NFL Coach of the Year Projections

 

A few prerequisites before we dive into a few of our projections for NFL Coach of the Year.  First of all, they have to lead their team to the playoffs.  Every NFL Coach of the Year in the last 30 seasons have pushed their teams into the postseason.  Secondly, they better exceed their win projections (obvious) and by a decent margin.  Of the last 30 NFL Coach of the Year winners, they have won an average of +4.5 games above their predicted season win total.  Finding a team/coach that has a lower team total that you think is in line for a big turnaround is the way to go rather than a team that is already projected to be very good.  In fact, only 1 coach has won this award with a win total set at 10 or more in the last 30 years (Bill Belichick) and the average win total (prior to the season) of the last 30 winners was 7.5.  Another thing to consider is a rookie head coach has won 4 of the last 8 NFL Coach of the Year awards and 8 of the last 20 (40%).  With those things in mind, here are a few of our recommendations, one from the AFC and one from the NFC.

 

 

Coen is a 1st year head man who worked as the offensive coordinator under Sean McVay (LA Rams) in 2022 and last year revitalized the Tampa Bay offense.  He took a poor Bucs offense from 2023 and pushed them into the top 5 in the NFL in scoring, YPG, and YPP last season.  He helped a previously middling QB Baker Mayfield to set career highs in most key categories and we would expect the same with former first overall pick Jacksonville QB Trevor Lawrence, who was injured much of last season.  Lawrence will have a solid WR unit with Thomas and rookie Travis Hunter who won the Heisman at Colorado.  The Jags play in a weak division with Houston the only team in the AFC South projected to win 8+ games and they might be overvalued with a +0 (dead even) point differential last year despite their 10-7 record.  Jacksonville faces the 6th easiest schedule overall based on oddmakers projected win totals.  They were just 4-13 last season and if they can get to 9 or more wins and sneak into the playoffs, Coen will have a solid shot at this award.

 

 

Canales is in his 2nd year with the Panthers and we look for some big improvement in 2025.  Carolina was actually playing quite well down the stretch winning 4 of their final 9 games with tight losses to playoff teams during that final run.  They lost by 3 vs KC (Super Bowl team), by 3 in OT vs Tampa Bay (playoff team) and by 6 vs Philadelphia (Super Bowl Winner).  After benching starting QB Bryce Young early last season, he came back to re-take the job in late October and played the best ball of his career from that point on with 20 TD’s over his final 10 games.  His offensive line was quietly one of the best in the NFL (top 10) and the defense added some key veterans up front.  The Panthers play the 7th easiest schedule based on oddmakers projected win totals and their division is shaky at best.  Atlanta (7.5 wins) and New Orleans (5.5 wins) have low expectations with Tampa leading the way.  If Carolina can finish 2nd in the NFC South (that’s where the oddsmakers have them projected to finish) they could sneak into the Playoffs as a wildcard and after winning only 7 total games the last 2 seasons and not making the playoffs since 2017, that would put Canales as a frontrunner for Coach of the Year.