NBA Champion Based on Efficiency Stats

By – ASA

So, you’re thinking about a future wager on the NBA Championship and you’re not sure who to take? We can help you with some proven statistics that may accurately predict who this year’s Champion may be and rule out the most obvious media darling pretenders.

The backbone of this research is centered around efficiency ratings/rankings compiled through the regular season and is a tool I first discovered in the early 2000’s. Since then, I have seen several variations of my original work from other experts in the field, but here is the authentic version.

The average overall efficiency rating this season in the NBA was 1.160 points scored/allowed per possession. The Denver Nuggets were the most efficient offense in the NBA at 1.226 points per possession while the OKC Thunder held the best defensive efficiency rating in the league of 1.078 points allowed per/possession.  If past history tells us anything, these numbers can be extremely useful in predicting this year’s eventual NBA Champion.

This trend started in 2008-09 when the Finals featured the LA Lakers with head coach Phil Jackson and HOF’er Kobe Bryant, facing the Orlando Magic and a young Dwight Howard. The Lakers won that Finals series in dominating fashion, 4 games to 1.  The Lakers finished the regular season ranked 3rd in offensive efficiency ratings (OEFF) and 6th in defensive efficiency (DEFF). Orlando had efficiency numbers that ranked them 12th in OEFF and 1st in DEFF. This was the beginning of the “efficiency” NBA Champions.

Below are the NBA Finals Champions and their overall efficiency rankings for the past 15 Championships.

NBA CHAMPIONS FROM 2008 on and OEFF/DEFF regular season efficiency rankings:

2008-09 LA Lakers (OEFF = 3rd, DEFF = 6th)

2009-10 LA Lakers (OEFF = 11th, DEFF = 4th)

2010-11 Dallas Mavericks (OEFF = 8th, DEFF = 7th)

2011-12 Miami Heat (OEFF = 8th, DEFF = 4th)

2012-13 Miami Heat (OEFF = 1st, DEFF = 9th)

2013-14 San Antonio Spurs (OEFF = 7th, DEFF = 3rd)

2014-15 Golden State Warriors (OEFF = 2nd, DEFF = 1st)

2015-16 Cleveland Cavaliers (OEFF = 3rd, DEFF = 10th)

2016-17 Golden State Warriors (OEFF = 1st, DEFF = 2nd)

2017-18 Golden State Warriors (OEFF = 3rd, DEFF = 11th) 

2018-19 Toronto Raptors (OEFF = 5th, DEFF = 5th)

2019-20 LA Lakers Covid (OEFF = 11th, DEFF = 3rd)

2020-21 Milwaukee Bucks (OEFF = 6th, DEFF = 10th)

2021-22 Golden State Warriors (OEFF = 16th, DEFF = 2nd)

2022-23 Denver Nuggets (OEFF = 5th, DEFF = 13th)

2023-24 Boston Celtics (OEFF = 1st, DEFF = 3rd)

2024-25 Oklahoma City Thunder (OEFF = 3rd, DEFF = 1st)

2025-26 - ?

EFFICIENCY RATINGS MATTER

You can see for yourself that there have only been two teams that have won a Championship in the last seventeen years that had an (offensive efficiency) OEFF or (defensive efficiency) DEFF NOT in the top 11 for that season. It happened with the Warriors in 21-22 and Nuggets the following season 2022-23. Every team that has won a Championship in the past 17 Finals has specifically had a Defensive Efficiency ranking in the top 13 at the end of the regular season. 

Using this model (top 11 OEFF and top 13 in DEFF) to predict this year’s Champion we can eliminate everyone but the following teams: Celtics, Thunder, Knicks, Spurs, Rockets, Pistons and surprisingly, the Hornets. Minnesota was close to being a qualifier with the 12th rated OEFF and the 8th best DEFF rating. One team we didn’t mention for the Nuggets. The interesting aspect for Denver is that they have the 7th best efficiency differential overall at +5.2 as a result of their offense being so good this season. 

2025-26 Regular Season Efficiency Rankings for the Math Model “Contenders”

Boston Celtics: OEFF 2nd, DEFF 4th

Oklahoma City Thunder: OEFF 7th, DEFF 1st

San Antonio Spurs: OEFF 4th, DEFF 3rd

Houston Rockets: OEFF 8th, DEFF 6th

Detroit Pistons: OEFF 10th, DEFF 2nd

NY Knicks: OEFF 3rd, DEFF 7th

Charlotte Hornets, 5th, DEFF 12th  

Whoever you decide to bet on to win it all this season you may want to consider a closer look at the OEFF/DEFF teams mentioned above. 

Be sure to check out our Finals predictions and longshots in other articles here on this site.