Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Texas Longhorns Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 10/31/2026

Game Time: 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, October 31, 2026

Venue:  Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  MS State +20.5, Texas -20.5; Over/Under:  50.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  MS State +20.5, Texas -20.5; Over/Under:  50.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  MS State +20, Texas -20; Over/Under:  50.5 points

Mississippi State Bulldogs:  4-3 (2-3) (11th place, SEC)

Texas Longhorns:  5-2 (2-2) (10th place, SEC)

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Mississippi State Bulldogs:  lost their last game at home against the Oklahoma Sooners 23-15.

Texas Longhorns:  won their last game at home against the Mississippi Rebels 34-27.

Mississippi State is entering this game with a 4-3 record overall and they have a 2-3 record in their conference games too. They are 2-2 in their home games, 2-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against Oklahoma 23-15. Kamario Taylor was the starting QB and he completed 2/5 passes for 10 passing yards before leaving injured and getting replaced by Parker Puckett who completed 17/24 passes for 158 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Fluff Bothwell led the team in rushing yards with 111. Sanfrisco Magee led the receivers with 65 receiving yards on 3 receptions and 1 TD. Tyler Lockhart and Fatt Forrest each led the defense in that game with 10 tackles while Jaray Bledsoe led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

Texas is entering this game with a 5-2 record overall and they have a 2-2 record in their conference games too. They are 4-1 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against Ole Miss 34-27. Arch Manning was the starting QB and he completed 18/30 passes for 212 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. Raleek Brown led the team in rushing yards with 157. Ryan Wingo led the receivers with 111 receiving yards on 7 receptions and 1 TD. Jelani McDonald led the defense in that game with 11 tackles while no one on the defense recorded a sack for them. Jelani McDonald, Justin Cryer, and Rasheem Biles each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have Texas listed as a 20.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Texas has looked good in their games this season with their 5-2 record overall and their 2-2 conference record which has them right in the middle of the SEC. They have looked great on their home field too with their 4-1 home record this season. Meanwhile, Mississippi State has looked good in their games this season with their 4-3 record overall, but their 2-3 conference record has them in the bottom half of the SEC. They have been a good road team though with their 2-1 road record this year. Mississippi State got out to a really hot start this season and they looked like they were really going to turn things around, but they got blown out by Alabama in their first big game and everything has fallen apart since then. They looked like they were going to have one of the best QB's in the SEC this season, but Kamario Taylor is out for the season now and he takes all of Mississippi State's hopes and dreams with him. They are coming off a 23-15 loss to Oklahoma in their last one and their offense hasn't looked nearly as good without Taylor. They don't really have a good defense to keep them in games either. Texas has had some rocky games this year and took a bad 1st loss of the season against Oklahoma, even losing the next week, but they still have a ton of talent that makes them one of the best teams in the nation and they have shown that by the way they play in big games. They have a great win over Ohio State and they are coming off another great win over Ole Miss in their last one, winning 34-27 in a game that they were in control of for a lot of it. Texas still has one of the best defenses in the nation and Mississippi State is going to have a lot of trouble on the road without their star QB. The best way to place a bet here is on Texas to cover the spread in this game. 

Mississippi State Texas Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 31, 2026 (7:30 pm ET start time) is Texas 35 Mississippi State 10.

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Mississippi State Bulldogs: 9-4 ATS in road lined games. 6-2 ATS after 3 or more consecutive straight up losses. 5-1 ATS versus good defensive teams - allowing 4.5 yards/play or less. 9-4 UNDER in road lined games. 5-1 UNDER versus good defensive teams - allowing 4.5 yards/play or less. 

Texas Longhorns: 2-6 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. 7-13 ATS against conference opponents. 4-9 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. 10-5 UNDER when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 10-5 UNDER after playing a game at home.

Mississippi State Bulldogs:  A. Williams (WR) Questionable - Leg. J. Freeman (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. F. Bothwell (RB) Questionable - Foot. K. Taylor (QB) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Williams (DL) Out - Leg. B. Mitchell (WR) Out - Undisclosed.

Texas Longhorns:  C. Simmons (DL) Questionable - Ankle. H. Smothers (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. McCutcheon (WR) Questionable - Illness. T. Goosby (OG) Out - Knee. Z. Williams (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Lockett (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed.

“Their chunk plays, offensively, to me was the difference in the game. That and third downs defensively, I loved our effort, our attitude, our physicality. I thought we attacked. We gave up chunks at the wrong times, and those moments, they were frustrating.” - Jeff Lebby after his team’s loss against Oklahoma in their last game. 

“I would be the first one to tell you we were not perfect tonight. We had an opportunity to be closer to perfect, but we get sack, fumble, they get a touchdown, they get momentum.” - Steve Sarkisian after his team’s win against Ole Miss in their last game. 

WR Magee, Sanfrisco

WR Ragins, Zion

WR Evans III, Anthony

TE West, Sam

QB Puckett, Parker

RB Bothwell, Fluff

WR Wingo, Ryan

WR Bishop Jr., Jermaine

WR Mosley V, Emmett

TE Masunas, Michael

QB Manning, Arch

RB Smothers, Hollywood

Passing: Kamario Taylor (1,460)

Rushing: Fluff Bothwell (514)

Receiving: Anthony Evans III (647)

Touchdowns: Sanfrisco Magee (6)

Passing: Arch Manning (1,507)

Rushing: Raleek Brown (422)

Receiving: Ryan Wingo (456)

Touchdowns: Cam Coleman (6)

Coaches:

Mississippi State Bulldogs: Jeff Lebby (3rd season)

Texas Longhorns: Steve Sarkisian (6th season)