by Al McMordie
Friday, Sep 05, 2025The 2025 NFL season is underway, as the defending Champion Eagles defeated the Cowboys last night, 24-20. Unfortunately for Philadelphia backers, the Champs failed to cover the 8-point spread. And that is par for the course in Week 1 of the NFL, as we consistently see the better teams from the prior year underperform against teams that were less successful that season.
Our NFL System of the Week is based on this idea, and it looks to play against teams in Week 1 if they made the Playoffs the prior season, and were matched up against an opponent which did not make the Playoffs. Since 1980, in Week 1, our teams that were involved in the Playoffs have gone just 131-157-6 ATS vs. foes that failed to reach the post-season the previous year.
Of course, there's nothing wrong with 54.5%, but we always look to tighten up our systems with additional, meaningful variables. Here, the most obvious tightener is to only play on home teams in Week 1 that missed the prior season's Playoffs vs. foes that reached the post-season. With that additional fact, we eliminate a 67-63-1 ATS subset, and move our 157-131-6 ATS system to a very solid 90-68-5 ATS (56.9%).
This week, there are three home teams that failed to make the Playoffs that are hosting a team which qualified for the post-season last year: New York Jets +3, Atlanta Falcons +1, and Chicago Bears +1.5.
Don't be surprised if these home dogs bark loudly this week.
Good luck, as always,
Al McMordie
Our NFL System of the Week is based on this idea, and it looks to play against teams in Week 1 if they made the Playoffs the prior season, and were matched up against an opponent which did not make the Playoffs. Since 1980, in Week 1, our teams that were involved in the Playoffs have gone just 131-157-6 ATS vs. foes that failed to reach the post-season the previous year.
Of course, there's nothing wrong with 54.5%, but we always look to tighten up our systems with additional, meaningful variables. Here, the most obvious tightener is to only play on home teams in Week 1 that missed the prior season's Playoffs vs. foes that reached the post-season. With that additional fact, we eliminate a 67-63-1 ATS subset, and move our 157-131-6 ATS system to a very solid 90-68-5 ATS (56.9%).
This week, there are three home teams that failed to make the Playoffs that are hosting a team which qualified for the post-season last year: New York Jets +3, Atlanta Falcons +1, and Chicago Bears +1.5.
Don't be surprised if these home dogs bark loudly this week.
Good luck, as always,
Al McMordie
