NBA Basketball: Golden State Warriors VS Los Angeles Lakers Pick and Predictions 02/23/2023

Game: 10:00 PM ET,  Thursday, February 23rd, 2023

Venue:  Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, California

TV:  TNT

Warriors: 29-29, 9th place Western Conference

Lakers: 27-32, 13th place Western Conference

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Lakers -4.5, O/U 238.5

PointsBet: Point Spread: Lakers -4.5, O/U 238.5

Fanduel: Point Spread:  Lakers -4.5, O/U 238

Warriors: PG Jordan Poole, SG Klay Thompson, SF Andrew Wiggins, PF Draymond Green, C Kevon Looney

Lakers: PG D’Angelo Russell, SG Malik Beasley, SF LeBron James (day to day), PF Jarred Vanderbilt, C Anthony Davis

An NBA Western Conference battle of two teams that are recently great but currently struggling.  The very big problem for teams that are underperforming is that they must eventually go on a winning streak OR all is lost.  The problem being is that two teams desperate for wins will end up playing each other and one will be sorely disappointed.  Another problem BOTH these teams face is the uncertainty of their best player actually playing.  For the Warriors, Steph Curry has been out and will take a bit longer to return.  For the Lakers, LeBron James has missed some recent games going into the all-star game… then jammed his fingers on the rim during the all-star game… and that may keep him out a few more games (may, might).  The Warriors are in 9th place and the Lakers are in 13th place… but they are really only separated by 2 ½ games. In fact the whole Western Conference from 13th up to 5th is bunched so tightly that we have no idea who will wind up where 22 games from now?...  The great betting opportunity here is in looking at the numbers for the Warriors while guessing at the potential of a Lakers team with a TON of new players that haven’t fully settled in yet.

The Golden State Warriors made some small moves during the NBA trade deadline that did not affect the Starting five much… It did however save them some money on their long term luxury tax bill.  Their obvious second move is to offer PF Draymond Green much smaller money in his extension and he’ll either take it or walk?... Both results would be fine with the Warriors.  Leading up to the All-Star break the Warriors had won just 5 of their last 10 games.  They lost their last game to the Los Angeles Clippers 134-124 for a loss ATS (as predicted here). In that loss they got 28 points from PG Jordan Poole, 18 points from SG Klay Thompson, and 16 points from bench forward Jonathan Kuminga (the guy expected to take Draymond’s job). Four other Warriors scored in double figures highlighting a fine offensive night.  The drastic problem was the defense… They gave up 134 points to the Clippers who are only 27th in the league in scoring.

The Los Angeles Lakers need a winning streak to start as soon as possible… They have to make up lots of ground in the standings to just make a “Play In Game”.  They can not afford to lose games to the teams that sit in the handful of spots directly above them.. Losing games like this one has a double whammy effect… It not only gives the Lakers yet another loss… It bolsters a team they have to get ahead of!  Leading up to the All-Star Break the Lakers had won only 4 of their last 10 games.  They won their last game against the New Orleans Pelicans (extra sad for the Pelicans since they get the Lakers draft pick this season) 120-102.  They did it with LeBron James playing.  In the win the Lakers got a big 28 points & 10 rebounds from C Anthony Davis, 21 points & 7 assists from new guy PG D’Angelo Russell, and 21 points, 6 rebounds, and 6 assists from PF LeBron James.. No Lakers played more than 30 minutes.

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The Warriors are 2nd in scoring with 118.6 points per game, 14th in rebounds with 43.7 per game. On defense they rank 27th while allowing 118.5 points per game.  Defense is the crux of their problem this season… When they won Championships (as recently as LAST YEAR) they were always top-five on defense EVEN WITH STEPH CURRY ON THE FLOOR.  If they can find the needed defense through Gary Payton II or maybe Moody or Kuminga step UP?  THe winning will start.

The Lakers are 7th in scoring with 117 points per game, and 5th in rebounds with 45.3 per game. On defense they rank 26th in defense of scoring with 118.2 points allowed per game. The Lakers have not been good at defense either?... BUT we actually DO NOT KNOW since their defensive numbers were built with 60% different starters and a frequently injured C Anthony Davis.  We do not know what Vanderbilt, Russell, and Beasley will bring on the defensive end for the next 22 games?

Our prediction for Thursday, February 23rd is…. Warriors 125 - Lakers 118

Bet on the Warriors.  The Warriors are simply better at playing as a team… also while facing the Warriors D’Angelo Russell has shown a tendency to be drawn into a shootout instead of making the best possible play.  Plus if LeBron does not play?... The Lakers are not a team that is ready to win.  Word is the jammed fingers and the stiff knee will make him a Day of decision… since he was VERY critical of his head coach for playing him too much… You can expect the “kid gloves” treatment.

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(will update)

Lakers: PF Rui Hachimura.  Well that didn’t take long.  Rui,  the former Gonzaga star and mid-level lottery pick, spent 4 seasons in Washington DC selling jerseys to Japan and failing to crack the starting lineup for very long.  His resurrection was promised when he was traded to the Lakers for a NOBODY and 3 2nd round draft picks.  After a couple starts.. The team then pulled off another trade that brought in multiple pieces including PF Jarred Vanderbilt.  Rui immediately dropped on the depth chart and played only 15 minutes and notched only 4 points against New Orleans.  Expect to see a few DNP’s if the Lakers health holds up.

Warriors: PF/SF Jonathan Kuminga. Possibly the most exciting and frustrating player on the Warriors roster.  If he can take the next step in his development he will give the Warriors TONS of roster options… but if he keeps up his tortuous up and down play?... He will hamstring the Warriors roster options.  Sometimes he plays really well… and sometimes he is practically invisible when he is out there.

Warriors: Steve “Lord of the Rings” Kerr

Lakers: Darvin “Hammy” Ham