New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, Preview and Odds - 09/12/2025

Game Time: 7:10 pm ET, Friday, September 12, 2025

Venue:  Fenway Park, Boston, MA

Where to Watch:  Apple TV+

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Yankees -123, Red Sox +101; Over/Under:  9 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Yankees -125, Red Sox +105; Over/Under:  9 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Yankees -125, Red Sox +105; Over/Under:  9 runs

New York Yankees:  80-65 (2nd place, AL East)

Boston Red Sox:  81-66 (3rd place, AL East)

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New York Yankees:  5-5 last 10

Boston Red Sox:  6-4 last 10

The Yankees won their 3-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays 2-1. They enter this game with an 80-65 record overall and have a road record of 37-34. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Red Sox on Friday with the series finale of their series against the Detroit Tigers still to be played on Thursday. The Yankees lost the series opener of that series on Tuesday and the 2nd game on Wednesday. Their offense ranks 1st in the MLB with a .781 OPS. Rookie pitcher Cam Schlittler is their starting pitcher on Thursday while Luis Gil is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 3-1 with a 3.31 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 1 ER, 0 HR, and 4 BB with 1 SO on 3 hits through 6 IP against the Toronto Blue Jays.

The Red Sox are entering this series off a loss and won their 3-game series against the Athletics 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with an 81-66 record overall and have a home record of 44-28. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Yankees on Friday and they have Thursday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 8th in the MLB with a .749 OPS. Rookie pitcher Payton Tolle was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Lucas Giolito is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 10-3 with a 3.38 ERA this season. His team won 4 of their last 5 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 earned runs, 0 homers, and 3 walks with 2 strikeouts on 7 hits through 5 innings pitched against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The current betting odds have the Red Sox listed as a slight underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Red Sox have looked really good in their games this season with their 81-66 record overall which has them right in the middle of the AL East and in a Wild Card spot at the moment. They have also looked great in their own ballpark this year with their 44-28 home record. Meanwhile, the Yankees have looked really good in their games this season with their 80-65 record overall which has them right near the top of the AL East and in a Wild Card spot. They have been a good road team too with their 37-34 road record this year. They haven't looked great lately though, going 5-5 in their last 10 games while the Red Sox are 6-4 and are starting to get hot again. The Red Sox are going with Giolito in this one and he has looked good this season. He is 10-3 with a 3.38 ERA and the team has had a ton of success with him this year. He is coming off another good start in which he gave up 2 earned runs, something that has been a common theme for him this year, and the team has won 4 of their last 5 games with him starting too. The Yankees are going with Gil in this one and he has looked good this year. He is 3-1 with a 3.31 ERA and hasn't been giving up many runs lately. He only gave up 1 earned run in his last start and the team has won 2 of their last 3 games with him starting too, but the bullpen hasn't looked good lately and that could be an issue. The Yankees have been giving up a ton of runs lately and their offense has cooled off too so this is a great situation for the Red Sox at home with a chance to pass the Yankees in the standings too. The best way to place a bet here is on the Red Sox to win this game. 

Yankees Red Sox Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Friday, September 12, 2025 (7:10 pm ET start time) is Red Sox 5 Yankees 1.

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New York Yankees: 263-219 (-29 units) on the moneyline in all games. 67-79 (-29.5 units) on the moneyline against division opponents. 74-73 (-9.2 units) on the moneyline when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%). 26-15 UNDER on the road vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs/game on the season.

Boston Red Sox: 75-71 (+8.4 units) on the moneyline against division opponents. 49-45 (+6.2 units) on the moneyline vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start. 81-86 (+5.8 units) on the moneyline vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season. 15-4 UNDER at home when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%).

New York Yankees:  A. Volpe (SS) Day To Day - Shoulder. B. Headrick (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. J. Loaisiga (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Back. C. Schmidt (SP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. O. Cabrera (3B) Sixty Day IL - Ankle. J. Cousins (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. G. Cole (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Boston Red Sox:  V. Grissom (2B) Sixty Day IL - Foot. R. Gonzalez (1B) Day To Day - Knee. D. May (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. J. Hicks (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. R. Anthony (RF) Ten Day IL - Oblique. M. Mayer (3B) Sixty Day IL - Wrist. R. Fitts (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Biceps. W. Abreu (RF) Ten Day IL - Calf. L. Guerrero (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. T. Houck (SP) Sixty Day IL - Flexor. H. Dobbins (SP) Sixty Day IL - ACL. L. Hendriks (RP) Sixty Day IL - Hip. J. Winckowski (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. T. Casas (1B) Sixty Day IL - Knee. K. Crawford (SP) Sixty Day IL - Knee. P. Sandoval (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“These last two nights have obviously been rough.” - Aaron Boone after his team’s loss against the Tigers in their game on Wednesday. 

“He did a good job -- good fastball and good command, great tempo. That was good to see. He was very patient throughout the process, and for him to go out there and give us a chance to win, that was awesome.” - Alex Cora after his team’s loss against the A’s in their game on Wednesday.

Austin Slater (R) LF

Aaron Judge (R) RF

Cody Bellinger (L) CF

Giancarlo Stanton (R) DH

Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L) 2B

Paul Goldschmidt (R) 1B

Ben Rice (L) C

José Caballero (R) SS

Ryan McMahon (L) 3B

Jarren Duran (L) LF

Alex Bregman (R) 3B

Nathaniel Lowe (L) 1B

Trevor Story (R) SS

Masataka Yoshida (L) DH

Nick Sogard (S) RF

David Hamilton (L) 2B

Nate Eaton (R) CF

Connor Wong (R) C

Batting Average:  Amed Rosario (.400)

Hits:  Aaron Judge (155)

Home Runs:  Aaron Judge (44)

RBI:  Aaron Judge (98)

Stolen Bases:  Jazz Chisholm (27)

Wins:  Carlos Rodón (16)

Saves:  Devin Williams (18)

ERA:  Adam Ottavino (0.00)

Batting Average:  Romy Gonzalez (.311)

Hits:  Jarren Duran (146)

Home Runs:  Trevor Story (24)

RBI:  Trevor Story (91)

Stolen Bases:  Trevor Story (28)

Wins:  Garrett Crochet (15)

Saves:  Aroldis Chapman (29)

ERA:  Nick Burdi (0.00)

Managers:

New York Yankees: Aaron Boone (8th season)

Boston Red Sox: Álex Cora (5th season)