Missouri Tigers vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 09/26/2026

Game Time: 7:45 pm ET, Saturday, September 26, 2026

Venue:  Davis Wade Stadium, Mississippi State, MS

Where to Watch:  SEC Network

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Mizzou +6, MS State -6; Over/Under:  58.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Mizzou +6, MS State -6; Over/Under:  58.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Mizzou +6, MS State -6; Over/Under:  58.5 points

Missouri Tigers:  3-0 (0-0) (7th place, SEC)

Mississippi State Bulldogs:  3-0 (1-0) (1st place, SEC)

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Missouri Tigers:  won their last game at home against the Troy Trojans 27-17.

Mississippi State Bulldogs:  won their last game on the road against the South Carolina Gamecocks 41-34.

Missouri is entering this game with a 3-0 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their conference games too. They are 2-0 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against Troy 27-17. Austin Simmons was the starting QB and he completed 11/20 passes for 108 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Jamal Roberts led the team in rushing yards with 128 and 1 TD. Cayden Lee led the receivers with 47 receiving yards on 5 receptions. Santana Banner led the defense in that game with 15 tackles while Daeden Hopkins led the defense in sacks with 1.5. Sione Laulea came away with the only interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

Mississippi State is entering this game with a 3-0 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their conference games too. They are 1-0 in their home games, 2-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against South Carolina 41-34. Kamario Taylor was the starting QB and he completed 18/26 passes for 251 passing yards, 4 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Fluff Bothwell led the team in rushing yards with 115. Zion Ragins led the receivers with 61 receiving yards on 2 receptions and 1 TD. Amaree Williams led the defense in that game with 10 tackles while Amaree Williams, Will Whitson, and Jardin Gilbert each led the defense in sacks with 1. Jalen Smith and Dre Riley each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have Missouri listed as a 6 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Missouri has looked great in their games this season with their 3-0 record overall so far. They have been a good road team too with their 1-0 road record this year. Meanwhile, Mississippi State has looked great in their games this season with their 3-0 record overall and their 1-0 conference record which has them right at the top of the SEC. They have looked good on their home field too with their 1-0 home record this season. Mississippi State has been a really impressive team to start the season with 2 road wins over power 4 opponents, 1 of those being in conference. The offense has looked great with one of the more exciting QB's in the nation, but the defense has still been giving up a ton of points. They have already won more than half the number of games they won last season, but this is still one of the worst programs in the SEC over the last few years and as good as they have been this season, this is a lot of points to lay with a team that hasn't won a home SEC game in 4 years. Missouri is coming off a 27-17 win over Troy and didn't look great in that one, but Troy isn't a bad Sun Belt team and that was a tough situation for Mizzou. They were coming off a big road win over rival Kansas and had this 1st conference game of the season on deck, so they definitely didn't have their best effort in that one. Simmons has looked good in this offense though and Missouri also has a lot more talent on defense that is going to play a big role in this game. Look for Missouri to keep this a tight game if they don't win it outright. The best way to place a bet here is on Missouri to cover the spread in this game. 

Missouri Mississippi State Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, September 26, 2026 (7:45 pm ET start time) is Missouri 34 Mississippi State 27.

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Missouri Tigers: 41-26 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. 20-13 1H ATS in a road game where the total is between 56.5 and 63. 60-41 1H ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%). 40-25 UNDER after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. 36-26 UNDER versus good rushing teams - averaging 200  rushing yards/game or more. 

Mississippi State Bulldogs: 13-20 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread. 18-24 ATS off an upset win as an underdog. 15-22 1H ATS off a road win against a conference rival. 15-8 UNDER as a home favorite of 7 points or less. 46-29 UNDER after scoring 37 points or more last game.

Missouri Tigers:  G. Hoffman (TE) Out - Undisclosed. J. Brady (WR) Out - Undisclosed. C. Green (OG) Out - Undisclosed. A. Hardy (RB) Out - Leg.

Mississippi State Bulldogs:  J. Freeman (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. Z. Tillman (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Williams (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. B. Mitchell (WR) Out - Undisclosed.

“I told the guys in the locker room, it's hard to win college football games. It’s better than the alternative. We’re a 3-0 football team with a whole heck of a lot of room to improve, and that’s really got to be our focus. We’re going to celebrate the win tonight and come back to work tomorrow.” - Eli Drinkwitz after his team’s win against Troy in their last game. 

“There were a ton of opportunities for it not go right. But it went right.” - Jeff Lebby after his team’s win against South Carolina in their last game. 

WR Montgomery, Naeshaun

WR Goodie Sr., Caleb

WR Lee, Cayden

TE Norfleet, Brett

QB Simmons, Austin

RB Roberts, Jamal

WR Magee, Sanfrisco

WR Ragins, Zion

WR Evans III, Anthony

TE West, Sam

QB Taylor, Kamario

RB Bothwell, Fluff

Passing: Austin Simmons (652)

Rushing: Jamal Roberts (300)

Receiving: Donovan Olugbode (259)

Touchdowns: Donovan Olugbode (4)

Passing: Kamario Taylor (832)

Rushing: Fluff Bothwell (280)

Receiving: Anthony Evans III (294)

Touchdowns: Anthony Evans III (3)

Coaches:

Missouri Tigers: Eli Drinkwitz (7th season)

Mississippi State Bulldogs: Jeff Lebby (3rd season)