MLB World Series Futures Bet

If you’re looking for the team most likely to win the 2026 World Series, you can make a very easy case for the Dodgers. If you’re looking for value, however, you almost certainly have to look in a different direction.

For my money, the best value play right now is the Tampa Bay Rays.

The Rays are currently sitting at roughly +1400 to win the World Series, and I think that number is simply too high for a team that has put itself in position to have one of the best records in baseball. The Rays entered Thursday at 74-46 after Milwaukee’s loss to San Diego, giving Tampa Bay the best record in the majors.

Of course, that alone doesn't automatically make them a great futures bet. We’ve all seen teams dominate the regular season and then disappear in October.

But there are several things I really like about Tampa Bay.

First, this isn't some fluky team that suddenly caught fire in August. The Rays have been one of the best teams in baseball for most of the season, and they’ve continued to win despite playing in the extremely difficult AL East.

Tampa Bay didn't stand pat at the trade deadline, adding Freddy Peralta, giving an already competitive rotation another frontline arm. Peralta was acquired from the Mets specifically to strengthen the Rays' rotation for the stretch run and postseason.

Another reason I think we're seeing considerable value; the majority of bettors aren't nearly as interested in Tampa Bay as they should be.

BetMGM's latest futures numbers have the Dodgers at +155, Yankees +750, Brewers +1000, Braves +1100 and Red Sox +1100, while the Rays are sitting at +1400. That's a significant difference in price between Tampa Bay and the teams getting most of the attention.

The Dodgers are obviously loaded, especially after acquiring Tarik Skubal. But you're paying a massive premium for them. At +155, you're essentially being asked to believe Los Angeles has close to a 40% chance of winning the World Series. That's a ridiculous amount of juice to lay on any MLB postseason outcome.

The Yankees are another team I expect to attract plenty of futures money, but they have their own questions. Aaron Judge has missed significant time and his return timetable remains uncertain.

The Brewers are another team I like, and they deserve a ton of respect after putting together the best record in baseball for much of the season. But their price has already been hammered down considerably from where it was earlier in the season. Milwaukee was +2500 in late May before climbing all the way into the top tier of the futures market.

The Rays simply aren't getting the same amount of attention from bettors. BetMGM reported Tampa Bay ranked only 12th in ticket count and 13th in money among World Series futures, despite having the best record in the American League at the time of its latest report.

Obviously, there are risks. The Rays don't have the postseason pedigree of the Dodgers, and the AL East could give them a brutal path through October. Baseball is also the most volatile of the major sports when it comes to a playoff series. One bad pitching matchup, one injured starter or one cold week offensively can end a championship run. 

At +1400, I think we're getting enough of a potential return to make the risk worthwhile.