by Al McMordie
Thursday, Oct 15, 2026The NBA season starts this week, and it will be hard-pressed to reward the fans with a Playoffs as memorable as last year. The Knicks and Spurs were both terrific stories. San Antonio was 66-1 to win the title at the start of last season, yet defeated juggernaut Oklahoma City in seven games to reach the Finals. And the Knicks won their first championship in 53 years to send their fanbase into delirium.
This season, there are many aspirants to the title. Let's take a look at the current odds (courtesy of Hard Rock Sportsbook) of the Top 16 teams:
Thunder: +275
Spurs: +275
76ers: +750
Knicks: +900
Celtics: +1300
Cavaliers: +2500
Pistons: +2500
Nuggets: +2500
Timberwolves: +2500
Raptors: +2500
Heat: +3000
Lakers: +3000
Pacers: +4000
Rockets: +5000
Warriors: +6000
Trail Blazers: +7500
In the Western Conference, there is a clear separation between the Top 2 teams (Thunder, Spurs) and the rest, as the odds for both the Nuggets and Timberwolves are almost 10x that of the Thunder and Spurs. In the East, it is projected to be more competitive, with the 76ers, Knicks, Celtics, Cavaliers, Pistons and Raptors being the leading contenders.
I believe the oddsmakers are spot-on, and rate the Spurs and Thunder heads-and-shoulders above the rest of the league. I favor the Spurs for one reason: they've dominated the Thunder in head-to-head match-ups. Last season, San Antonio and Oklahoma City met 12 times. The Spurs won eight of the 12, including Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals on OKC's home court. Overall, San Antonio won by an average of 4.33 ppg. And the Spurs' Victor Wembanyama completely overwhelmed his big-man counterpart, OKC's Chet Holmgren. Wemby averaged 23.6 ppg, 10.2 rpg, 2.7 apg, and 2.1 blocks. Meanwhile, Holmgren shrunk from the competition, and averaged just 14.9 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 1.3 apg and 1.2 blocks -- all below his regular season averages. It got so bad that there was a thought in the offseason among fans that OKC should move on from Holmgren. GM Sam Presti went against that grain of thought, and publicly supported Holmgren in the press. But he also drafted big man, Aday Mara, with the #12 pick in the first round. The Thunder also added sharpshooter Bennett Stirtz in the Draft, but lost some depth when Luguentz Dort and Aaron Wiggins were traded to the Atlanta Hawks, and Isaiah Joe was traded to the Detroit Pistons. The Spurs made minimal moves, with the splashiest being the acquisition of Tobias Harris in Free Agency. They also drafted Tarris Reed Jr., Ja'Kobi Gillespie and Jayden Quaintance (who is coming off an injury, and not expected to contribute this season).
Last season, the Spurs failed to execute late in the NBA Finals games vs. the Knicks. The Spurs had double-digit leads in all five games, but the Knicks' Jalen Brunson was clutch in the late stages. It was a valuable learning experience for the young Spurs, who were making their first Playoff run together. I expect them to take another leap forward this year, and go all the way. Take San Antonio at +275 (at Hard Rock Sportsbook) to win the NBA Championship.
Good luck, as always,
Al McMordie
This season, there are many aspirants to the title. Let's take a look at the current odds (courtesy of Hard Rock Sportsbook) of the Top 16 teams:
Thunder: +275
Spurs: +275
76ers: +750
Knicks: +900
Celtics: +1300
Cavaliers: +2500
Pistons: +2500
Nuggets: +2500
Timberwolves: +2500
Raptors: +2500
Heat: +3000
Lakers: +3000
Pacers: +4000
Rockets: +5000
Warriors: +6000
Trail Blazers: +7500
In the Western Conference, there is a clear separation between the Top 2 teams (Thunder, Spurs) and the rest, as the odds for both the Nuggets and Timberwolves are almost 10x that of the Thunder and Spurs. In the East, it is projected to be more competitive, with the 76ers, Knicks, Celtics, Cavaliers, Pistons and Raptors being the leading contenders.
I believe the oddsmakers are spot-on, and rate the Spurs and Thunder heads-and-shoulders above the rest of the league. I favor the Spurs for one reason: they've dominated the Thunder in head-to-head match-ups. Last season, San Antonio and Oklahoma City met 12 times. The Spurs won eight of the 12, including Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals on OKC's home court. Overall, San Antonio won by an average of 4.33 ppg. And the Spurs' Victor Wembanyama completely overwhelmed his big-man counterpart, OKC's Chet Holmgren. Wemby averaged 23.6 ppg, 10.2 rpg, 2.7 apg, and 2.1 blocks. Meanwhile, Holmgren shrunk from the competition, and averaged just 14.9 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 1.3 apg and 1.2 blocks -- all below his regular season averages. It got so bad that there was a thought in the offseason among fans that OKC should move on from Holmgren. GM Sam Presti went against that grain of thought, and publicly supported Holmgren in the press. But he also drafted big man, Aday Mara, with the #12 pick in the first round. The Thunder also added sharpshooter Bennett Stirtz in the Draft, but lost some depth when Luguentz Dort and Aaron Wiggins were traded to the Atlanta Hawks, and Isaiah Joe was traded to the Detroit Pistons. The Spurs made minimal moves, with the splashiest being the acquisition of Tobias Harris in Free Agency. They also drafted Tarris Reed Jr., Ja'Kobi Gillespie and Jayden Quaintance (who is coming off an injury, and not expected to contribute this season).
Last season, the Spurs failed to execute late in the NBA Finals games vs. the Knicks. The Spurs had double-digit leads in all five games, but the Knicks' Jalen Brunson was clutch in the late stages. It was a valuable learning experience for the young Spurs, who were making their first Playoff run together. I expect them to take another leap forward this year, and go all the way. Take San Antonio at +275 (at Hard Rock Sportsbook) to win the NBA Championship.
Good luck, as always,
Al McMordie
