New York Yankees vs Houston Astros Prediction, Preview and Odds - 09/04/2025

Game Time: 7:40 pm ET, Thursday, September 4, 2025

Venue:  Daikin Park, Houston, TX 

Where to Watch:  MLBN

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Yankees -127, Tigers +104; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Yankees -125, Tigers +105; Over/Under:  9 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Yankees -125, Tigers +105; Over/Under:  9 runs

New York Yankees:  77-61 (2nd place, AL East)

Houston Astros:  76-63 (1st place, AL West)

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New York Yankees:  8-2 last 10

Houston Astros:  5-5 last 10

The Yankees are entering this series off a loss and won their 4-game series against the Chicago White Sox 3-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 77-61 record overall and have a road record of 36-33. This is the series finale of a 3-game series with the Astros on Thursday with the 2nd game still to be played on Wednesday. The Yankees won the series opener on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 1st in the MLB with a .788 OPS. Will Warren is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Carlos Rodón is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 15-7 with a 3.18 ERA this season. His team won their last 5 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 1 ER, 0 HR, and 2 BB with 5 SO on 7 hits through 6 IP against the Chicago White Sox.

The Astros are entering this series off a win and split their 4-game series against the Los Angeles Angels 2-2 in their last series. They enter this game with a 76-63 record overall and have a home record of 42-31. This is the 3rd game of a 3-game series with the Yankees on Thursday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Wednesday. The Astros lost the 1st game of this series on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 13th in the MLB with a .718 OPS. Jason Alexander is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Cristian Javier is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA this season. His team won their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 earned runs, 0 homers, and 3 walks with 6 strikeouts on 0 hits through 6 innings pitched against the Los Angeles Angels.

The current betting odds have the Yankees listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Astros have looked great in their games this season with their 76-63 record overall which has them right at the top of the AL West. They have looked good in their own ballpark too with their 42-31 home record this year. Meanwhile, the Yankees have looked really good in their games this season with their 77-61 record overall which has them right near the top of the AL East. They have been a good road team too with their 36-33 road record this season. The Yankees have been rolling in their games lately too, going 8-2 in their last 10 games while the Astros are only 5-5, and the Yankees also have one of their best starters on the mound here. The Yankees are going with Rodon in this one and he has looked good this season. He is 15-7 with a 3.18 ERA and hasn't been giving up many runs lately. He is coming off another great start in which he only gave up 1 earned run and the team has had a ton of success with him lately, winning 5 games in a row now with him as the starter. Javier is on the mound for the Astros in this one and he has also looked good this season. He is 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA and the team has also had success with him lately, winning 2 games in a row now with him as the starter. He is also coming off a great start in which he gave up no runs, but he has also had just 4 starts this season and has not faced many offense like the Yankees this year. The Yankees have been pitching great lately and their offense has been rolling too, they have the advantage with this pitching matchup. The best way to place a bet here is on the Yankees to win this game. 

Yankees Astros Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Thursday, September 4, 2025 (7:40 pm ET start time) is Yankees 5 Astros 1.

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New York Yankees: 260-215 (-26.3 units) on the moneyline in all games. 196-151 (-37.8 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 71-69 (-6.4 units) on the moneyline when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%). 21-11 OVER on the road with a money line of -100 to -150.

Houston Astros: 73-53 (+35.3 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or higher. 133-109 (+13 units) on the moneyline when playing against a team with a winning record. 83-68 (+9.7 units) on the moneyline vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season. 34-19 OVER vs. an AL team with a slugging percentage of .440 or better on the season.

New York Yankees:  B. Headrick (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. A. Slater (LF) Ten Day IL - Hamstring. J. Loaisiga (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Back. C. Schmidt (SP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. O. Cabrera (3B) Sixty Day IL - Ankle. J. Cousins (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. G. Cole (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Houston Astros:  J. Rooney (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Concussion / Nasal. B. Sousa (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. B. Walter (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Hader (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. I. Paredes (3B) Sixty Day IL - Hamstring. B. Rodgers (2B) Sixty Day IL - Oblique. J. Meyers (CF) Ten Day IL - Calf. Z. Dezenzo (RF) Sixty Day IL - Hand. P. Leon (RF) Sixty Day IL - Knee. R. Blanco (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. H. Wesneski (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

"I know he’s going to give me a good at-bat. Right, left-handed, whatever it may be.” - Aaron Boone on Trent Grisham after his team’s win against the Astros in their game on Tuesday.

"Just kind of left those pitches in the middle of the plate. Stuff was good early. Just a few mistakes, and if you make mistakes against that team, they're known for their power and their ability to work the count and get walks. I thought today his stuff wasn’t working out as well as his previous start.” - Joe Espada after his team’s loss against the Yankees in their game on Tuesday.

Paul Goldschmidt (R) 1B

Cody Bellinger (L) RF

Aaron Judge (R) DH

Giancarlo Stanton (R) LF

Trent Grisham (L) CF

Anthony Volpe (R) SS

Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L) 2B

José Caballero (R) 3B

Austin Wells (L) C

Jeremy Peña (R) SS

Yordan Alvarez (L) LF

Jose Altuve (R) DH

Carlos Correa (R) 3B

Jesús Sánchez (L) RF

Yainer Diaz (R) C

Victor Caratini (S) 1B

Ramón Urías (R) 2B

Taylor Trammell (L) CF

Batting Average:  Amed Rosario (.389)

Hits:  Aaron Judge (151)

Home Runs:  Aaron Judge (43)

RBI:  Aaron Judge (97)

Stolen Bases:  Jazz Chisholm (26)

Wins:  Carlos Rodón (15)

Saves:  Devin Williams (18)

ERA:  Adam Ottavino (0.00)

Batting Average:  Jake Meyers (.308)

Hits:  Jose Altuve (141)

Home Runs:  Jose Altuve (24)

RBI:  Christian Walker (74)

Stolen Bases:  Jeremy Peña (20)

Wins:  Framber Valdez (12)

Saves:  Josh Hader (28)

ERA:  Craig Kimbrel (0.00)

Managers:

New York Yankees: Aaron Boone (8th season)

Houston Astros: Joe Espada (2nd season)