by Sean Murphy
Wednesday, Sep 16, 2026We're one week into the NFL season and as usual there are overreactions to a number of season-opening results. Week 2 is often when we see those wild overreactions control the betting marketplace and I don't think this year will be any different.
Here's a look at several knee-jerk reactions coming out of Week 1 and where the value may lie in this week's contests.
Tennessee Titans
Whether it's an overreaction or not is up for debate but there's no question bettors are running as far as they can from the Titans after last Sunday's disastrous performance. Tennessee checks in as a touchdown underdog at home against Philadelphia this week. It's not as if Tennessee brought much optimism into the season but it was favored against the Jets last Sunday. The common line of thinking is that the Titans are already building toward next year, when they'll open a new stadium. Of note, the Eagles failed to cover the spread at home against the Commanders last Sunday but did secure a 24-22 victory. I lined up against the Titans with the Jets last week but can certainly make a case for backing the unpopular home underdog here in Week 2. There might not be a spot where betting sentiment toward Tennessee is more negative all season and that's saying something given its poor outlook.
Chicago Bears
It's not so much that the Bears won in Week 1 - that was expected as they were favored in Carolina. It was the way they won, hanging just shy of 60 points on the board in a blowout victory. Chicago head coach Ben Johnson did indicate prior to the start of the regular season that he wanted his team's offense to not only be efficient, but record-setting this season. So far, so good. I do think we're seeing a bit of an overreaction to that Week 1 result, however, as Chicago returns home to lay 5.5 points against the division rival Vikings who were impressive in their own right in an eventual lopsided win over the Packers. The total might actually be the best place to shift our focus here with the number approaching 50 in a divisional affair. Minnesota figures to have little interest in a track meet with a cloudy quarterback situation following the scary concussion suffered by Kyler Murray lst week. We know Vikes DC Brian Flores is more than capable of scheming up his talented group and this is obviously a big early season showdown.
New England Patriots
The Patriots looked lifeless against the Seahawks - again - in last week's ugly midweek season-opener in Seattle. New England couldn't take advantage of an early injury to Seahawks QB Sam Darnold in that contest. Now it limps home to host another tough defensive opponent in the Steelers at Foxborough. Pittsburgh comes off a 20-13 win at home against the Falcons last week. Keep in mind, Atlanta was down to third-string QB Cooper Rush for that contest. I would certainly anticipate the Pats rebounding here in a home favorite role against a familiar opponent. New England is currently listed as a five-point favorite, noting that this will be a 'revenge' spot for the Pats after dropping last year's matchup 21-14, also at home. It's likely a stay-away game for me from a pointspread perspective but I do anticipate New England picking up its first win.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers offensive line issues are undoubtedly a concern after they produced an absolute stinker at home in an 'upset' loss against the Cardinals last week. Los Angeles did its mountain of 'survivor' supporters no favors with that result. Without question the Chargers have quickly fallen out of favor with most bettors and now host the 1-0 Raiders, who showed plenty of life in last week's rout of the Dolphins. It's important not to overreact to that Las Vegas victory in particular as Miami might just be one of the worst NFL teams we've seen in a number of years (I don't believe that's an overreaction). We've seen this line come down since opening with the Chargers now favored by less than a touchdown. The last time these two teams met in late November of last year the Chargers prevailed by a score of 31-14. I certainly won't be quick to bet against a Los Angeles rebound victory and ATS cover at SoFi Stadium on Sunday.
Here's a look at several knee-jerk reactions coming out of Week 1 and where the value may lie in this week's contests.
Tennessee Titans
Whether it's an overreaction or not is up for debate but there's no question bettors are running as far as they can from the Titans after last Sunday's disastrous performance. Tennessee checks in as a touchdown underdog at home against Philadelphia this week. It's not as if Tennessee brought much optimism into the season but it was favored against the Jets last Sunday. The common line of thinking is that the Titans are already building toward next year, when they'll open a new stadium. Of note, the Eagles failed to cover the spread at home against the Commanders last Sunday but did secure a 24-22 victory. I lined up against the Titans with the Jets last week but can certainly make a case for backing the unpopular home underdog here in Week 2. There might not be a spot where betting sentiment toward Tennessee is more negative all season and that's saying something given its poor outlook.
Chicago Bears
It's not so much that the Bears won in Week 1 - that was expected as they were favored in Carolina. It was the way they won, hanging just shy of 60 points on the board in a blowout victory. Chicago head coach Ben Johnson did indicate prior to the start of the regular season that he wanted his team's offense to not only be efficient, but record-setting this season. So far, so good. I do think we're seeing a bit of an overreaction to that Week 1 result, however, as Chicago returns home to lay 5.5 points against the division rival Vikings who were impressive in their own right in an eventual lopsided win over the Packers. The total might actually be the best place to shift our focus here with the number approaching 50 in a divisional affair. Minnesota figures to have little interest in a track meet with a cloudy quarterback situation following the scary concussion suffered by Kyler Murray lst week. We know Vikes DC Brian Flores is more than capable of scheming up his talented group and this is obviously a big early season showdown.
New England Patriots
The Patriots looked lifeless against the Seahawks - again - in last week's ugly midweek season-opener in Seattle. New England couldn't take advantage of an early injury to Seahawks QB Sam Darnold in that contest. Now it limps home to host another tough defensive opponent in the Steelers at Foxborough. Pittsburgh comes off a 20-13 win at home against the Falcons last week. Keep in mind, Atlanta was down to third-string QB Cooper Rush for that contest. I would certainly anticipate the Pats rebounding here in a home favorite role against a familiar opponent. New England is currently listed as a five-point favorite, noting that this will be a 'revenge' spot for the Pats after dropping last year's matchup 21-14, also at home. It's likely a stay-away game for me from a pointspread perspective but I do anticipate New England picking up its first win.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers offensive line issues are undoubtedly a concern after they produced an absolute stinker at home in an 'upset' loss against the Cardinals last week. Los Angeles did its mountain of 'survivor' supporters no favors with that result. Without question the Chargers have quickly fallen out of favor with most bettors and now host the 1-0 Raiders, who showed plenty of life in last week's rout of the Dolphins. It's important not to overreact to that Las Vegas victory in particular as Miami might just be one of the worst NFL teams we've seen in a number of years (I don't believe that's an overreaction). We've seen this line come down since opening with the Chargers now favored by less than a touchdown. The last time these two teams met in late November of last year the Chargers prevailed by a score of 31-14. I certainly won't be quick to bet against a Los Angeles rebound victory and ATS cover at SoFi Stadium on Sunday.
