by Rod Pearson
Thursday, Jul 17, 2025
Game Time: 7:15 pm ET, Friday, July 18, 2025
Venue: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
Where to Watch: MLB Network
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline odds: Yankees -121, Braves -101; Over/Under: 8.5 runs
Bet365: Moneyline odds: Yankees -120, Braves +100; Over/Under: 8.5 runs
BetMGM: Moneyline odds: Yankees -120, Braves +100; Over/Under: 8.5 runs
Season Record
New York Yankees: 53-43 (2nd place, AL East)
Atlanta Braves: 42-53 (4th place, NL East)
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Recent Form
New York Yankees: 5-5 last 10
Atlanta Braves: 3-7 last 10
New York Yankees vs Atlanta Braves Preview and Analysis
The Yankees are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Chicago Cubs 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 53-43 record overall and have a road record of 23-24. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Braves on Friday. Their offense ranks 1st in the MLB with a .791 OPS. Will Warren was their starting pitcher on Sunday while Max Fried is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 11-3 with a 2.43 ERA this season. His team lost 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 3 ER, 0 HR, and 3 BB with 2 SO on 6 hits through 3 IP against the Chicago Cubs.
The Braves are entering this series off a loss and won their 3-game series against the St Louis Cardinals 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 42-53 record overall and have a home record of 24-22. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Yankees on Friday. Their offense ranks 20th in the MLB with a .703 OPS. Davis Daniel was their starting pitcher on Sunday while Spencer Strider is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 3-7 with a 3.94 ERA this season. His team lost their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 3 earned runs, 1 homer, and 3 walks with 11 strikeouts on 5 hits through 6.2 innings pitched against the Athletics.
Yankees vs Braves Prediction
The current betting odds have the Yankees listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Yankees have looked really good in their games this season with their 53-43 record overall which has them right near the top of the AL East. They haven't been a great road team though with their 23-24 road record this season. Meanwhile, the Braves haven't looked good in their games this season with their 42-53 record overall which has them right near the bottom of the NL East. They have looked a lot better in their own ballpark though with their 24-22 home record. The Yankees haven't looked great lately as they are only 5-5 in their last 10 games, but they have still looked better than the Braves who are 3-7 in their last 10 games. The Yankees also have the better pitching matchup here with their ace Fried on the mound. He is 11-3 with a 2.43 ERA and hasn't been giving up many runs all year. He did give up 3 earned runs in his last start and the team has lost 2 of their last 3 games with him starting now, but that hasn't been a common theme for him and he will be looking to bounce back out of the All-Star break. The Braves are going with Strider in this one and he hasn't looked bad this season, but he is 3-7 with a 3.94 ERA. He gave up 3 earned runs in his last start which has been a bit of a common theme for him, and the team has also lost 3 games in a row with him starting. This is a great situation for the Yankees to bounce back and get hot coming out of the break. The best way to place a bet here is on the Yankees to win this game.
Yankees Braves Prediction: Our MLB Pick for Friday, July 18, 2025 (7:15 pm ET start time) is Yankees 5 Braves 2.
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MLB Betting Trends
New York Yankees: 16-22 (-13.4 units) on the moneyline against NL East opponents. 236-197 (-27 units) on the moneyline in all games. 178-138 (-37 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 35-20 UNDER when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%).
Atlanta Braves: 41-25 (+6.2 units) on the moneyline after a one run loss. 19-9 (+7 units) on the moneyline at home vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better. 37-22 (+6.5 units) on the moneyline at home vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season. 61-31 UNDER vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start.
Key Injuries
New York Yankees: C. Schmidt (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. M. Fried (SP) Day To Day - Finger. M. Leiter Jr. (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Fibular. F. Cruz (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Oblique. R. Yarbrough (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Oblique. Y. De Los Santos (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. O. Cabrera (3B) Sixty Day IL - Ankle. J. Cousins (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. L. Gil (SP) Sixty Day IL - Back. G. Cole (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.
Atlanta Braves: A. Riley (3B) Ten Day IL - Abdomen. S. Schwellenbach (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. C. Sale (SP) Sixty Day IL - Rib. A. Smith-Shawver (SP) Sixty Day IL - Calf/Elbow. R. Lopez (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. J. Jimenez (RP) Sixty Day IL - Knee.
Notable Quotes
“There’s been a lot of good. There’s obviously been two weeks where we really struggled. But we set out in Spring Training and the start of the year to get back to the playoffs and go chase after a world title. All those hopes and dreams are right there and still exist for us. A long way to go. Still got to keep getting better. But we’re in position to do what we need to do.” - Aaron Boone on his team this season.
“We did a lot of really good things today, a lot of fundamental things to help us win a game.” - Brian Snitker after his team’s win against the Cardinals in their game on Saturnday.
Starting Lineups
New York Yankees
Paul Goldschmidt (R) 1B
Cody Bellinger (L) CF
Aaron Judge (R) RF
Giancarlo Stanton (R) DH
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L) 2B
Jasson Domínguez (S) LF
Anthony Volpe (R) SS
Austin Wells (L) C
Oswald Peraza (R) 3B
Atlanta Braves
Jurickson Profar (S) LF
Matt Olson (L) 1B
Ronald Acuña Jr. (R) RF
Sean Murphy (R) DH
Drake Baldwin (L) C
Ozzie Albies (S) 2B
Nacho Alvarez Jr. (R) 3B
Michael Harris II (L) CF
Nick Allen (R) SS
Statistical Leaders
New York Yankees
Batting Average: Aaron Judge (.355)
Hits: Aaron Judge (125)
Home Runs: Aaron Judge (35)
RBI: Aaron Judge (81)
Stolen Bases: Jasson Domínguez (14)
Wins: Max Fried (11)
Saves: Devin Williams (13)
ERA: Adam Ottavino (0.00)
Atlanta Braves
Batting Average: Ronald Acuña (.323)
Hits: Austin Riley (104)
Home Runs: Matt Olson (17)
RBI: Matt Olson (61)
Stolen Bases: Michael Harris (12)
Wins: Spencer Schwellenbach (7)
Saves: Raisel Iglesias (11)
ERA: Zach Thompson (0.00)
Managers:
New York Yankees: Aaron Boone (8th season)
Atlanta Braves: Brian Snitker (10th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
