by Rod Pearson
Sunday, May 10, 2026
Game Time: 10:30 pm ET, Monday, May 11, 2026
Venue: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA
Where to Watch: Prime Video
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Thunder -10.5, Lakers +10.5; Over/Under: 213.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Thunder -10.5, Lakers +10.5; Over/Under: 213.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Thunder -10.5, Lakers +10.5; Over/Under: 213.5 points
Season Record
Oklahoma City Thunder: 64-18 (1st place, Northwest Division)
Los Angeles Lakers: 53-29 (1st place, Pacific Division)
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Recent Form
Oklahoma City Thunder: 8-2 last 10
Los Angeles Lakers: 5-5 last 10
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Los Angeles Lakers Preview and Analysis
The Thunder are entering the playoffs with a 64-18 record overall this season and they were 30-10 in their road games where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 7 game winning streak with wins coming against the Phoenix Suns 4 times in a row and the Los Angeles Lakers 3 times in a row. Ajay Mitchell led the team in points in that game with 24 while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was next on the team with 23 points. Ajay Mitchell led the team in assists in that game with 10 while Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein each led the team in rebounds with 9. They were 56.4% from the field, 44.7% from 3-point range, and 80% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 119 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 107.9 PPG against them. The Thunder have an ATS record of 44-45 this season and their O/U record is 48-41.
The Lakers are entering the playoffs with a 53-29 record overall this season and they were 28-13 in their home games where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 3 game losing streak with losses coming against the Oklahoma City Thunder 3 times in a row. Rui Hachimura led the team in points in that game with 21 while LeBron James was next on the team with 19 points. Austin Reaves led the team in assists in that game with 9 while Adou Thiero led the team in rebounds with 8. They were 46.9% from the field, 46.7% from 3-point range, and 72% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 116.3 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 114.6 PPG against them. The Lakers have an ATS record of 50-41 this season and their O/U record is 45-46.
Thunder vs Lakers Prediction
The current betting odds have the Thunder listed as a 10.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Thunder have looked great in their games this season with their 64-18 record overall which had them right at the top of the West with the best record in the entire NBA. They have been a great road team too with their 30-10 road record this year. Meanwhile, the Lakers have looked good in their games this season with their 53-29 record overall which had them in the top half of the West. They have looked good on their home court too with their 28-13 home record this season. This is game 4 of a 7-game series between the 1 seeded Thunder and the 4 seeded Lakers in the West for the 2nd round of the NBA playoffs. The Thunder are entering this game with a 3-0 series lead after winning game 3 by a score of 131-108. The Thunder are the defending NBA champions and they have been rolling in their games lately. They are 8-2 in their last 10 games and have a ton of momentum on their side with 7 wins in a row now. They are the only team in the NBA playoffs that hasn't lost a game, sweeping the Suns in the 1st round, and now they are on the verge of sweeping the Lakers in this series. They have been crushing their opponents in these games too, most of their wins coming by double digits, and the Lakers haven't really looked competitive in any of the games. The Lakers really needed Doncic to come back to have a chance in this series, but he is still missing from the lineup and the Lakers have looked hopeless in this series without him. It is clear that they don't have the talent to compete with the Thunder without Doncic, so look for the Thunder to continue rolling and pull off another series sweep here. The best way to place a bet here is on the Thunder to cover the spread in this game.
Thunder Lakers Prediction: Our NBA Pick for Monday, May 11, 2026 (10:30 pm ET start time) is Thunder 127 Lakers 107.
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NBA Betting Trends
Oklahoma City Thunder: 18-8 ATS against Pacific division opponents. 6-1 ATS in a road game where the total is 210 to 219.5. 3-0 ATS in the second round of the playoffs. 6-1 OVER in a road game where the total is 210 to 219.5.
Los Angeles Lakers: 2-9 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%). 0-6 ATS versus good defensive teams - allowing 108 points/game or less. 0-4 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points. 7-4 OVER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%).
Key Injuries
Oklahoma City Thunder: J. Williams (SG) Out - Hamstring. T. Sorber (C) Out For Season - Knee.
Los Angeles Lakers: L. Doncic (PG) Out - Hamstring.
Notable Quotes
“These obviously haven't been my best performances. But I think I've been able to help the team win, and that's most important. If the rest of the playoff run or the rest of my career looked like what it looked like the past few games, I'd be OK with it, because we won games.” - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander after their win against the LA Lakers in the 3rd game of this series on Saturday.
“They're an incredible basketball team. Third straight game we're right there after 2 1/2 quarters. We tried different lineups, different coverages. Still lost those minutes. Again, we've got to be better, but I'm not giving up on the series. We're going to go try to win on Monday. We're going to try to extend the series.” - JJ Redick after his team’s loss against the OKC Thunder in game 3 of this series on Saturday.
Starting Lineups
Oklahoma City Thunder
PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
SG Luguentz Dort
SF Cason Wallace
PF Chet Holmgren
C Isaiah Hartenstein
Los Angeles Lakers
PG Austin Reaves
SG Marcus Smart
SF Rui Hachimura
PF LeBron James
C Deandre Ayton
Statistical Leaders
Oklahoma City Thunder
PPG: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (31.1)
APG: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (6.6)
Reb/G: Isaiah Hartenstein (9.4)
Los Angeles Lakers
PPG: Luka Doncic (33.5)
APG: Luka Doncic (8.3)
Reb/G: Deandre Ayton (8)
Coaches:
Oklahoma City Thunder: Mark Daigneault (6th season)
Los Angeles Lakers: JJ Redick (2nd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
