New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins Prediction, Preview and Odds - 09/14/2025

Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, September 14, 2025

Venue:  Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL

Where to Watch:  CBS

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Patriots +1.5, Dolphins -1.5; Over/Under:  43.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Patriots +1, Dolphins -1; Over/Under:  43 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Patriots +1.5, Dolphins -1.5; Over/Under:  43.5 points

New England Patriots:  0-1 (3rd place, AFC East)

Miami Dolphins:  0-1 (4th place, AFC East)

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New England Patriots:  lost their last game at home against the Las Vegas Raiders 20-13.

Miami Dolphins:  lost their last game on the road against the Indianapolis Colts 33-8.

The Patriots are entering this game with a 0-1 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 0-1 in their home games, 0-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against the Las Vegas Raiders 20-13. Drake Maye was the starting QB and he completed 30/46 passes for 287 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. TreVeyon Henderson led the team in rushing yards with 27. Kayshon Boutte led the receivers with 103 receiving yards on 6 receptions. Craig Woodson and Christian Elliss each led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Harold Landry III led the defense in sacks with 2.5. Jaylinn Hawkins came away with the only interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

The Dolphins are entering this game with a 0-1 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 0-0 in their home games, 0-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the Indianapolis Colts 33-8. Tua Tagovailoa was the starting QB and he completed 14/23 passes for 114 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. De’Von Achane led the team in rushing yards with 55. Tyreek Hill led the receivers with 40 receiving yards on 4 receptions. Tyrel Dodson led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 7 assisted tackles while Bradley Chubb led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have the Patriots listed as a 1.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Patriots have a 0-1 record this season and they didn't look great in their season opener, but they weren't bad either. They lost at home to the Raiders 20-13, but the Raiders look like a much improved team this season with the changes they have made. The Patriots were also able to stay in that game for most of the time and they have a lot of exciting young players on offense too. Vrabel is also a really good hire for them as he is a solid head coach that is turning the team in the right direction. Meanwhile, the Dolphins also have a 0-1 record this season, but they looked terrible in their season opener. They were on the road against the Colts and lost 33-8. They were never really in that game at all and the offense looked terrible with Tua turning the ball over a lot and making bad decisions on the field. The defense looked terrible too, letting Daniel Jones have his way with them in his 1st ever start as a Colt. The Dolphins usually play better at home, but they look like a disaster this season in multiple areas and this could finally be the season where everything blows up in Mike McDaniel's face. The Patriots are in a better situation here their 1st season with Vrabel and they looked a lot better in week 1 too. The best way to place a bet here is on the Patriots to cover the spread in this game. 

Patriots Dolphins Prediction:  Our NFL Pick for Sunday, September 14, 2025 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Patriots 16 Dolphins 13.

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New England Patriots: 12-21 ATS in all games. 2-8 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3. 1-10 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 9-2 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3. 3-0 UNDER off an upset loss as a favorite.

Miami Dolphins: 13-7 ATS as a favorite. 10-18 ATS at home in the first two weeks of the season. 12-6 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3. 6-2 UNDER after allowing 30 points or more last game. 4-1 UNDER in the first two weeks of the season.

New England Patriots:  M. Moses (OT) Injured - Foot. H. Landry III (LB) Injured - Foot. C. Elliss (LB) Injured - Shoulder. K. White (DL) Injured - Illness. K. Boutte (WR) Injured - Shoulder. C. Gonzalez (CB) Injured - Hamstring. M. Mapu (LB) Injured - Neck. C. Woods (CB) Injured - Groin.

Miami Dolphins:  S. Duck (CB) Injured - Ankle. A. Jackson (OG) Injured - Toe. B. Jones (DL) Injured - Oblique. J. Waddle (WR) Injured - Shoulder. D. Waller (TE) Injured - Hip. J. Wright (RB) Injured - Knee. E. Bonner (CB) Injured - Hamstring. A. Davis (S) Injured - Knee.

“We have to be more balanced.” - Mike Vrabel after his team’s loss against the Raiders in their last game. 

“When you lose the turnover game (minus-3), you turn the ball over on downs, you run into the kicker, you have 12 guys in the huddle, and you only have 20 minutes with the ball in your possession, that’s a formula for failure and nothing else. We have one direction to go from here —and it’s the opposite direction of what this effort produced.” - Mike McDaniel after his team’s loss against the Colts in their last game. 

WR Boutte, Kayshon

WR Diggs, Stefon

WR Douglas, DeMario

TE Henry, Hunter

QB Maye, Drake

RB Stevenson, Rhamondre

FB Westover, Jack

WR Waddle, Jaylen

WR Hill, Tyreek

WR Washington, Malik

TE Waller, Darren

QB Tagovailoa, Tua

RB Achane, De'Von

FB Ingold, Alec

Passing: D. Maye (287)

Rushing: T. Henderson (27)

Receiving: K. Boutte (103)

Touchdowns: D. Douglas (1)

Passing: T. Tagovailoa (114)

Rushing: D. Achane (55)

Receiving: T. Hill (40)

Touchdowns: D. Achane (1)

Coaches:

New England Patriots: Mike Vrabel (1st season)

Miami Dolphins: Mike McDaniel (4th season)