by Will Rogers
Friday, Aug 01, 2025With the trade deadline now in the rearview mirror, the baseball picture is beginning to become more clear. Some teams are all but assured of a spot in the postseason. Others have recently joined the "playing out the string" club. Some teams went "all in" at the deadline while others simply waved the white flag. Let's get caught up with some news and notes from around the league.
Trade Deadline Winners
Time will tell how it all works out and whether or not their deals were prudent. For the time being, five teams which improved at the deadline include the Mets, Padres, Phillies, Mariners and Astros. It looks like the Mets and Phillies are going to battle each other tooth and nail the whole way, for supremacy in the NL East. I think the same will be true of the Astros and Mariners, another pair of teams which each improved at the deadline. Keep reading for more about Seattle's future odds.
Trade Deadline Losers
The Twins weren't totally eliminated from contention but elected to trade away nearly their entire starting lineup. We'll see how it works out for them over the next couple of years. For now, the fans aren't happy. Other teams which were arguably losers at the deadline include the: Giants, Red Sox and Brewers. Boston still has (had?) a realistic chance of making the playoffs (See below) but elected not to "go for it." The Brewers are having an amazing season but refused to pull the trigger on a player that could put them over the top. The same could arguably said of the Cubs.
Awards
Each of the major awards has a clear front-runner, particularly the AL Rookie Of the Year and the NL MVP categories. However, there's still quite a long way to go. Here are the current odds from Draft Kings.
AL Cy Young
Skubal -450
Crochet +300
deGrom +2200
NL Cy Young
Skenes -175
Wheeler +130
Sanchez +4000
AL MVP
Judge -185
Raleigh +150
Skubal +7000
NL MVP
Ohtani -2000
Crow-Armstrong +1100
Schwarber +2000
AL Rookie Of The Year
Kurtz -8000
NL Rookie Of The Year
Baldwin -190
Misiorowski +250
Collins +600
Playoff Picture
When betting on baseball at this time of the year, it's important to know who still has something to play for. No teams have officially wrapped up a spot but many have a very strong chance of doing so. Eleven teams are quite likely to make the playoffs, 12 if you count the Red Sox, who are better than 60%. Nearly half the teams (14 of 16) have no realistic chance, as they are currently listed at less than 10% to make the playoffs. The percentages I've included are from FanGraphs.com and are current, as of August 1st.
Very Likely In (75% and up)
Dodgers (99.4%)
Tigers (98.5%)
Cubs (97%)
Blue Jays (96.8%)
Phillies (96.7%)
Brewers (96.2%)
Mets (95.5%)
Yankees (93.6%)
Astros (92.4%)
Padres (87.8%)
Mariners (76.4%)
Maybe (35% to 75%)
Red Sox (61.9%)
Rangers (39.9%)
Unlikely (10% to 35%)
Royals (12%)
Guardians (11.7%)
Reds (10.9%)
Out (10% or less)
Rays (9.1%)
Cardinals (7.4%)
Giants (7.3%)
Angels (3.7%)
Twins (3.3%)
Diamondbacks (1%)
Marlins (0.6%)
Orioles (0.5%)
Braves (0.2%)
Rockies, Nationals, White Sox, Athletics, Pirates (0%)
Divisional Winners (Courtesy of Draft Kings)
Here are the current odds to win each of the divisions. The Tigers and Dodgers are considered to be pretty much sure things but the other four divisions remain competitive. I've highlighted the Mariners as I feel that they offer value, as +240 underdogs. They've got the pitching and they improved their hitting greatly at the trade deadline. The Astros also improved but they've still got some issues and their lead is far from insurmountable. At the moment, Houston has a 4.5 game lead; the teams will play each other three times in late September.
