New York Yankees vs San Diego Padres Prediction, Preview and Odds - 09/04/2026

Game Time: 9:40 pm ET, Friday, September 4, 2026

Venue:  Petco Park, San Diego, CA

Where to Watch:  MLB TV

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Yankees -131, Padres +108; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Yankees -130, Padres +110; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Yankees -135, Padres +110; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

New York Yankees:  80-60 (2nd place, AL East)

San Diego Padres:  73-67 (3rd place, NL West)

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New York Yankees:  6-4 last 10

San Diego Padres:  3-7 last 10

The Yankees are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the Los Angeles Angels 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with an 80-60 record overall and have a road record of 43-29. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Padres on Friday and they have Thursday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 15th in the MLB with a .720 OPS. Cam Schlittler was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Max Fried is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 4-4 with a 2.80 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 1 ER, 1 HR, and 1 BB with 4 SO on 3 hits through 3.2 IP against the Boston Red Sox.

The Padres are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Cincinnati Reds 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 73-67 record overall and have a home record of 41-28. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Yankees on Friday and they have Thursday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 24th in the MLB with a .702 OPS. Casey Mize was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Walker Buehler is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 8-6 with a 4.66 ERA this season. His team lost 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 3 earned runs, 2 homers, and 0 walks with 3 strikeouts on 7 hits through 5 innings pitched against the Tampa Bay Rays.

The current betting odds have the Yankees listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Yankees have looked really good in their games this season with their 80-60 record overall which has them right near the top of the AL East. They have been a great road team too with their 43-29 road record this year. Meanwhile, the Padres have looked good in their games this season with their 73-67 record overall which has them right in the middle of the NL West. They have looked great in their own ballpark too with their 41-28 home record this season. The Padres are right on the outside looking in for that last Wild Card spot in the NL. They have been battling with the Diamondbacks, but lately they have looked terrible as they are 3-7 in their last 10 games and have been giving the race away. The Yankees have been getting hot lately, now 6-4 in their last 10 games, and they are still trying to catch the Rays in 1st place while fending off the Red Sox in 3rd. They are going to be motivated to beat up on a struggling Padres team and they are going to have the better pitching matchup in this one too. The Yankees are going with Fried in this one and he has looked great this season. He is 4-4 with a 2.80 ERA and he hasn't been giving up many runs lately. He is coming off another great start giving up 1 earned run which has been a common theme for him and the team has been having success with him too, winning 2 of their last 3 games with him starting. The Padres are going with Buehler in this one and he hasn't looked great this season. He is 8-6 with a 4.66 ERA and he has been giving up quite a few runs. He gave up 3 earned runs in his last start which has been a common theme for him all year and the team has lost 2 of their last 3 games with him starting too. These two teams are heading in opposite directions at the moment, so look for the Yankees to take advantage of this pitching matchup. The best way to place a bet here is on the Yankees to win this game. 

Yankees Padres Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Friday, September 4, 2026 (9:40 pm ET start time) is Yankees 4 Padres 1.

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New York Yankees: 278-206 (-15.5 units) on the moneyline in all games. 234-163 (-22.7 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 69-65 (-21.9 units) on the moneyline in an inter-league game. 30-14 UNDER on the road with a money line of -100 to -150.

San Diego Padres: 262-213 (+25.8 units) on the moneyline in all games. 141-94 (+18.3 units) on the moneyline in home games. 99-97 (+27.3 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or higher. 22-15 UNDER at home when the money line is +125 to -125.

New York Yankees:  G. Lombard Jr. (SS) Day To Day - Knee. F. Cruz (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. K. Castro (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. G. Stanton (DH) Sixty Day IL - Calf. R. Weathers (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. A. Judge (RF) Sixty Day IL - Rib. C. Schmidt (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

San Diego Padres:  L. Rengifo (LF) Sixty Day IL - Knee. G. Sheets (1B) Ten Day IL - Foot. J. Estrada (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. M. Andujar (DH) Ten Day IL - Wrist. J. Adam (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. L. Giolito (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. R. Laureano (LF) Sixty Day IL - Hip. N. Pivetta (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. B. Hoeing (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Musgrove (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

"[Murphy is] tough on lefties, and Wellsy has a long at-bat and eventually outlasts him. To do all the damage that we did there with two outs was massive, and turned a light day offensively into a really good way to end this series and head into an off-day." - Aaron Boone after his team’s win against the LA Angels in their game on Wednesday. 

“We didn’t play our best baseball, especially here in Cincinnati. But I also think we should be thankful, because somebody didn’t run away with the third Wild Card spot that we’re fighting for. We’re still right there where we want to be -- in contention.” - Craig Stammen after his team’s loss against the Reds in their game on Wednesday. 

Paul Goldschmidt (R) 1B

Cody Bellinger (L) LF

Heliot Ramos (R) RF

Ben Rice (L) DH

Amed Rosario (R) 3B

Spencer Jones (L) CF

José Caballero (R) SS

Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L) 2B

Ali Sánchez (R) C

Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) 2B

Samad Taylor (R) LF

Jackson Merrill (L) CF

Ty France (R) 1B

Xander Bogaerts (R) SS

Ethan Salas (L) C

Austin Hays (R) RF

Luis Campusano (R) DH

Jake Cronenworth (L) 3B

Batting Average:  Luis García (.292)

Hits:  Ben Rice (127)

Home Runs:  Ben Rice (35)

RBI:  Ben Rice (87)

Stolen Bases:  Jazz Chisholm (40)

Wins:  Cam Schlittler (12)

Saves:  David Bednar (31)

ERA:  Justin Topa (0.00)

Batting Average:  Dustin Harris (.421)

Hits:  Fernando Tatis (154)

Home Runs:  Manny Machado (24)

RBI:  Manny Machado (75)

Stolen Bases:  Fernando Tatis (31)

Wins:  Randy Vásquez (10)

Saves:  Mason Miller (32)

ERA:  Mason Miller (1.26)

Managers:

New York Yankees: Aaron Boone (9th season)

San Diego Padres: Craig Stammen (1st season)