New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction, Preview and Odds - 09/06/2025

by Rod Pearson

Friday, Sep 05, 2025
Game Time: 6:40 pm ET, Saturday, September 6, 2025
Venue:  Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH
Where to Watch:  SNY, FDSOH


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Mets -126, Reds +104; Over/Under:  9 runs
Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Mets -125, Reds +105; Over/Under:  9 runs
BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Mets -125, Reds +105; Over/Under:  9 runs

Season Record

New York Mets:  75-65 (2nd place, NL East)
Cincinnati Reds:  70-70 (3rd place, NL Central)

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Recent Form
New York Mets:  6-4 last 10
Cincinnati Reds:  3-7 last 10



New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds Preview and Analysis


The Mets are entering this series off a loss and won their 3-game series against the Detroit Tigers 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 75-65 record overall and have a road record of 30-38. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Reds on Saturday with the series opener still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 4th in the MLB with a .761 OPS. David Peterson is their starting pitcher on Friday while rookie pitcher Jonah Tong is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA this season. His team won their only game this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 1 ER, 0 HR, and 0 BB with 6 SO on 6 hits through 5 IP against the Miami Marlins.

The Reds are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 70-70 record overall and have a home record of 38-33. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Mets on Saturday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 17th in the MLB with a .711 OPS. Andrew Abbott is their starting pitcher on Friday while Brady Singer is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 12-9 with a 4.08 ERA this season. His team won their last 4 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 3 earned runs, 0 homers, and 0 walks with 8 strikeouts on 5 hits through 6 innings pitched against the St Louis Cardinals.


Mets vs Reds Prediction

The current betting odds have the Mets listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Reds haven't looked great in their games this season with their 70-70 record overall which has them right in the middle of the NL Central. They have looked better in their own ballpark though with their 38-33 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Mets have looked good in their games this season with their 75-65 record overall which has them right near the top of the NL East. They haven't been a good road team though with their 30-38 road record this year. The Mets have been getting hot lately though, going 6-4 in their last 10 games and putting up a ton of runs in those. The Reds have also been in a slump lately as they are 3-7 in their last 10 games and the Mets do have the better pitching matchup here. The Mets are going with Tong in this one and this is only his 2nd career start in the MLB. He is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA and looked great in his only start though. He gave up 1 earned run in a game his team won and they have been putting up a ton of runs lately too so they will bring some run support for Tong in this one. The Reds are going with Singer in this one and he hasn't looked great this season. He is 12-9 with a 4.08 ERA and has been giving up runs all season. His team has been having success lately, winning 4 games in a row now with him on the mound, but he did give up 3 earned runs in his last start and that has been a common theme for him this year. The Reds have also been giving up a ton of runs in their games lately and that will be an issue with the Mets getting hot as they have been scoring more runs and do have one of the best offenses in the MLB. The best way to place a bet here is on the Mets to win this game.

Mets Reds Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Saturday, September 6, 2025 (6:40 pm ET start time) is Mets 6 Reds 3.
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MLB Betting Trends


New York Mets: 46-48 (-13.7 units) on the moneyline against NL Central opponents. 246-231 (-24.2 units) on the moneyline in all games. 163-118 (-10.3 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 17-8 OVER against NL Central opponents.

Cincinnati Reds: 228-235 (+6.4 units) on the moneyline in all games. 124-148 (+17 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or higher. 102-114 (+10.5 units) on the moneyline when playing against a team with a winning record. 19-9 OVER at home vs. an NL team with a slugging percentage of .430 or better on the season.

Key Injuries


New York Mets:  T. Taylor (CF) Ten Day IL - Hamstring. F. Alvarez (C) Ten Day IL - Thumb. R. Garrett (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. F. Montas Jr. (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Winker (LF) Sixty Day IL - Back. M. Kranick (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. D. Nunez (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. T. Megill (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. G. Canning (SP) Sixty Day IL - Achilles. J. Siri (CF) Sixty Day IL - Shin. D. Young (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. Minter (RP) Sixty Day IL - Lat. C. Scott (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. N. Madrigal (3B) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. D. Smith (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Cincinnati Reds:  N. Lodolo (SP) Day To Day - Illness. G. Ashcraft (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. I. Gibaut (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. T. Stephenson (C) Ten Day IL - Thumb. C. Burns (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. W. Miley (SP) Sixty Day IL - Flexor. R. Lowder (SP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. C. Spiers (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. T. Callihan (LF) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. B. Williamson (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Aguiar (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.


Notable Quotes


“He’s made some adjustments. But how can we help this guy? Because right now, we’re not doing that. When you have that type of stuff and they keep hitting it like that, something’s going on. We acquired this guy, and we believe in this guy, and I keep saying it: In order for us to get to where we want to get, we’re going to need him. This is obviously hard for him by now, and for all of us. But we’ve got to get him right.” - Carlos Mendoza after his team’s loss against the Tigers in their game on Wednesday.


“I wish we would have won tonight. We’re probably extremely fortunate that we get to play a team that’s in front of us. Saying that, we’ve got to beat them. But it’s our chance.” - Terry Francona after his team’s loss against the Blue Jays in their game on Wednesday.


Starting Lineups


New York Mets
Francisco Lindor (S) SS
Juan Soto (L) RF
Pete Alonso (R) 1B
Brandon Nimmo (L) LF
Mark Vientos (R) 3B
Jeff McNeil (L) CF
Starling Marte (R) DH
Brett Baty (L) 2B
Hayden Senger (R) C

Cincinnati Reds
TJ Friedl (L) CF
Noelvi Marte (R) RF
Elly De La Cruz (S) SS
Austin Hays (R) LF
Gavin Lux (L) DH
Spencer Steer (R) 1B
Ke'Bryan Hayes (R) 3B
Jose Trevino (R) C
Matt McLain (R) 2B

Statistical Leaders


New York Mets
Batting Average:  José Azocar (.278)
Hits:  Francisco Lindor (149)
Home Runs:  Juan Soto (37)
RBI:  Pete Alonso (113)
Stolen Bases:  Francisco Lindor (28)
Wins:  Clay Holmes (11)
Saves:  Edwin Díaz (25)
ERA:  Austin Warren (0.96)

Cincinnati Reds
Batting Average:  Austin Wynns (.400)
Hits:  Elly De La Cruz (148)
Home Runs:  Elly De La Cruz (19)
RBI:  Elly De La Cruz (78)
Stolen Bases:  Elly De La Cruz (32)
Wins:  Brady Singer (12)
Saves:  Emilio Pagán (26)
ERA:  Reiver Sanmartin (0.00)

Managers:
New York Mets: Carlos Mendoza (2nd season)
Cincinnati Reds: Terry Francona (1st season)


Rod Pearson

About the Author:

Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life.  He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years.  In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective.  Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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