by Matt Fargo
Saturday, Aug 08, 2026All win totals courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Seattle Seahawks Under 10.5 -105
The Seahawks are the reigning Super Bowl champions after not coming in as one of the favorites and that is where they reside now. Seattle was led by the defense that finished No. 1 in EPA which came against a relatively soft schedule but that will change this season as the slate strengthens, projected to face the hardest group of opposing offenses. As for their own offense, it really was nothing special last season as the Seahawks were No. 14 in EPA and now they are without offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak who is the new head coach in Las Vegas. Overall, the schedule is ranked No. 5 in strength per PFF and after surpassing their total by 5.5 games last season, the Seahawks are 6-1-1 to the over the last eight seasons which adds to the contrarian value.
New York Giants Over 7.5 -110
The Giants made the biggest coaching splash in the offseason with the hiring of Jim Harbaugh. This should put some life into a franchise that has been down for far too long as the Giants have won more than seven games only twice in the last 13 years while Harbaugh won fewer than eight games just once in his 18 years. Going back, New York is 12-2-1 to the under over the last 15 seasons so this once storied unit has seen better days and this team has similarities to the Patriots from last season. Last season, three of their four wins were by 17 points or more while seven losses were by one possession. The schedule has nine home games including the Titans, Cardinals, Saints and Browns so this will be a popular play but we cannot miss out.
Chicago Bears Under 9.5 -120
The Bears are coming off one of their best seasons in a while as they won 11 games and took the NFC North for the first time since 2018. Chicago went over its win total for the first time since 2018 as well and while the number this year is lower than what they won last season, regression is expected. The Bears were very fortunate last season as they led the league in turnover differential at +22 with Houston second at +17 so it was a significant part of their success. Additionally, seven of those 11 wins were by one possession and by an average of 3.1 ppg while also winning a playoff game by four points as well. The schedule stiffens this season with road games against quality teams and they will face the seventh toughest slate of offenses.
New Orleans Saints Over 7.5 -120
New Orleans is coming off a six-win season after winning five games in 2024 and those combined 11 wins are the fewest in consecutive years since 2004 and 2005. The Saints managed to go over their 4.5-win total last season and there is a significant jump this season but there is plenty to look forward to. They finished strong last season by going 4-1 in their last five games, the only loss coming by two points at Atlanta which was one of five one possession defeats. This season, they play the second easiest schedule behind only Detroit and while they open with a pair of tough road games against the Lions and Ravens, the next eight weeks consist of five home games, one road game, one game in France and their bye week while overall playing in a very weak division.
San Francisco 49ers Under 9.5 +120
Expectations are high in San Francisco once again as it is coming off a 12-win season, reaching double-digit wins for the fourth time in five seasons, as it benefitted from an easy schedule. The 49ers opened 4-1 with the four wins coming by 13 points combined and of the final eight wins, only two were against playoff teams and one of those was Carolina. This season, the schedule isn’t horrible as it is ranked the No. 14 easiest as they only play seven true road games as the eighth is in Australia against the Rams which takes a tough road game off the slate. Still, the 49ers have to face the Rams and Seahawks four times while playing the tough AFC West and the improving NFC East. They have gone over their win total in consecutive years only once since 2013.
Detroit Lions Over 10.5 -115
The Lions went from first to worst as after winning the NFC North in 2024, they finished tied for last place last season and missed the playoffs. A 4-1 start turned into a 5-7 finish as Detroit was crippled with injuries while five of those losses were by one possession. The schedule was tough as that injury riddled defense had to face the ninth hardest group of opposing offenses. This season, the schedule is the easiest in the NFL and they have only eight true road games as in addition to the three division games and at Buffalo, the other four are at Carolina, Arizona, Miami and Atlanta. They are currently favored in every home game with only two of those being under a field goal (Packers and Bears). Expect better luck this season and look more like the 2024 Lions.
Seattle Seahawks Under 10.5 -105
The Seahawks are the reigning Super Bowl champions after not coming in as one of the favorites and that is where they reside now. Seattle was led by the defense that finished No. 1 in EPA which came against a relatively soft schedule but that will change this season as the slate strengthens, projected to face the hardest group of opposing offenses. As for their own offense, it really was nothing special last season as the Seahawks were No. 14 in EPA and now they are without offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak who is the new head coach in Las Vegas. Overall, the schedule is ranked No. 5 in strength per PFF and after surpassing their total by 5.5 games last season, the Seahawks are 6-1-1 to the over the last eight seasons which adds to the contrarian value.
New York Giants Over 7.5 -110
The Giants made the biggest coaching splash in the offseason with the hiring of Jim Harbaugh. This should put some life into a franchise that has been down for far too long as the Giants have won more than seven games only twice in the last 13 years while Harbaugh won fewer than eight games just once in his 18 years. Going back, New York is 12-2-1 to the under over the last 15 seasons so this once storied unit has seen better days and this team has similarities to the Patriots from last season. Last season, three of their four wins were by 17 points or more while seven losses were by one possession. The schedule has nine home games including the Titans, Cardinals, Saints and Browns so this will be a popular play but we cannot miss out.
Chicago Bears Under 9.5 -120
The Bears are coming off one of their best seasons in a while as they won 11 games and took the NFC North for the first time since 2018. Chicago went over its win total for the first time since 2018 as well and while the number this year is lower than what they won last season, regression is expected. The Bears were very fortunate last season as they led the league in turnover differential at +22 with Houston second at +17 so it was a significant part of their success. Additionally, seven of those 11 wins were by one possession and by an average of 3.1 ppg while also winning a playoff game by four points as well. The schedule stiffens this season with road games against quality teams and they will face the seventh toughest slate of offenses.
New Orleans Saints Over 7.5 -120
New Orleans is coming off a six-win season after winning five games in 2024 and those combined 11 wins are the fewest in consecutive years since 2004 and 2005. The Saints managed to go over their 4.5-win total last season and there is a significant jump this season but there is plenty to look forward to. They finished strong last season by going 4-1 in their last five games, the only loss coming by two points at Atlanta which was one of five one possession defeats. This season, they play the second easiest schedule behind only Detroit and while they open with a pair of tough road games against the Lions and Ravens, the next eight weeks consist of five home games, one road game, one game in France and their bye week while overall playing in a very weak division.
San Francisco 49ers Under 9.5 +120
Expectations are high in San Francisco once again as it is coming off a 12-win season, reaching double-digit wins for the fourth time in five seasons, as it benefitted from an easy schedule. The 49ers opened 4-1 with the four wins coming by 13 points combined and of the final eight wins, only two were against playoff teams and one of those was Carolina. This season, the schedule isn’t horrible as it is ranked the No. 14 easiest as they only play seven true road games as the eighth is in Australia against the Rams which takes a tough road game off the slate. Still, the 49ers have to face the Rams and Seahawks four times while playing the tough AFC West and the improving NFC East. They have gone over their win total in consecutive years only once since 2013.
Detroit Lions Over 10.5 -115
The Lions went from first to worst as after winning the NFC North in 2024, they finished tied for last place last season and missed the playoffs. A 4-1 start turned into a 5-7 finish as Detroit was crippled with injuries while five of those losses were by one possession. The schedule was tough as that injury riddled defense had to face the ninth hardest group of opposing offenses. This season, the schedule is the easiest in the NFL and they have only eight true road games as in addition to the three division games and at Buffalo, the other four are at Carolina, Arizona, Miami and Atlanta. They are currently favored in every home game with only two of those being under a field goal (Packers and Bears). Expect better luck this season and look more like the 2024 Lions.
