by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Oct 07, 2025
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, October 12, 2025
Venue: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Where to Watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Patriots -3.5, Saints +3.5; Over/Under: 46 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Patriots -3.5, Saints +3.5; Over/Under: 46 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Patriots -3.5, Saints +3.5; Over/Under: 46 points
Season Record
New England Patriots: 3-2 (2nd place, AFC East)
New Orleans Saints: 1-4 (4th place, NFC South)
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Recent Form
New England Patriots: won their last game on the road against the Buffalo Bills 23-20.
New Orleans Saints: won their last game at home against the New York Giants 26-14.
New England Patriots vs New Orleans Saints Preview and Analysis
The Patriots are entering this game with a 3-2 record overall and they have a 2-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-2 in their home games, 2-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the Buffalo Bills 23-20. Drake Maye was the starting QB and he completed 22/30 passes for 273 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. TreVeyon Henderson led the team in rushing yards with 24. Stefon Diggs led the receivers with 146 receiving yards on 10 receptions. Robert Spillane led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Milton Williams and Jaylinn Hawkins each led the defense in sacks with 0.5. Marcus Jones came away with the only interception for them in that one.
The Saints are entering this game with a 1-4 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-2 in their home games, 0-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the New York Giants 26-14. Spencer Rattler was the starting QB and he completed 21/31 passes for 225 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Kendre Miller led the team in rushing yards with 41. Rashid Shaheed led the receivers with 114 receiving yards on 4 receptions and 1 TD. Demario Davis led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while no one on the defense recorded a sack for them. Kool-Aid McKinstry came away with the only 2 interceptions for them in that one.
Patriots vs Saints Prediction
The current betting odds have the Patriots listed as a 3.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Patriots have looked good in their games this season with their 3-2 record overall which has them right near the top of the AFC East when it looked like the Bills were going to run away with the division. The Patriots are coming off a 23-20 win over the Bills in Buffalo and they are going to have some momentum now with 2 impressive wins in a row. Drake Maye looked great on Sunday night and this offense is starting to look better each week. Meanwhile, the Saints have looked terrible in their games this season with their 1-4 record overall which has them right at the bottom of the NFC South with one of the worst records in the entire NFL. They are off their first win of the season, beating the Giants at home 26-14, but this is still one of the worst teams in the NFL with the talent they have and they aren't going to win many games this season. They have looked better in their home games this year, putting up a much better fight in their 3 home games, but the Patriots are also undefeated on the road this year and they are in a better situation this season. The Saints got their first win of the year, but they are going to come back down to Earth against a better team. The best way to place a bet here is on the Patriots to cover the spread in this game.
Patriots Saints Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, October 12, 2025 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Patriots 24 Saints 20.
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NFL Betting Trends
New England Patriots: 24-16 ATS in dome games. 27-20 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog. 14-9 ATS against NFC South division opponents. 4-1 OVER off an upset win as a road underdog.
New Orleans Saints: 15-23 ATS in all games. 3-7 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 4-7 ATS in non-conference games. 6-3 OVER vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game.
Key Injuries
New England Patriots: A. Jennings (LB) Injured - Ankle. K. Chaisson (LB) Injured - Knee. M. Williams (DL) Injured - Ankle. M. Onwenu (OG) Injured - Shoulder. J. Hawkins (S) Injured - Hamstring. K. White (DL) Injured - Elbow. C. Barmore (DL) Injured - NIR - Other. M. Mapu (LB) Injured - Neck. J. Farmer (DL) Injured - Ankle.
New Orleans Saints: I. Yiadom (CB) Injured - Hamstring. J. Johnson (TE) Injured - Ankle. A. Kamara (RB) Injured - Ankle. T. Penning (OG) Injured - Ankle. J. Reid (S) Injured - Concussion. C. Ruiz (OG) Injured - Ankle. C. Young (DL) Injured - Calf. D. Radunz (OG) Injured - Toe. J. Ridgeway III (DL) Injured - Shoulder.
Notable Quotes
“You know this was his storybook. Coming back here first game, prime time, you could see it all week. He just loves football. He’s got a lot in the tank left, so it’s good he’s a Patriot.” - Drake Maye after their win against the Bills in their last game.
“This is a special group, resiliency to hang in there through some challenging times the first month.” - Kellen Moore after his team’s win against the Giants in their last game.
Starting Lineups
New England Patriots
WR Boutte, Kayshon
WR Hollins, Mack
WR Diggs, Stefon
TE Henry, Hunter
QB Maye, Drake
RB Stevenson, Rhamondre
FB Westover, Jack
New Orleans Saints
WR Olave, Chris
WR Cooks, Brandin
WR Shaheed, Rashid
TE Johnson, Juwan
QB Rattler, Spencer
RB Kamara, Alvin
Statistical Leaders
New England Patriots
Passing: Drake Maye (1,261)
Rushing: Rhamondre Stevenson (139)
Receiving: Stefon Diggs (359)
Touchdowns: Hunter Henry (3)
New Orleans Saints
Passing: Spencer Rattler (990)
Rushing: Alvin Kamara (283)
Receiving: Rashid Shaheed (288)
Touchdowns: Rashid Shaheed (2)
Coaches:
New England Patriots: Mike Vrabel (1st season)
New Orleans Saints: Kellen Moore (1st season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
