NFL MVP Longshots

Let’s take a look at a few longshots to win the NFL MVP.  It makes no sense to look anywhere but QB’s as 17 of the last 18 MVP’s have been signal callers.  We’ll eliminate the single digit favorites of 10/1 or less (Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and Jayden Daniels) and look for a few that could give you a larger return.

 

Tampa Bay QB Baker Mayfield at +2500

 

Mayfield had an under the radar huge year in 2024 throwing for 4,500 yards, 41 TD’s with a 71% completion rate.  He finished 3rd, 2nd, and 5th in the NFL in those stats respectively.  He also helped the Bucs to a 10 win season and he nearly led them to a Wildcard win over Washington (23-20 loss) who went onto play in the NFC Championship game.  The Bucs are in one of the weakest divisions with all other teams finishing below .500 last year.  They are projected to win 9 or 10 games this season (9.5 win total) which would most likely get them another NFC South crown and put them in the playoffs.  Tampa had the 6th best point differential in the NFL last season and the offense is loaded with weapons once again.  RB Irving rushed for over 1,100 yards last season and WR’s Evans, Godwin (who they expect back in October) and Ohio State rookie Egbuka give Mayfield and the Buccaneers a shot at another huge offensive season.  Make the playoffs and win a few games and Mayfield should be right in the middle of the MVP discussion.

 

Denver QB Bo Nix at +3500

 

We’re getting Nix at really solid odds here at 35/1.  We understand why his odds are higher than we would anticipate as making the playoffs is a huge prerequisite for winning the NFL MVP award and that’s no guarantee in this tough division.  The Broncos made it to the post-season last year (10 regular season wins) and we expect them to have a great shot again this season.  Last year wasn’t a fluke as the Broncos had the 3rd best pt differential in the AFC behind only Baltimore & Buffalo.  Six of their seven losses came by a TD or less so they were a few plays away from an 11 or 12 win season.  Nix had an outstanding rookie year with almost 3,800 passing yards and 29 TD’s.   We expect him to take a solid leap in his 2nd season under head coach Sean Payton who is known as a high level QB developer who will again cater Denver’s offense to Nix’s strengths.  He’ll operate behind one of the top offensive lines in the NFL (3rd last season in sacks allowed) and they’ve upgraded his weapons adding RB’s Dobbins and rookie Harvey, rookie WR Franklin and veteran TE Abrams.  The Broncos were ousted by Buffalo in the Wildcard round last year but if they can get back to the playoffs and win a game or two, Nix has a shot.