AL East
TOR Blue Jays −155
NY Yankees +165
BOS Red Sox +800
TB Rays +10000
BAL Orioles +50000
AL Central
DET Tigers −4000
CLE Guardians +3000
KC Royals +4500
MIN Twins +7000
AL West
HOU Astros −205
SEA Mariners +240
TEX Rangers +800
LA Angels +13000
NL East
NY Mets −125
PHI Phillies −105
ATL Braves +100000
NL Central
CHI Cubs −130
MIL Brewers +105
CIN Reds +4000
STL Cardinals +10000
NL West
LA Dodgers −1100
SD Padres +750
SF Giants +8000
ARI Diamondbacks +40000
Trade Deadline Winners
Time will tell how it all works out and whether or not their deals were prudent. For the time being, five teams which improved at the deadline include the Mets, Padres, Phillies, Mariners and Astros. It looks like the Mets and Phillies are going to battle each other tooth and nail the whole way, for supremacy in the NL East. I think the same will be true of the Astros and Mariners, another pair of teams which each improved at the deadline. Keep reading for more about Seattle's future odds.
Trade Deadline Losers
The Twins weren't totally eliminated from contention but elected to trade away nearly their entire starting lineup. We'll see how it works out for them over the next couple of years. For now, the fans aren't happy. Other teams which were arguably losers at the deadline include the: Giants, Red Sox and Brewers. Boston still has (had?) a realistic chance of making the playoffs (See below) but elected not to "go for it." The Brewers are having an amazing season but refused to pull the trigger on a player that could put them over the top. The same could arguably said of the Cubs.
Awards
Each of the major awards has a clear front-runner, particularly the AL Rookie Of the Year and the NL MVP categories. However, there's still quite a long way to go. Here are the current odds from Draft Kings.
AL Cy Young
Skubal -450
Crochet +300
deGrom +2200
NL Cy Young
Skenes -175
Wheeler +130
Sanchez +4000
AL MVP
Judge -185
Raleigh +150
Skubal +7000
NL MVP
Ohtani -2000
Crow-Armstrong +1100
Schwarber +2000
AL Rookie Of The Year
Kurtz -8000
NL Rookie Of The Year
Baldwin -190
Misiorowski +250
Collins +600
Playoff Picture
When betting on baseball at this time of the year, it's important to know who still has something to play for. No teams have officially wrapped up a spot but many have a very strong chance of doing so. Eleven teams are quite likely to make the playoffs, 12 if you count the Red Sox, who are better than 60%. Nearly half the teams (14 of 16) have no realistic chance, as they are currently listed at less than 10% to make the playoffs. The percentages I've included are from FanGraphs.com and are current, as of August 1st.
Very Likely In (75% and up)
Dodgers (99.4%)
Tigers (98.5%)
Cubs (97%)
Blue Jays (96.8%)
Phillies (96.7%)
Brewers (96.2%)
Mets (95.5%)
Yankees (93.6%)
Astros (92.4%)
Padres (87.8%)
Mariners (76.4%)
Maybe (35% to 75%)
Red Sox (61.9%)
Rangers (39.9%)
Unlikely (10% to 35%)
Royals (12%)
Guardians (11.7%)
Reds (10.9%)
Out (10% or less)
Rays (9.1%)
Cardinals (7.4%)
Giants (7.3%)
Angels (3.7%)
Twins (3.3%)
Diamondbacks (1%)
Marlins (0.6%)
Orioles (0.5%)
Braves (0.2%)
Rockies, Nationals, White Sox, Athletics, Pirates (0%)
Divisional Winners (Courtesy of Draft Kings)
Here are the current odds to win each of the divisions. The Tigers and Dodgers are considered to be pretty much sure things but the other four divisions remain competitive. I've highlighted the Mariners as I feel that they offer value, as +240 underdogs. They've got the pitching and they improved their hitting greatly at the trade deadline. The Astros also improved but they've still got some issues and their lead is far from insurmountable. At the moment, Houston has a 4.5 game lead; the teams will play each other three times in late September.
AL East
TOR Blue Jays −155
NY Yankees +165
BOS Red Sox +800
TB Rays +10000
BAL Orioles +50000
AL Central
DET Tigers −4000
CLE Guardians +3000
KC Royals +4500
MIN Twins +7000
AL West
HOU Astros −205
SEA Mariners +240
TEX Rangers +800
LA Angels +13000
NL East
NY Mets −125
PHI Phillies −105
ATL Braves +100000
NL Central
CHI Cubs −130
MIL Brewers +105
CIN Reds +4000
STL Cardinals +10000
NL West
LA Dodgers −1100
SD Padres +750
SF Giants +8000
ARI Diamondbacks +40000
