New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction, Preview and Odds - 09/05/2025

Game Time: 6:40 pm ET, Friday, September 5, 2025

Venue:  Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH

Where to Watch:  SNY, FDSOH

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Mets -126, Reds +104; Over/Under:  9 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Mets -125, Reds +105; Over/Under:  9 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Mets -125, Reds +105; Over/Under:  9 runs

New York Mets:  75-65 (2nd place, NL East)

Cincinnati Reds:  70-70 (3rd place, NL Central)

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New York Mets:  6-4 last 10

Cincinnati Reds:  3-7 last 10

The Mets are entering this series off a loss and won their 3-game series against the Detroit Tigers 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 75-65 record overall and have a road record of 30-38. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Reds on Friday and they have Thursday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 4th in the MLB with a .761 OPS. Clay Holmes was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while David Peterson is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 8-5 with a 3.61 ERA this season. His team lost 5 of their last 6 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 8 ER, 0 HR, and 3 BB with 1 SO on 8 hits through 2 IP against the Miami Marlins.

The Reds are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 70-70 record overall and have a home record of 38-33. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Mets on Friday and they have Thursday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 17th in the MLB with a .711 OPS. Zack Littell was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Andrew Abbott is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 8-5 with a 2.65 ERA this season. His team lost 5 of their last 6 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 earned runs, 0 homers, and 4 walks with 7 strikeouts on 3 hits through 5 innings pitched against the St Louis Cardinals.

The current betting odds have the Reds listed as a slight underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Reds haven't looked great in their games this season with their 70-70 record overall which has them right in the middle of the NL Central. They have looked better in their own ballpark though with their 38-33 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Mets have looked good in their games this season with their 75-65 record overall which has them right near the top of the NL East. They haven't been a good road team though with their 30-38 road record this year. They have been the hotter team lately as they are 6-4 in their last 10 games while the Reds are only 3-7, but the Reds do have the better pitching matchup in this one and they can take advantage of that. Abbott is on the mound for the Reds in this one and he has looked great this season. He is 8-5 with a 2.65 ERA and he has been their ace this season. He is coming off another good start in which he gave up 2 earned runs and that has been a common theme for him this year. The team has lost 5 of their last 6 games with him starting, but they have been putting up a lot of runs lately so he is due for a win at home. The Mets are going with Peterson in this one and he has looked good this season too. He is 8-5 with a 3.61 ERA, but he has been a lot more up and down this year and hasn't looked good lately either. His team has also lost 5 of their last 6 games with him starting and he is coming off a terrible start in which he gave up 8 earned runs. Abbott is due for a win at home and the Reds can back him up with some runs here. The best way to place a bet here is on the Reds to win this game. 

Mets Reds Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Friday, September 5, 2025 (6:40 pm ET start time) is Reds 3 Mets 1.

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New York Mets: 46-48 (-13.7 units) on the moneyline against NL Central opponents. 246-231 (-24.2 units) on the moneyline in all games. 163-118 (-10.3 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 51-31 OVER on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5.

Cincinnati Reds: 228-235 (+6.4 units) on the moneyline in all games. 124-148 (+17 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or higher. 102-114 (+10.5 units) on the moneyline when playing against a team with a winning record. 19-9 OVER at home vs. an NL team with a slugging percentage of .430 or better on the season.

New York Mets:  T. Taylor (CF) Ten Day IL - Hamstring. F. Alvarez (C) Ten Day IL - Thumb. R. Garrett (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. F. Montas Jr. (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Winker (LF) Sixty Day IL - Back. M. Kranick (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. D. Nunez (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. T. Megill (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. G. Canning (SP) Sixty Day IL - Achilles. J. Siri (CF) Sixty Day IL - Shin. D. Young (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. Minter (RP) Sixty Day IL - Lat. C. Scott (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. N. Madrigal (3B) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. D. Smith (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Cincinnati Reds:  N. Lodolo (SP) Day To Day - Illness. G. Ashcraft (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. I. Gibaut (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. T. Stephenson (C) Ten Day IL - Thumb. C. Burns (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. W. Miley (SP) Sixty Day IL - Flexor. R. Lowder (SP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. C. Spiers (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. T. Callihan (LF) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. B. Williamson (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Aguiar (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“He’s made some adjustments. But how can we help this guy? Because right now, we’re not doing that. When you have that type of stuff and they keep hitting it like that, something’s going on. We acquired this guy, and we believe in this guy, and I keep saying it: In order for us to get to where we want to get, we’re going to need him. This is obviously hard for him by now, and for all of us. But we’ve got to get him right.” - Carlos Mendoza after his team’s loss against the Tigers in their game on Wednesday.

“I wish we would have won tonight. We’re probably extremely fortunate that we get to play a team that’s in front of us. Saying that, we’ve got to beat them. But it’s our chance.” - Terry Francona after his team’s loss against the Blue Jays in their game on Wednesday.

Francisco Lindor (S) SS

Juan Soto (L) RF

Pete Alonso (R) 1B

Brandon Nimmo (L) LF

Mark Vientos (R) 3B

Jeff McNeil (L) CF

Starling Marte (R) DH

Brett Baty (L) 2B

Hayden Senger (R) C

TJ Friedl (L) CF

Noelvi Marte (R) RF

Elly De La Cruz (S) SS

Austin Hays (R) LF

Gavin Lux (L) DH

Spencer Steer (R) 1B

Ke'Bryan Hayes (R) 3B

Jose Trevino (R) C

Matt McLain (R) 2B

Batting Average:  José Azocar (.278)

Hits:  Francisco Lindor (149)

Home Runs:  Juan Soto (37)

RBI:  Pete Alonso (113)

Stolen Bases:  Francisco Lindor (28)

Wins:  Clay Holmes (11)

Saves:  Edwin Díaz (25)

ERA:  Austin Warren (0.96)

Batting Average:  Austin Wynns (.400)

Hits:  Elly De La Cruz (148)

Home Runs:  Elly De La Cruz (19)

RBI:  Elly De La Cruz (78)

Stolen Bases:  Elly De La Cruz (32)

Wins:  Brady Singer (12)

Saves:  Emilio Pagán (26)

ERA:  Reiver Sanmartin (0.00)

Managers:

New York Mets: Carlos Mendoza (2nd season)

Cincinnati Reds: Terry Francona (1st season)