MLB Underdogs Cashing Big - What's Next?

Underdogs have been ruling the day in Major League Baseball in the past few weeks. In fact, since game number 87 of the season (end of June), bettors who bet on every single underdog on the moneyline would have an ROI of 7.4% since that time.

Let’s break it down even further. Home underdogs have absolutely been on fire. They are 45-34 straight up with a ridiculous ROI of 23.7%. The large underdogs have not been cashing. Underdogs of +150 or higher have gone 16-34 and have a negative ROI. It is the small dogs that have been cashing in at a high rate. Underdogs of +105 to +150 price are 77-67 straight up and carry an impressive ROI of 18.6%. 

If you’ve been betting the small underdogs at home you are feeling pretty great about yourself right now.

What should you expect next? Honestly, these are the types of trends that end up regressing toward the mean in the long term. It’s important to note that underdogs for the season as a whole are still negative. Early in the season the favorites were covering at a very high rate. In general, favorites have tended to do better than dogs when we get very late in the season (late August and September) because there are quite a few teams who have shut it down and are playing minor league players to see what they have for next year. 

This is NOT a trend you should try to chase on underdogs. The normal fluctuations of the market will continue to occur. If the betting market wants to start smashing underdogs based on these short term results, you would be better off looking for value on the favorites. Keep an eye on these types of results, but do not chase.