by Al McMordie
Tuesday, Aug 26, 2025The NCAA Football season is kicking off this August and the usual suspects are atop the rankings. Let's take a look at the current odds to win the National Championship (courtesy of FanDuel).
Texas Longhorns +600
Ohio State Buckeyes +600
Georgia Bulldogs +700
Penn State Nittany Lions +800
Oregon Ducks +800
Notre Dame Fighting Irish +1300
Alabama Crimson Tide +1300
Clemson Tigers +1400
LSU Tigers +1900
Mississippi Rebels +2500
Michigan Wolverines +2800
Tennessee Volunteers +3300
I like Penn State (at +800 odds) to win the 2025-26 National Championship. The Nittany Lions have not won the title since 1986 but have the elite returning talent to break through this season. The Nitts' offense returns most of the key pieces from last season. QB Drew Allar, who threw for over 3500 yards last season, will headline a backfield, which also includes the top running back tandem of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Last year, PSU's RB duo combined for over 2000 rushing yards, and they'll run behind an offensive line which won the Joe Moore Award in 2024, given to the best unit. Among Allar's WR targets this season will be Troy transfer Devonte Ross, who will add explosive speed on the outside. Penn State's defense, which ranked among the Top 10 in efficiency last season, added a key piece in defensive coordinator Jim Knowles. Last year, Knowles was the DC for the title-winning Buckeyes, but PSU poached him from its Big 10 rival. With talented edge rusher Dani Dennis-Sutton, safety Zakee Wheatley and defensive tackle Zane Durant, the Nitts will excel once again on defense.
Importantly, Penn State's schedule is soft, and conducive to earning a Top-4 seed, and a bye into the quarterfinals. The Nittany Lions will face non-conference foes Nevada, Florida International and Villanova at home before welcoming #7-ranked Oregon to Happy Valley on September 27. Penn State will also face two other ranked opponents this season. They will travel to #3-ranked Ohio State on November 1, and will match up against #20-ranked Indiana at home on November 8. Absent from the Nittany Lions' schedule this season are teams like #12-ranked Illinois and #14-ranked Michigan, as well as perennial powers like USC and Washington. The one knock against James Franklin's teams is that they have not stepped up when playing superior opposition. Indeed, Penn State is just 6-26 SU and 13-18-1 ATS as an underdog since Franklin took over as head coach in 2014. And the Nittany Lions are 0-10 SU and 2-8 ATS their last 10 in the underdog role! But it is also true that Penn State has been dominant as a home favorite, priced from -1 to -23.5 points, as it's 43-4 SU and 33-11-3 ATS since Sept 15, 2012. That bodes well for PSU in its home games vs. Oregon and Indiana, as well as any potential home playoff game down the road.
Take Penn State at 8-1 odds to win the 2025-26 National Championship.
Good luck, as always,
Al McMordie
Texas Longhorns +600
Ohio State Buckeyes +600
Georgia Bulldogs +700
Penn State Nittany Lions +800
Oregon Ducks +800
Notre Dame Fighting Irish +1300
Alabama Crimson Tide +1300
Clemson Tigers +1400
LSU Tigers +1900
Mississippi Rebels +2500
Michigan Wolverines +2800
Tennessee Volunteers +3300
I like Penn State (at +800 odds) to win the 2025-26 National Championship. The Nittany Lions have not won the title since 1986 but have the elite returning talent to break through this season. The Nitts' offense returns most of the key pieces from last season. QB Drew Allar, who threw for over 3500 yards last season, will headline a backfield, which also includes the top running back tandem of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Last year, PSU's RB duo combined for over 2000 rushing yards, and they'll run behind an offensive line which won the Joe Moore Award in 2024, given to the best unit. Among Allar's WR targets this season will be Troy transfer Devonte Ross, who will add explosive speed on the outside. Penn State's defense, which ranked among the Top 10 in efficiency last season, added a key piece in defensive coordinator Jim Knowles. Last year, Knowles was the DC for the title-winning Buckeyes, but PSU poached him from its Big 10 rival. With talented edge rusher Dani Dennis-Sutton, safety Zakee Wheatley and defensive tackle Zane Durant, the Nitts will excel once again on defense.
Importantly, Penn State's schedule is soft, and conducive to earning a Top-4 seed, and a bye into the quarterfinals. The Nittany Lions will face non-conference foes Nevada, Florida International and Villanova at home before welcoming #7-ranked Oregon to Happy Valley on September 27. Penn State will also face two other ranked opponents this season. They will travel to #3-ranked Ohio State on November 1, and will match up against #20-ranked Indiana at home on November 8. Absent from the Nittany Lions' schedule this season are teams like #12-ranked Illinois and #14-ranked Michigan, as well as perennial powers like USC and Washington. The one knock against James Franklin's teams is that they have not stepped up when playing superior opposition. Indeed, Penn State is just 6-26 SU and 13-18-1 ATS as an underdog since Franklin took over as head coach in 2014. And the Nittany Lions are 0-10 SU and 2-8 ATS their last 10 in the underdog role! But it is also true that Penn State has been dominant as a home favorite, priced from -1 to -23.5 points, as it's 43-4 SU and 33-11-3 ATS since Sept 15, 2012. That bodes well for PSU in its home games vs. Oregon and Indiana, as well as any potential home playoff game down the road.
Take Penn State at 8-1 odds to win the 2025-26 National Championship.
Good luck, as always,
Al McMordie
