by Rod Pearson
Thursday, Nov 13, 2025
Game Time: 4:15 pm ET, Saturday, November 15, 2025
Venue: Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN
Where to Watch: SEC Network
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: NMSU +39.5, Tennessee -39.5; Over/Under: 61.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: NMSU +39.5, Tennessee -39.5; Over/Under: 61.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: NMSU +39.5, Tennessee -39.5; Over/Under: 61.5 points
Season Record
New Mexico State Aggies: 3-6 (1-5) (10th place, Conference USA)
Tennessee Volunteers: 6-3 (3-3) (8th place, SEC)
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New Mexico State Aggies: lost their last game at home against the Kennesaw State Owls 24-21.
Tennessee Volunteers: lost their last game at home against the Oklahoma Sooners 33-27.
New Mexico State Aggies vs Tennessee Volunteers Preview and Analysis
New Mexico State is entering this game with a 3-6 record overall and they have a 1-5 record in their conference games too. They are 3-2 in their home games, 0-4 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against Kennesaw State 24-21. Logan Fife was the starting QB and he completed 28/46 passes for 241 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Dijon Stanley led the team in rushing yards with 61 and 1 TD. Tyler King led the receivers with 49 receiving yards on 4 receptions. Quincy Davis led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while no one on the defense recorded a sack for them. Bernock Iya came away with the only 2 interceptions for them in that one.
Tennessee is entering this game with a 6-3 record overall and they have a 3-3 record in their conference games too. They are 3-2 in their home games, 2-1 in their road games, and they are also 1-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against Oklahoma 33-27. Joey Aguilar was the starting QB and he completed 29/45 passes for 393 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. DeSean Bishop led the team in rushing yards with 38. Mike Matthews led the receivers with 76 receiving yards on 3 receptions and 1 TD. Edrees Farooq led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 4 assisted tackles while Tyree Weathersby led the defense in sacks with 1. Edwin Spillman came away with the only interception for them in that one.
New Mexico State vs Tennessee Prediction
The current betting odds have Tennessee listed as a 39.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Tennessee has looked good in their games this season with their 6-3 record overall, but their 3-3 conference record has them lower in the SEC. They are off a 33-27 loss at home to Oklahoma in their last one, but they are also coming out of their bye week and will be looking to bounce back in a big way. Meanwhile, New Mexico State hasn't looked good in their games this season with their 3-6 record overall and their 1-5 conference record which has them right near the bottom of the Conference USA. They are off a 24-21 loss to Kennesaw State in their last one and they have been struggling all season in a much weaker conference. They have also been a terrible road team this year with their 0-4 road record, and they just don't have the talent that Tennessee has. Tennessee has one of the best offenses in the SEC and they have been rolling over bad teams all season. That loss to Oklahoma pretty much killed their playoff hopes too so they will be looking to take out their frustrations in this game. New Mexico State won't be able to compete in this one. The best way to place a bet here is on Tennessee to cover the spread in this game.
New Mexico State Tennessee Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, November 15, 2025 (4:15 pm ET start time) is Tennessee 56 NM State 3.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
New Mexico State Aggies: 8-14 ATS against SEC opponents. 12-31 ATS in a road game where the total is between 56.5 and 63. 10-25 ATS vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season. 30-14 OVER in a road game where the total is between 56.5 and 63. 10-5 OVER off 3 or more consecutive unders.
Tennessee Volunteers: 5-2 ATS as a favorite of 31 or more points. 6-3 ATS in a home game where the total is between 56.5 and 63. 10-3 ATS in non-conference games. 21-14 OVER in all lined games. 6-1 OVER as a favorite of 31 or more points. 10-3 OVER in non-conference games.
Key Injuries
New Mexico State Aggies: T. Martinez (LB) Questionable - Lower Body. L. Ungar (TE) Out - Undisclosed. R. Baller (DL) Out - Undisclosed. T. Gans (RB) Out - Undisclosed. J. Jackson (DL) Out - Undisclosed. J. Lydiatt (TE) Out - Undisclosed. M. Lee (OG) Out - Undisclosed. S. Shabazz (S) Out - Undisclosed. R. Burton (RB) Out - Undisclosed. C. Barron (LB) Out - Undisclosed. S. Freeman (CB) Out - Undisclosed. D. Hobbs (CB) Out - Undisclosed. A. Williams III (WR) Out - Undisclosed.
Tennessee Volunteers: T. Smith Jr. (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. R. Gibson III (CB) Out - Undisclosed. J. McCoy (CB) Out - Knee.
Notable Quotes
"When it happens multiple times... it's one of those deals where it just kind of compiles. You hurt for your guys." - Tony Sanchez after his team’s loss against Kennesaw State in their last game.
“We didn't handle (Oklahoma's defense) well enough. We gave them 16 points in the first half.” - Josh Heupel after his team’s loss against OU in their last game.
Starting Lineups
New Mexico State Aggies
WR Faupel, Donovan
WR Johnson III, PJ
WR King, TK
TE Harris, Gavin
QB Fife, Logan
RB Calloway, Kadarius
Tennessee Volunteers
WR Matthews, Mike
WR Brazzell II, Chris
WR Staley, Braylon
TE Kitselman, Miles
QB Aguilar, Joey
RB Bishop, DeSean
Statistical Leaders
New Mexico State Aggies
Passing: Logan Fife (2,072)
Rushing: Kadarius Calloway (313)
Receiving: Donovan Faupel (503)
Touchdowns: Donovan Faupel (5)
Tennessee Volunteers
Passing: Joey Aguilar (2,737)
Rushing: DeSean Bishop (690)
Receiving: Chris Brazzell II (808)
Touchdowns: DeSean Bishop (9)
Coaches:
New Mexico State Aggies: Tony Sanchez (2nd season)
Tennessee Volunteers: Josh Heupel (5th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
