by Rod Pearson
Thursday, Oct 02, 2025
Game Time: 8:20 pm ET, Sunday, October 5, 2025
Venue: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Where to Watch: NBC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Patriots +8.5, Bills -8.5; Over/Under: 49.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Patriots +8, Bills -8; Over/Under: 48.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Patriots +8, Bills -8; Over/Under: 49.5 points
Season Record
New England Patriots: 2-2 (2nd place, AFC East)
Buffalo Bills: 4-0 (1st place, AFC East)
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Recent Form
New England Patriots: won their last game at home against the Carolina Panthers 42-13.
Buffalo Bills: won their last game at home against the New Orleans Saints 31-19.
New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Preview and Analysis
The Patriots are entering this game with a 2-2 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-2 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the Carolina Panthers 42-13. Drake Maye was the starting QB and he completed 14/17 passes for 203 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Rhamondre Stevenson led the team in rushing yards with 38. Stefon Diggs led the receivers with 101 receiving yards on 6 receptions. Jack Gibbens led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while K'Lavon Chaisson led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
The Bills are entering this game with a 4-0 record overall and they have a 2-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 3-0 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the New Orleans Saints 31-19. Josh Allen was the starting QB and he completed 16/22 passes for 209 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. James Cook led the team in rushing yards with 117 and 1 TD. Khalil Shakir led the receivers with 69 receiving yards on 5 receptions and 1 TD. Tre'Davious White led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 0 assisted tackles while A.J. Epenesa, Joey Bosa, and DaQuan Jones each led the defense in sacks with 1. Cole Bishop came away with the only interception for them in that one.
Patriots vs Bills Prediction
The current betting odds have the Bills listed as an 8.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Bills have looked great in their games this season with their 4-0 record overall which has them right at the top of the AFC East as one of the only undefeated teams left in the NFL. They are also 2-0 in the division and 3-0 in their home games this season. They are off a 31-19 win over the Saints in their last one and other than their comeback win in week 1 against the Ravens, they haven't really played in any close games. Meanwhile, the Patriots haven't looked great in their games this season with their 2-2 record overall. They are off a big 42-13 win over the Panthers in their last one and their offense looked great, but that hasn't been a common theme for them this season. Their 2 wins were both against bad teams, beating the Dolphins and the Panthers, but they also have a loss to the Raiders and haven't really played any good teams yet. The Patriots are heading in the right direction under Mike Vrabel, but the Bills still have a lot more talent and will be looking to put on a show at home against a divisional opponent in prime time. The best way to place a bet here is on the Bills to cover the spread in this game.
Patriots Bills Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, October 5, 2025 (8:20 pm ET start time) is Bills 35 Patriots 13.
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NFL Betting Trends
New England Patriots: 14-22 ATS in all games. 1-4 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game. 10-16 ATS in games played on turf. 14-6 OVER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 6-1 OVER vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. 8-2 OVER when playing against a team with a winning record.
Buffalo Bills: 8-1 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game. 8-4 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 yards/play or more. 6-2 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. 6-1 OVER in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5. 4-0 OVER after a 2 game home stand.
Key Injuries
New England Patriots: J. Tavai (LB) Injured - Calf. K. Chaisson (LB) Injured - Knee. M. Williams (DL) Injured - Ankle. M. Onwenu (OG) Injured - Shoulder. J. Hawkins (S) Injured - Hamstring. C. Barmore (DL) Injured - NIR. M. Mapu (LB) Injured - Neck. J. Wilson (C) Injured - Ankle. W. Campbell (OT) Injured - Shoulder.
Buffalo Bills: S. Brown (OT) Injured - Calf. J. Hawes (TE) Injured - Ankle. M. Milano (LB) Injured - Pectoral. E. Oliver (DL) Injured - Ankle. D. Williams (LB) Injured - Knee.
Notable Quotes
"When we don’t beat ourselves and we take care of the football and we play complementary football ... it can look like something." - Mike Vrabel after his team’s win against the Panthers in their last game.
“We weren’t doing ourselves many favors. A couple of boneheaded penalties, boneheaded mistakes. Throwing a pick doesn’t help.” - Josh Allen after their win against the Saints in their last game.
Starting Lineups
New England Patriots
WR Boutte, Kayshon
WR Hollins, Mack
WR Diggs, Stefon
TE Henry, Hunter
QB Maye, Drake
RB Henderson, TreVeyon
FB Westover, Jack
Buffalo Bills
WR Palmer, Joshua
WR Coleman, Keon
WR Shakir, Khalil
TE Kincaid, Dalton
QB Allen, Josh
RB Cook, James
FB Gilliam, Reggie
Statistical Leaders
New England Patriots
Passing: Drake Maye (988)
Rushing: Rhamondre Stevenson (125)
Receiving: Stefon Diggs (213)
Touchdowns: Hunter Henry (3)
Buffalo Bills
Passing: Josh Allen (964)
Rushing: James Cook (401)
Receiving: Keon Coleman (203)
Touchdowns: James Cook (5)
Coaches:
New England Patriots: Mike Vrabel (1st season)
Buffalo Bills: Sean McDermott (9th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
