Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, Preview and Odds - 04/29/2026

Game Time: TBD, Wednesday, April 29, 2026

Venue:  Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL 

Where to Watch:  TBD

DraftKings:  Moneyline:  Canadiens +145, Lightning -175; Over/Under:  5.5 goals

Bet365:  Moneyline:  Canadiens +145, Lightning -175; Over/Under:  5.5 goals

BetMGM:  Moneyline:  Canadiens +145, Lightning -175; Over/Under:  5.5 goals

Montreal Canadiens:  48-24-10 (3rd place, Atlantic Division)

Tampa Bay Lightning:  50-26-6 (2nd place, Atlantic Division)

Do not miss out on our expert handicapper analysis! Harry Gagnon is on a HOT STREAK in the NHL on an 18-12-1 NHL RUN for +$5,830 PROFIT! Make sure you check out his picks and many more from the expert handicappers featured in the Shop Picks section.

Montreal Canadiens:  5-4-1 last 10

Tampa Bay Lightning:  4-4-2 last 10

The Canadiens are entering the playoffs with 106 points, a 48-24-10 record overall, and they were 24-9-8 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Tampa Bay Lightning in their last game, losing that one at home 3-2. Cole Caufield and Zachary Bolduc each scored 1 goal for them in that one. Alexandre Texier, Kaiden Guhle, Lane Hutson, and Nick Suzuki each led the team in assists with 1 while Nick Suzuki led the team in shots on net in that game with 3. Jakub Dobeš was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 3 goals on 20 shots with 17 saves and a .850 save percentage. Their offense has scored 283 goals this season averaging 3.5 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 256 goals against them allowing 3.1 goals per game.

The Lightning are entering the playoffs with 106 points, a 50-26-6 record overall, and they were 26-14-1 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Montreal Canadiens in their last game, winning that one on the road 3-2. Brandon Hagel led the team in goals scored with 2 while Jake Guentzel scored 1 goal for them in that one. Janis Moser and Nikita Kucherov each led the team in assists with 2 while Brandon Hagel, Nikita Kucherov, Darren Raddysh, and Brayden Point each led the team in shots on net in that game with 3. Andrei Vasilevskiy was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 2 goals on 18 shots with 16 saves and a .889 sv percentage. Their offense has scored 290 goals this season averaging 3.5 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 231 goals against them allowing 2.8 goals per game.

The current betting odds have the Lightning listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Canadiens have looked good in their games this season with their 48-24-10 record overall which had them in the top half of their division in the East. They have been a great road team too with their 24-9-8 road record this year. Meanwhile, the Lightning have looked good in their games this season with their 50-26-6 record overall which had them right near the top of their division in the East. They have looked great on home ice too with their 26-14-1 home record this season. This is game 5 of a 7-game series between the 2nd seeded Lightning and the 3rd seeded Canadiens in the Atlantic for the 1st round of the NHL playoffs. This series is all evened up 2-2 after the Lightning won game 4 by a score of 3-2. The Canadiens came out strong in game 4 with a 2-1 lead in the series and they took an early 2-0 lead in that game, but the Lightning kept fighting back and eventually found their way back into the game. They got 1 back quickly after falling behind 2-0 and they scored 2 goals in the 3rd period to win that one 3-2. This has been a really tight series so far with all 4 games being decided by 1 goal and 3 of those going to OT, but now the Lightning have some momentum on their side going back home. The Canadiens looked like they were going to take complete control of this series, but that got ripped away from them and now they have the pressure of knowing they need to get a road game back again. The Lightning have looked a lot better on home ice this season and they have the momentum on their side from that win, along with a lot more playoff experience from the last few years. Look for the Lightning to step up on home ice and take their first series lead here. The best way to place a bet here is on the Lightning to win this game. 

Canadiens Lightning Prediction:  Our NHL Pick for Wednesday, April 29, 2026 (start time TBD) is Lightning 4 Canadiens 3.

Don't miss our champion handicappers free picks and expert hockey picks today. And if you enjoyed this Montreal Canadiens Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our weekly NHL predictions and previews.

Montreal Canadiens: 120-134 (+7.9 units) on the moneyline in all games. 72-77 (+20 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 to +200. 27-32 (+13.3 units) on the moneyline when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%). 10-1 OVER in a road game where the total is 5.5.

Tampa Bay Lightning: 146-114 (-10.7 units) on the moneyline in all games. 4-10 (-7.1 units) on the moneyline in the first round of the playoffs. 139-108 (-8.5 units) on the moneyline against mistake free teams - opponents average 4 power plays/game or less. 9-5 OVER in a home game where the total is 5.5.

Montreal Canadiens:  N. Dobson (D) Out - Thumb. P. Laine (RW) Out - Abdomen.

Tampa Bay Lightning:  C. D'Astous (D) Day To Day - Undisclosed. P. Holmberg (RW) Out - Upper-Body. V. Hedman (D) Out - Personal. 

“We put ourselves in situations where there’s a chance the (referee) is going to call a penalty. That’s a veteran team, they’re very good at drawing penalties. They’ve got talented players. They’re a tough team and we knew it was going to be a tough series, and we’re right in it. We’re in a battle. There’s a fine line between winning and losing in these games, but we’re battling.” - Martin St Louis after his team’s loss against the Lightning in the 4th game of this series on Sunday. 

“There was no panic in our room and on our bench. We just felt like we were playing well. We just had to get one shot to go in, and obviously, once we got one, it kind of felt like the game was coming to us.” - Jake Guentzel after their win against the Canadiens in game 4 of this series on Sunday. 

LW Cole Caufield

C Nick Suzuki

RW Juraj Slafkovský

LD Mike Matheson

RD Alexandre Carrier

G Jakub Dobes

LW Brandon Hagel

C Brayden Point

RW Nikita Kucherov

LD Janis Jérôme Moser

RD Darren Raddysh

G Andrei Vasilevskiy

Points: Nick Suzuki (101)

Goals: Cole Caufield (51)

Assists: Nick Suzuki (72)

GAA: Jacob Fowler (2.43)

Points: Nikita Kucherov (130)

Goals: Nikita Kucherov (44)

Assists: Nikita Kucherov (86)

GAA: Andrei Vasilevskiy (2.31)

Coaches:

Montreal Canadiens: Martin St. Louis (5th season)

Tampa Bay Lightning: Jon Cooper (14th season)