Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Texas A&M Aggies Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 10/04/2025

Game Time: 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, October 4, 2025

Venue:  Kyle Field, College Station, TX

Where to Watch:  SEC Network

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  MS State +14.5, Texas A&M -14.5; Over/Under:  55.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  MS State +14, Texas A&M -14; Over/Under:  55.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  MS State +14, Texas A&M -14; Over/Under:  55.5 points

Mississippi State Bulldogs:  4-1 (0-1) (11th place, SEC)

Texas A&M Aggies:  4-0 (1-0) (4th place, SEC)

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Mississippi State Bulldogs:  lost their last game at home against the Tennessee Volunteers 41-34 in overtime.

Texas A&M Aggies:  won their last game at home against the Auburn Tigers 16-10.

Mississippi State is entering this game with a 4-1 record overall and they have a 0-1 record in their conference games too. They are 3-1 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against Tennessee 41-34 in OT. Blake Shapen was the starting QB and he completed 18/29 passes for 180 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Fluff Bothwell led the team in rushing yards with 134 and 2 TDs. Ayden Williams led the receivers with 49 receiving yards on 1 reception. Zakari Tillman led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Zakari Tillman and Darron Reed Jr. each led the defense in sacks with 1. Zakari Tillman and Jahron Manning each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

Texas A&M is entering this game with a 4-0 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their conference games too. They are 3-0 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against Auburn 16-10. Marcel Reed was the starting QB and he completed 15/22 passes for 207 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Le'Veon Moss led the team in rushing yards with 139 and 1 TD. KC Concepcion led the receivers with 113 receiving yards on 7 receptions. Taurean York led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Taurean York, Dayon Hayes, Daymion Sanford, Cashius Howell, and DJ Hicks each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have Texas A&M listed as a 14.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Texas A&M has looked great in their games this season with their 4-0 record overall and their 1-0 conference record which has them right near the top of the SEC. They are also ranked like one of the best teams in the nation and they have the talent to be one, but now they also have the right head coach to move this program in the right direction. Their defense hasn't looked great this season, but the offense has been rolling in their games, putting up a ton of points, and their defense looked a lot better in their last one with a 16-10 win over Auburn. Meanwhile, Mississippi State has looked really good in their games this season with their 4-1 record overall, but their 0-1 conference record has them lower in the SEC. They are off a 41-34 loss in OT to Tennessee in their last one and they looked great in that game. They have improved a lot this season and their offense has been rolling, but their defense hasn't looked great and as much as they have improved from last season, this is still one of the worst teams in the SEC. Now they are playing their first road conference game of the season against a Texas A&M team that has been rolling in their games and this one isn't going to be that close. Texas A&M has the talent to jump on Mississippi State early and keep them down for most of this game. The best way to place a bet here is on Texas A&M to cover the spread in this game. 

Mississippi State Texas A&M Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 4, 2025 (7:30 pm ET start time) is Texas A&M 45 MS State 17.

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Mississippi State Bulldogs: 6-2 ATS after a 2 game home stand. 5-1 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%). 6-1 ATS vs. good offensive  teams - scoring 31 or more points/game. 6-1 OVER when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 10-3 OVER off a loss against a conference rival.

Texas A&M Aggies: 9-18 ATS in all lined games. 6-11 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 4-10 ATS after playing a game at home. 3-6 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record. 10-3 OVER off a home win. 12-4 OVER after playing a game at home.

Mississippi State Bulldogs:  D. Gullette (LB) Doubtful - Undisclosed. B. Steen (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. W. Whitson (DL) Out - Undisclosed.

Texas A&M Aggies:  S. Williams (LB) Out - Ankle. B. Anderson (S) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Myles (WR) Out - Leg.

“They had sacks and there were other times where it was just pressure, and it affected Blake. They did a good job. We’ve got to play better and smarter. We’ve got guys that are good enough to do it and we’ve got to go do it.” - Jeff Lebby after his team’s loss against Tennessee in their last game. 

“We won two games without playing our best football. That is a testament to character and culture and just grinding.” - Mike Elko after his team’s win against Auburn in their last game. 

WR Thompson, Brenen

WR Mosley, Jordan

WR Evans III, Anthony

TE Traore, Seydou

QB Shapen, Blake

RB Booth, Davon

WR Craver, Mario

WR Bussey, Terry

WR Concepcion, KC

TE Niblack, Amari

QB Reed, Marcel

RB Moss, Le'Veon

Passing: Blake Shapen (1,064)

Rushing: Fluff Bothwell (405)

Receiving: Brenen Thompson (324)

Touchdowns: Fluff Bothwell (6)

Passing: Marcel Reed (1,076)

Rushing: Le'Veon Moss (307)

Receiving: Mario Craver (477)

Touchdowns: Le'Veon Moss (5)

Coaches:

Mississippi State Bulldogs: Jeff Lebby (2nd season)

Texas A&M Aggies: Mike Elko (2nd season)