by Al McMordie
Friday, Sep 05, 2025The 2025 NCAA Football season got off to a rousing start last week, as four Top 10 teams (Texas, Clemson, Notre Dame, Alabama) went down to defeat. Three of those four teams played other Top 10 teams, so the results were not altogether surprising. Only Alabama's loss to then-unranked Florida State raised an eyebrow.
This week, there is only one Top 25 match-up. And that will take place in Norman, Oklahoma, where the Oklahoma Sooners will host the Michigan Wolverines. But even though there are less marquee games on the schedule, there are still nice betting situations.
One of the things I like to do early in College Football is play on certain home teams off big wins. Indeed, home teams that won in Week 1, and scored more than 42 points in that victory, have done well in Week 2. Since 1980, they're 219-174-7 ATS (55.7%).
But there are two additional tighteners that improve our numbers. The first thing we want to do is eliminate Conference games from our set. That moves our system from 219-174-7 to 185-143-4 (56.4%). Then, we also want to eliminate games where our opponent is playing with revenge. With that added fact, our system improves to 152-110-3 ATS (58.0%).
Our NCAA System of the Week is to play on any home team in its 2nd game, if it scored more than 42 points in a Week 1 victory, and is playing a non-conference foe which does not have revenge.
This week, there are 10 games:
Louisville -15.5
Penn State -42
Texas Tech -48.5
Pittsburgh -22
Duke +2.5
Missouri -6.5
Oregon -28
Florida -18
USC -29
BYU -23
Good luck, as always,
Al McMordie
This week, there is only one Top 25 match-up. And that will take place in Norman, Oklahoma, where the Oklahoma Sooners will host the Michigan Wolverines. But even though there are less marquee games on the schedule, there are still nice betting situations.
One of the things I like to do early in College Football is play on certain home teams off big wins. Indeed, home teams that won in Week 1, and scored more than 42 points in that victory, have done well in Week 2. Since 1980, they're 219-174-7 ATS (55.7%).
But there are two additional tighteners that improve our numbers. The first thing we want to do is eliminate Conference games from our set. That moves our system from 219-174-7 to 185-143-4 (56.4%). Then, we also want to eliminate games where our opponent is playing with revenge. With that added fact, our system improves to 152-110-3 ATS (58.0%).
Our NCAA System of the Week is to play on any home team in its 2nd game, if it scored more than 42 points in a Week 1 victory, and is playing a non-conference foe which does not have revenge.
This week, there are 10 games:
Louisville -15.5
Penn State -42
Texas Tech -48.5
Pittsburgh -22
Duke +2.5
Missouri -6.5
Oregon -28
Florida -18
USC -29
BYU -23
Good luck, as always,
Al McMordie
