by Rod Pearson
Friday, Sep 26, 2025
Game Time: 7:15 pm ET, Monday, September 29, 2025
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Where to Watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Jets +2.5, Dolphins -2.5; Over/Under: 45.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Jets +3, Dolphins -3; Over/Under: 44.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Jets +2.5, Dolphins -2.5; Over/Under: 45 points
Season Record
New York Jets: 0-3 (3rd place, AFC East)
Miami Dolphins: 0-3 (4th place, AFC East)
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Recent Form
New York Jets: lost their last game on the road against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29-27.
Miami Dolphins: lost their last game on the road against the Buffalo Bills 31-21.
New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins Preview and Analysis
The Jets are entering this game with a 0-3 record overall and they have a 0-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 0-2 in their home games, 0-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29-27. Tyrod Taylor was the starting QB and he completed 26/36 passes for 197 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Tyrod Taylor led the team in rushing yards with 48. Garrett Wilson led the receivers with 84 receiving yards on 10 receptions and 1 TD. Brandon Stephens led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Quincy Williams and Harrison Phillips each led the defense in sacks with 0.5. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
The Dolphins are entering this game with a 0-3 record overall and they have a 0-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 0-1 in their home games, 0-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the Buffalo Bills 31-21. Tua Tagovailoa was the starting QB and he completed 22/34 passes for 146 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. De’Von Achane led the team in rushing yards with 62. Tyreek Hill led the receivers with 49 receiving yards on 5 receptions and 1 TD. Tyrel Dodson led the defense in that game with 11 solo tackles and 0 assisted tackles while Tyrel Dodson and Bradley Chubb each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Jets vs Dolphins Prediction
The current betting odds have the Dolphins listed as a 2.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Dolphins have looked terrible in their games this season with their 0-3 record overall which has them right near the bottom of the AFC East. They were terrible in their first 2 games and blew an opportunity at home to get their first win of the season against the Patriots. Now they are off a 31-21 loss in Buffalo, but they didn't look bad in that game and they are going to come with some more fight in this one to win their first game of the season at home. Meanwhile, the Jets have also looked terrible in their games this season with their 0-3 record overall which has them right near the bottom of the AFC East too. They were terrible in their 1 home game against the Bills, but they haven't looked bad in their other 2 games. They played a tight game with the Steelers and are now off a 29-27 loss to the Buccaneers, but they could still be without Justin Fields in this one and this offense has definitely struggled more since that 1st game of the season. The defense for the Jets hasn't been good either and as bad as the defense has been for the Dolphins, they still have a lot more talent than this Jets team, especially on offense. This should be a get right game for the Dolphins after a better showing on Thursday night. The best way to place a bet here is on the Dolphins to cover the spread in this game.
Jets Dolphins Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Monday, September 29, 2025 (7:15 pm ET start time) is Dolphins 27 Jets 13.
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NFL Betting Trends
New York Jets: 14-22 ATS in all games. 3-6 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. 2-9 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 yards/play or more. 8-4 OVER after a loss by 6 or less points. 6-3 OVER vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 7 or more passing yards/att.
Miami Dolphins: 7-1 ATS vs. poor passing teams averaging 5.7 or less passing yards/att. 8-1 ATS vs. poor teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season. 7-3 ATS vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game. 10-5 OVER in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 12-4 OVER when playing against a team with a losing record.
Key Injuries
New York Jets: J. Brownlee Jr. (CB) Injured - Ankle. J. Johnson (LB) Injured - Ankle. T. Adams (S) Injured - Hip. K. Nwangwu (RB) Injured - Hamstring. J. Reynolds (WR) Injured - Hamstring. J. Tufele (DL) Injured - Illness. J. Fields (QB) Injured - Concussion.
Miami Dolphins: S. Duck (CB) Injured - Ankle. J. Marshall Jr. (CB) Injured - Hamstring. J. Waddle (WR) Injured - Shoulder. D. Waller (TE) Injured - Hip. I. Melifonwu (S) Injured - Calf.
Notable Quotes
“There's no such thing as moral victories when it comes to us. I'm looking forward to our next challenge. We're going to go to work next week, look at the things we need to fix, and we're going to hone in on that.” - Aaron Glenn after his team’s loss against the Buccaneers in their last game.
“I’m never proud of a loss. We came here to win, and I refuse to take moral victories as the head coach of the Miami Dolphins. It wasn’t good enough, so that’s where I’m at.” - Mike McDaniel after his team’s loss against the Bills in their last game.
Starting Lineups
New York Jets
WR Wilson, Garrett
WR Lazard, Allen
WR Johnson, Tyler
TE Taylor, Mason
QB Taylor, Tyrod
RB Hall, Breece
FB Beck, Andrew
Miami Dolphins
WR Waddle, Jaylen
WR Hill, Tyreek
WR Washington, Malik
TE Hill, Julian
QB Tagovailoa, Tua
RB Achane, De'Von
FB Ingold, Alec
Statistical Leaders
New York Jets
Passing: Tyrod Taylor (253)
Rushing: Breece Hall (157)
Receiving: Garrett Wilson (229)
Touchdowns: Justin Fields (2)
Miami Dolphins
Passing: Tua Tagovailoa (575)
Rushing: De'Von Achane (147)
Receiving: Tyreek Hill (198)
Touchdowns: De'Von Achane (2)
Coaches:
New York Jets: Aaron Glenn (1st season)
Miami Dolphins: Mike McDaniel (4th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
