the better pitching matchup to take advantage of here. The best way to place a bet here is on the Diamondbacks to win this game. 

Phillies Diamondbacks Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Friday, September 19, 2025 (9:40 pm ET start time) is Diamondbacks 4 Phillies 1.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 63-40 (+12.2 units) on the moneyline against NL West opponents. 286-209 (+14.2 units) on the moneyline in all games. 198-136 (+20.6 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 15-6 UNDER as a road underdog of +100 to +150.

Arizona Diamondbacks: 130-115 (-9.3 units) on the moneyline in home games. 133-104 (-13.9 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 55-68 (-7.3 units) on the moneyline when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%). 26-17 UNDER vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season.

Philadelphia Phillies:  E. Sosa (2B) Ten Day IL - Groin. J. Alvarado (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. A. Bohm (3B) Ten Day IL - Shoulder. T. Turner (SS) Ten Day IL - Hamstring. D. Robert (RP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. Z. Wheeler (SP) Sixty Day IL - Blood Clot. J. Romano (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Finger.

Arizona Diamondbacks:  T. Locklear (1B) Ten Day IL - Elbow. P. Smith (1B) Sixty Day IL - Quadriceps. L. Gurriel Jr. (LF) Ten Day IL - ACL. K. Ginkel (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. T. Henry (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. C. Montes De Oca (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Martinez (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. C. Mena (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. C. Burnes (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. Puk (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. B. Walston (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“If we get there, I would like to have an intrasquad game with some intensity because I think pitchers need to see hitters, the hitters need to see some live [pitching] just to keep their timing.” - Rob Thomson on getting his team ready for the playoffs.

"We unfortunately could capitalize on an unreal start by Brandon Pfaadt. He's never pitched that deep into a baseball game, but didn't let it affect him. He went out there and executed an unbelievable game plan and just got into a great rhythm with [catcher James] McCann." - Torey Lovullo after his team’s loss against the Giants in their game on Wednesday.

Harrison Bader (R) CF

Kyle Schwarber (L) DH

Bryce Harper (L) 1B

J.T. Realmuto (R) C

Nick Castellanos (R) RF

Max Kepler (L) LF

Otto Kemp (R) 3B

Weston Wilson (R) 2B

Bryson Stott (L) SS

Geraldo Perdomo (S) SS

Ketel Marte (S) 2B

Corbin Carroll (L) RF

Gabriel Moreno (R) DH

Blaze Alexander (R) 3B

James McCann (R) C

Alek Thomas (L) CF

Tim Tawa (R) 1B

Jake McCarthy (L) LF

Batting Average:  Harrison Bader (.331)

Hits:  Trea Turner (179)

Home Runs:  Kyle Schwarber (53)

RBI:  Kyle Schwarber (128)

Stolen Bases:  Trea Turner (36)

Wins:  Jesús Luzardo (14)

Saves:  Jhoan Duran (15)

ERA:  Jhoan Duran (1.53)

Batting Average:  Geraldo Perdomo (.289)

Hits:  Geraldo Perdomo (162)

Home Runs:  Corbin Carroll (30)

RBI:  Geraldo Perdomo (97)

Stolen Bases:  Corbin Carroll (29)

Wins:  Brandon Pfaadt (13)

Saves:  Justin Martinez (5)

ERA:  Christian Montes De Oca (0.00)

Managers:

Philadelphia Phillies: Rob Thomson (4th season)

Arizona Diamondbacks: Torey Lovullo (9th season)