Ohio State Buckeyes vs Texas Longhorns Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 09/12/2026

Game Time: 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, September 12, 2026

Venue:  Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX

Where to Watch:  ABC

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Ohio State +1.5, Texas -1.5; Over/Under:  49.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Ohio State +1.5, Texas -1.5; Over/Under:  49.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Ohio State +2, Texas -2; Over/Under:  49.5 points

Ohio State Buckeyes:  1-0 (0-0) (2nd place, Big Ten)

Texas Longhorns:  1-0 (0-0) (1st place, SEC)

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Ohio State Buckeyes:  won their last game at home against the Ball State Cardinals 56-3.

Texas Longhorns:  won their last game at home against the Texas State Bobcats 59-7.

Ohio State is entering this game with a 1-0 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their conference games too. They are 1-0 in their home games, 0-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against Ball State 56-3. Julian Sayin was the starting QB and he completed 21/25 passes for 320 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Bo Jackson led the team in rushing yards with 83 and 1 TD. Jeremiah Smith led the receivers with 151 receiving yards on 8 receptions and 2 TDs. Riley Pettijohn led the defense in that game with 6 tackles while Epi Sitanilei led the defense in sacks with 1. Tarvos Alford came away with the only interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

Texas is entering this game with a 1-0 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their conference games too. They are 1-0 in their home games, 0-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against Texas State 59-7. Arch Manning was the starting QB and he completed 20/27 passes for 305 passing yards, 4 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Daylan Smothers led the team in rushing yards with 70. Ryan Wingo led the receivers with 121 receiving yards on 7 receptions and 1 TD. Jelani McDonald led the defense in that game with 8 tackles while Maraad Watson led the defense in sacks with 1. Rasheem Biles came away with the only interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have Ohio State listed as a 1.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Ohio State has a 1-0 record overall this season after beating up on Ball State in their season opener. They beat Ball State 56-3 and they didn't take their foot off the gas in that one. They had one of the best defenses in the nation last season and even though they didn't really get tested in that 1st game, Ball State still couldn't do a thing on offense all game. Ohio State is once again going to have one of the best defenses in the nation and now they have a more experienced QB in his 2nd year starting with one of the best WRs in the nation too. Meanwhile, Texas has a 1-0 record overall this season after destroying a solid Texas State team in week 1. Texas State is still a much weaker opponent, but they have been playing in a stronger group of 6 conference and they have been a solid team the last few years. Texas State had one of the best offenses in the nation last season with the points they were putting up, but that Texas defense was able to hold them to 7 points in a 59-7 win. Texas put up a ton of points as the offense looked great in that season opener, but Texas State doesn't have a good defense, so the Texas offense wasn't really challenged too much. This is a really big game at home in week 2 now and all of the pressure is on Texas to win at home after what happened to them last season. This is a tough 5 matchup, but Ohio State is ranked 1st in the nation for a reason and they looked like they still have the best defense along with a stronger offense. Texas is coming off a season in which they fell short too and Ryan Day has been a lot better in these big games. The best way to place a bet here is on Ohio State to cover the spread in this game. 

Ohio State Texas Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, September 12, 2026 (7:30 pm ET start time) is Ohio State 24 Texas 20.

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Ohio State Buckeyes: 20-9 ATS against FBS division opponents. 9-3 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 15-6 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game. 7-1 UNDER in road lined games. 11-3 UNDER after scoring 37 points or more last game. 

Texas Longhorns: 3-9 ATS against Big 10 conference opponents. 26-38 ATS off a home blowout win by 28 points or more. 3-6 ATS after scoring 37 points or more last game. 8-4 UNDER when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 9-4 UNDER after allowing 14 points or less last game.

Ohio State Buckeyes:  K. Parker (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed.

Texas Longhorns:  D. McCutcheon (WR) Questionable - Illness. T. Goosby (OG) Questionable - Knee.

"I think that's why we keep the routine, the routine, to make sure that we're built for preparing for games like this, because everything we do is built around preparing for games like this. We try not to change that. I think his routine has been excellent and how he does that.” - Ryan Day on his team’s upcoming game against Texas this week. 

“The run game, we gotta look at and find ways to make it cleaner. I knew we’d have some growing pains today, which we did. Now we have to fix those going into next week." - Steve Sarkisian after his team’s win against Texas State in their last game. 

WR Smith, Jeremiah

WR McCuin, Devin

WR Inniss, Brandon

TE Roberts, Nate

QB Sayin, Julian

RB Jackson, Bo

WR Wingo, Ryan

WR Coleman, Cam

WR Mosley V, Emmett

TE Shannon, Spencer

TE Townsend, Nick

QB Manning, Arch

RB Smothers, Hollywood

Passing: Julian Sayin (320)

Rushing: Bo Jackson (83)

Receiving: Jeremiah Smith (151)

Touchdowns: Jeremiah Smith (2)

Passing: Arch Manning (305)

Rushing: Hollywood Smothers (70)

Receiving: Cam Coleman (70)

Touchdowns: Cam Coleman (2)

Coaches:

Ohio State Buckeyes: Ryan Day (9th season)

Texas Longhorns: Steve Sarkisian (6th season)