by Rod Pearson
Thursday, Nov 06, 2025
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, November 9, 2025
Venue: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Where to Watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Patriots +2.5, Buccaneers -2.5; Over/Under: 48.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Patriots +2.5, Buccaneers -2.5; Over/Under: 48 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Patriots +2.5, Buccaneers -2.5; Over/Under: 48 points
Season Record
New England Patriots: 7-2 (1st place, AFC East)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6-2 (1st place, NFC South)
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Recent Form
New England Patriots: won their last game at home against the Atlanta Falcons 24-23.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: won their last game on the road against the New Orleans Saints 23-3.
New England Patriots vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Preview and Analysis
The Patriots are entering this game with a 7-2 record overall and they have a 2-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 3-2 in their home games, 4-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the Atlanta Falcons 24-23. Drake Maye was the starting QB and he completed 19/29 passes for 259 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. TreVeyon Henderson led the team in rushing yards with 55. DeMario Douglas led the receivers with 100 receiving yards on 4 receptions and 1 TD. Christian Gonzalez led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while K'Lavon Chaisson led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
The Buccaneers are entering this game with a 6-2 record overall and they have a 2-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 2-1 in their home games, 4-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the New Orleans Saints 23-3. Baker Mayfield was the starting QB and he completed 15/24 passes for 152 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Sean Tucker led the team in rushing yards with 42 and 1 TD. Tez Johnson led the receivers with 43 receiving yards on 5 receptions. Jamel Dean led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Anthony Nelson led the defense in sacks with 2. Antoine Winfield Jr. and Anthony Nelson each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.
Patriots vs Buccaneers Prediction
The current betting odds have the Patriots listed as a 2.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Patriots have looked great in their games this season with their 7-2 record overall which has them right at the top of the AFC East with one of the best records in the entire NFL. They have been a better road team this season too with their 4-0 road record. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have looked really good in their games this season with their 6-2 record overall which has them right at the top of the NFC South. They are off a 23-3 win over the Saints in their last one and now they are coming out of their bye week, but that still isn't going to help them much. They were limping into their bye week with all of the injuries that have been piling up and now they have had 2 weeks off, but they haven't really gotten any healthier with some key players still missing from this game. The Patriots are off a 24-23 win over the Falcons in their last one and that was a game that they almost blew a big lead in, but they found a way to get the win in the end and they continue to find ways to win games like good teams usually do. The Patriots have also been rolling lately with 6 wins in a row now so all of the momentum is on their side here and they can take advantage of a Buccaneers team that is still really banged up. The best way to place a bet here is on the Patriots to cover the spread in this game.
Patriots Buccaneers Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, November 9, 2025 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Patriots 23 Buccaneers 20.
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NFL Betting Trends
New England Patriots: 3-9 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3. 5-12 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 2-7 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. 8-3 OVER when playing against a team with a winning record.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 27-18 ATS in all games. 8-3 ATS after playing a division game. 9-5 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. 4-1 OVER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%).
Key Injuries
New England Patriots: C. Elliss (LB) Injured - Hip. G. Bradbury (C) Injured - Hip. R. Stevenson (RB) Injured - Toe. K. Boutte (WR) Injured - Hamstring. C. Gonzalez (CB) Injured - Concussion. M. Mapu (LB) Injured - Neck. J. Farmer (DL) Injured - Ankle.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: H. Reddick (LB) Injured - Ankle. L. David (LB) Injured - Knee. C. Godwin Jr. (WR) Injured - Fibula. B. Mayfield (QB) Injured - Knee. L. Goedeke (OT) Injured - Foot. M. Watts (LB) Injured - Hand. L. Haggard (OT) Injured - Shoulder. Z. McCollum (CB) Injured - Thumb. B. Irving (RB) Injured - Foot. J. Parrish (CB) Injured - Oblique.
Notable Quotes
“I told our offense that we were going to need one drive to win the football game. And that’s all that’s going to matter.” - Mike Vrabel after his team’s win against the Falcons in their last game.
“Wins are great. They are very hard to come by in this league. But we have to be better on offense.” - Baker Mayfield after their win against the Saints in their last game.
Starting Lineups
New England Patriots
WR Williams, Kyle
WR Hollins, Mack
WR Diggs, Stefon
TE Henry, Hunter
QB Maye, Drake
RB Henderson, TreVeyon
FB Westover, Jack
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
WR Egbuka, Emeka
WR Johnson, Kameron
WR Johnson, Tez
TE Otton, Cade
QB Mayfield, Baker
RB White, Rachaad
Statistical Leaders
New England Patriots
Passing: Drake Maye (2,285)
Rushing: TreVeyon Henderson (283)
Receiving: Stefon Diggs (508)
Touchdowns: Kayshon Boutte (5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Passing: Baker Mayfield (1,919)
Rushing: Rachaad White (287)
Receiving: Emeka Egbuka (562)
Touchdowns: Emeka Egbuka (5)
Coaches:
New England Patriots: Mike Vrabel (1st season)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Todd Bowles (4th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
