by Kyle Hunter
Thursday, Oct 23, 2025If you bet NBA totals early on, it has been all about the over thus far. The over is 12-2 so far on the season. The over is 178-149 in the last 327 in the NBA in game one for both teams.
The trend has been slightly to the over in game one in general in the last 15-20 years, and this year it has been even more that way.
What about games #2 through #6 though? We are coming up on those games, and I wanted to see in the last 20 years which way those have trended.
For simplicity of the query, the following numbers are for games #2-games #6 for the home team.
The under is 797-687 (53.7% unders) in game 2-game 6. The under is an impressive 56.3% when the game is a divisional contest. If the home team is the favorite, the under is 530-448 (54.2% unders).
What does it mean for this year? This isn’t to say that NBA games will immediately just turn into a bunch of unders in the next week. I do believe though that as adjustments are made based on the very high scoring games to start the season, there will be value to be found on the under. The public likes to bet overs, and the numbers will start to run up on these NBA totals. How soon will they hit their peak? That’s the million dollar question.
The shooting percentages were quite high in the first 14 games of the NBA season. The average pace was up a bit as well. Let’s be on the watch for the betting marketplace running these totals numbers up. In the near term, if you like the over I would bet it early. If you like the under I would wait and bet it late.
