Missouri State Bears vs SMU Mustangs Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 09/26/2026

Game Time: 9:00 pm ET, Saturday, September 26, 2026

Venue:  Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX

Where to Watch:  ACC Network

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Missouri State +34.5, SMU -34.5; Over/Under:  59.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Missouri State +34.5, SMU -34.5; Over/Under:  59.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Missouri State +34.5, SMU -34.5; Over/Under:  60.5 points

Missouri State Bears:  1-2 (0-0) (5th place, C-USA)

SMU Mustangs:  2-1 (1-1) (8th place, ACC)

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Missouri State Bears:  lost their last game at home against the Marshall Thundering Herd 30-24.

SMU Mustangs:  lost their last game on the road against the Louisville Cardinals 41-31.

Missouri State is entering this game with a 1-2 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their conference games too. They are 1-1 in their home games, 0-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against Marshall 30-24. Skyler Locklear was the starting QB and he completed 19/28 passes for 309 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Ramone Green Jr. led the team in rushing yards with 76. Isaiah Myers led the receivers with 141 receiving yards on 7 receptions. Jared Lloyd led the defense in that game with 13 tackles while no one on the defense recorded a sack for them. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

SMU is entering this game with a 2-1 record overall and they have a 1-1 record in their conference games too. They are 1-0 in their home games, 1-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against Louisville 41-31. Kevin Jennings was the starting QB and he completed 24/35 passes for 222 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. Kendrick Raphael led the team in rushing yards with 197 and 3 TDs. Yamir Knight led the receivers with 70 receiving yards on 7 receptions and 1 TD. Tyren Polley Jr. led the defense in that game with 8 tackles while no one on the defense recorded a sack for them. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have SMU listed as a 34.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. SMU has looked good in their games this season with their 2-1 record overall, but their 1-1 conference record has them right in the middle of the ACC. They have looked better on their home field though with their 1-0 home record this season. Meanwhile, Missouri State hasn't looked great in their games this season with their 1-2 record overall so far. They haven't been a great road team either with their 0-1 road record this year. Missouri State is coming off a 30-24 loss to Marshall at home and they don't have a ton of talent this year. They made the jump to FBS last season and they weren't that bad, but now they are in their 1st year with a new head coach and have lost a lot of their players from last season too. They don't have the talent to compete with a team like SMU either, especially with SMU coming off their 1st loss of the year. SMU is coming off a 41-31 loss to Louisville in their last one, but their offense looked great. Their offense has looked great all season with a solid QB leading the way and last week they just got edged out by a better team in the conference. They will be looking to bounce back at home though and take out their frustrations on this lesser opponent. They have been challenged this season too, already playing 2 conference games, and both of those games were on the road. SMU's defense is going to look a lot better at home against this weaker opponent and Missouri State definitely doesn't have the talent to stop this SMU offense once it gets rolling. The best way to place a bet here is on SMU to cover the spread in this game. 

Missouri State SMU Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, September 26, 2026 (9:00 pm ET start time) is SMU 56 Missouri State 14.

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Missouri State Bears: 5-9 ATS as an underdog. 1-5 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record. 3-6 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses. 6-3 UNDER versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 4.75 rushing yards/carry or more. 10-4 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%).

SMU Mustangs: 9-5 ATS in home lined games. 8-4 ATS after playing their last game on the road. 4-0 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record. 8-4 UNDER after playing their last game on the road. 11-4 UNDER in games played on a grass field.

Missouri State Bears:  M. Cope (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed.

SMU Mustangs:  E. Kelly (RB) Probable - Undisclosed. M. Uter (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Rhodes (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. L. Rhodes (RB) Out - Knee.

“We have to finish the drives in the redzone, for sure. Those are good things to take note of and be aware.” - Casey Woods after his team’s loss against Marshall in their last game. 

“We won everything but the score and the turnover battle, and that’s kind of the story today.” - Rhett Lashlee after his team’s loss against Louisville in their last game. 

WR Miller, Mekhi

WR Cope, Makai

WR Robinson, Jmariyae

TE Askren, Jeron

QB Locklear, Skyler

RB Green Jr., Ramone

FB Lair, Connor

WR Cooper, Jalen

WR Smith, Yannick

WR Knight, Yamir 

TE Melin Ohrstrom, Theo

QB Jennings, Kevin

RB Raphael, Kendrick

Passing: Skyler Locklear (597)

Rushing: Ramone Green Jr. (159)

Receiving: Isaiah Myers (296)

Touchdowns: Breezy Dubar (2)

Passing: Kevin Jennings (989)

Rushing: Kendrick Raphael (275)

Receiving: Yannick Smith (201)

Touchdowns: Kendrick Raphael (4)

Coaches:

Missouri State Bears: Casey Woods (1st season)

SMU Mustangs: Rhett Lashlee (5th season)